The question of the emergence and possible future of bibliometrics: some examples from the world history of libraries

Markova Elizaveta Vladimirovna ORCID: 0009-0009-6682-2000 Postgraduate student; Department of Socio-Political Communications; National Research Nizhny Novgorod State University named after N.I. Lobachevsky Head of the Scientific and Fiction Literature Service Department; Scientific Library; N.I. Pirogov RNIMU of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation 121500, Russia, Moscow, 100, 1/3, sq. 1117 markovaev11@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

Bibliometry as a part of scientometry is today an integral part of the activities of scientific libraries around the world. The assessment of publication activity and scientific effectiveness remains one of the priorities in modern science. Bibliometric analysis is currently used as one of the important tools for searching for historical and other materials necessary for research.

In recent years, many researchers have continued to use bibliometric tools to prepare their scientific papers. Not only historians [Sinegubov, Tsalikova, Pakhotina, Sabayeva, Kungurova, 2024; Tarasov, 2024] and librarians [Mutyev, 2024; Sladkova, Lopatina, 2024], but also political scientists [Zhokhova, 2024], military experts [Bugaev, 2024], economists [Kozyr, Bykanova, Voronov, 2024; Kopteva, Igishev, Sbitnev, 2024; Terekhov, 2024; Lobova, 2024], IT technology specialists [Bochkov, 2024; Kalimoldaeva, Niyazova, Daurenbek, Aitzhanov, 2024], scientists [Grinev, 2024; Guskov, 2024; Lavrik, 2024; Turgel, Chernova, 2024]. jurists [Yershova, Kosova, 2024], philosophers [Grishechkina, Suslov, 2024], doctors [Sharnin, 2024] resort to the instrument of bibliometry in their scientific reasoning.

Modern aspects of scientometry are described in detail in recent works by B.I. Bedny, E.O. Polovinkin, and N.V. Rybakov. In particular, the issues of measuring the effectiveness of scientific activity, social aspects of scientific communication and evaluation of the effectiveness of research activities, and transformational processes in modern Russian graduate school are highlighted in detail [Poor, 2013; Poor, Polovinkin, Rybakov, 2017; Poor, Rybakov, 2024].

The author of the concept of scientometry, V.V. Nalimov, who together with Z.N. Mulchenko published in 1969 the world's first complete monograph on quantitative methods of studying the development of science, devotes a separate chapter of this monograph to indexes of scientific references [Nalimov, Mulchenko, 1969]. Indexes of scientific references are bibliographic reference books in which bibliographic references from a pre-selected array of journals are grouped in an orderly manner. V.V. Nalimov historically points to the Paris Bibliography of 1771-1772 as the first reference book of its kind in Western Europe. This reference book was a collection of bibliographies of book reviews from two journals, a distinctive feature of which is the ordering not by reviews, but by the books to which the reviews are directed. In the USA, for the first time in 1873, a kind of prototype of the citation index appeared – the "Sheppard Index of References to Federal Legislation." A special feature of this index is that, in addition to listing legal precedents, it provides a list of publications where you can find these precedents with links to court decisions [Tronin, Tibushkina, 2020]. The bibliographic index of The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, published in 1949, with links to the journal's publications since 1931, can rightfully be called the first closest prototype of the citation index [Solodkin, 2013].

In Russia, V.I. Mezhov (1830/31-1894) began to keep the first record of reviews, using it in his bibliographic work. K.N. Derunov became the author of the first fundamental "Consolidated index of journal reviews in the period 1847-1907.", which was a valuable appendix to the second edition of the "Approximate Library Catalog" 1908-1911. [Borisova and Shichaokina, 2015].

In his extensive article on the history of scientometry and its modern problems, researcher Lazarev V.S. [Lazarev, 2020] discussed the topic of scientometry in detail, paying special attention to the problem of lowering the quality of scientific publications in pursuit of their quantity. The article also provides a clear understanding of the methods of scientometric and bibliometric research. Despite the fact that the researcher described in detail the possible consequences of these problems for science in the future, the article almost completely ignored such an important component of the topic as the library's function in bibliometry. The objective of our study will be to expand the research of V.S. Lazarev by addressing the issue of the prerequisites for the emergence of bibliometrics based on some examples from the world history of libraries. A study of the array of scientific publications in recent years has revealed the relevance of this topic for research due to the catastrophically small number of references to it by scientists. Nevertheless, the role of the library as a center of knowledge and education does not change temporologically, and the importance of the library institute, including within the framework of bibliometrics, does not become less significant.

Object and methods of research

The article provides an overview of some historical sources in order to address the issue of the emergence and possible future of bibliometrics using some examples from the world history of libraries. The object of the research is bibliometrics and libraries of the world from the time of Ancient Nineveh to the present. The problem-chronological method was used to study the issue of the emergence and possible future of bibliometrics using some examples from the world history of libraries. The essence of the research lies in the basic principles of historical knowledge. Historicism and scientific research are involved in solving the issue of the emergence and possible future of bibliometrics using some examples from the world history of libraries. At the same time, the volumes of historical materials that have been discovered and published to date are clearly taken into account. Methods, both general scientific and specialized, form the basis of the methodology of this study. This study used approaches to compare and analyze historical sources, as well as their descriptions. Using the described methods of working with archival documents, based on available sources, the issue of the emergence and possible future of bibliometry is being solved using some examples from the world history of libraries.

The results and their discussion

1. Prerequisites for the development of bibliometrics in libraries

There is still no consensus among experts on the time of the appearance of bibliometrics [Sviridova, 2013]. Some researchers claim that 1923 can be called the year of the birth of bibliometrics. It was then that the so-called statistical bibliography first appeared. Bibliometry is part of the general concept of informometry, which also includes such fields of knowledge as scientometry, cybermetry and webometry. It is necessary to separate these concepts from each other for further operation. If bibliometry is considered in the scientific community to be a quantitative tool, the main function of which is to support the choice of certain decisions on scientific policy issues, control the development of scientific fields, and the financial component of scientific research, then scientometry, in turn, is designed to function as a specific field of scientific research, within which science is studied using quantitative methods. In addition, scientometry is a scientific discipline designed to deal with the development of science by measuring and statistically processing scientific information by recognizing the number of scientific publications over a certain period, the percentage of citations, etc. [Yelizarov, 2020].

Bibliometrics, having received its precise scientific status relatively recently, nevertheless manifested itself to one degree or another in the history of its main institution, the library, earlier. Bibliometrics considers scientific publications ordered by groups of authors, journals, thematic headings, countries, etc. to be the object of its study, which, most often, can be found in libraries.

Within the framework of our research, it is impossible to fully cover the world history of libraries from the beginning of the opening of the very first of them to the present day in order to trace the correlation of the bibliometric component of their function. A review of several historical sources is intended to demonstrate some of the prerequisites for the emergence of bibliometrics using the example of the activities of a library in the past, as well as to try to make an assumption about the fate of the library as the main institute of bibliometry in the future.

If bibliometrics officially dates back to 1923, then the prerequisites for its appearance in libraries should be sought much earlier. Here are some striking examples of the beginnings of bibliometrics in libraries of the past.

In our opinion, the famous library of Ashurbanipal, king of Ancient Nineveh, is the first vivid example of the background to the emergence of bibliometrics. Ashurbanipal was considered the most enlightened ruler of Assyria, thanks to the magnificent library he collected in the 7th century BC. It is worth paying attention to the research that speaks about the unusual order he established in the library at that time. At that time, this order was akin to new technologies. Several tens of thousands of clay tablets were kept in accordance with the exact principles of library grading. It is thanks to this order that perhaps thirty thousand tablets have managed to survive to our time. The tablets contained almost all the knowledge recorded by anyone and ever in Ancient Mesopotamia of that time. The meticulous systematization of the Ashurbanipal library's collections serves as a vivid prerequisite for the emergence of modern bibliometrics in the future. All the "clay books" of Mesopotamia and Ancient Babylon were carefully copied by scribes by order of the ruler. After that, the rewritten document was carefully checked and stamped with a special stamp "Copied and verified according to the ancient original." In the event that reconciliation was difficult or impossible, a note was made with the words "erased" or "I do not know." "Clay books", like modern paper books, were fastened together, forming book blocks with clay sheets with an ordinal number on each and an indication of the name - the initial words of the first tablet. An interesting way to arrange the "fund" of the library of Ancient Nineveh. The "clay books" were arranged according to the branches of knowledge. The ancient bibliometric method was used to search for a particular book. It consisted in the fact that with the help of a kind of "catalog", the forerunner of modern bibliometric indexes, it was possible to find out not only the name of the book you were looking for, but also the number of lines on the plate, as well as the room and shelf number of the storage. In this way, all the books were copied and arranged in the fund. And not only books, but all the letters of the king, indicating the name of the messenger who delivered this or that letter. It was in the library of Ancient Nineveh that stamps appeared for quick copying, which also anticipated book printing. From the surviving copies of the letters, the researchers learned that the ruler was personally engaged in replenishing the fund, selecting books and organizing the library, devoting a lot of time and effort to this task. Nowadays, this is about how bibliometric analysis takes place, and in the ancient library of King Ashurbanipal, servants used wooden boxes where tablets with information about each book were kept with a stamped address mark "Palace of Ashurbanipal, king of the universe, king of Assyria." Thanks to such a clear bibliometric systematization, a large amount of medical literature of that time has come down to us (ancient recipes from medical books, spells and spells), facts about the everyday life of Ancient Mesopotamia, as well as ancient Sumerian mythology, for example, the Epic of Gilgamesh [Ruziev, Abdurakhmanova, 2024].

Western Europe of the Middle Ages is known for the beginning of the development of universities. It was in universities that the first organized collections of books, libraries, began to appear. At the same time, the first rules for using the library and the first bibliometric catalogs were developed and implemented. For example, the creator of the Sorbonne library's first catalog, which dates back to 1289, emphasized that its extensive collection contains numerous manuscripts with damaged scrolls and title pages. Without such a catalog, the library will not be able to demonstrate its riches. It was thanks to this catalog that all students who are interested in science had the opportunity to find out what materials are in the library, who was their author and what they are called.

An interesting example of medieval bibliometrics is the activities in the 15th century to organize the library of the Duke of Urbino, Federigo da Montefeltro (1422-1482). His library consisted of over a thousand books, 772 of which were codices. His rich library in Urbino was decorated with portraits of famous poets and philosophers, and manuscript copyists worked inside. Accurate bibliometric work on searching for a particular document was also their responsibility, enshrined in the world's first librarian's job description, which Herzog developed independently. The librarian's professional standard was high and clearly spelled out. Requirements such as bibliometric order in the library and catalog, scrupulous search and recording of issued documents in a special journal (which can be called the forerunner of modern bibliometric indexes), protection of the fund from damage and ensuring its accessibility were combined with the requirements for the personality of the librarian himself – representativeness, pure speech, scholarship and pleasant character [Harutyunyan, 2023].

In Russia, the forerunner of modern bibliometrics can be called the activity of the first state library in St. Sophia's Cathedral in Kiev. Prince Yaroslav the Wise of Kiev (978-1054) decided to establish the capital of Russia at that time as the main competitor to Constantinople. The magnificent Church of St. Sophia, built by him, was supposed to serve this purpose. It was in St. Sophia's Church that scribes kept chronicles, received foreign ambassadors, and, according to some researchers, housed the first state library. Unfortunately, it has not been preserved to our time. But it is known that the reign of Yaroslav the Wise in Russia was a time when more books were written than were written in Russia before that time. Information about the creation and creator of this library can be found in the "Tale of Bygone Years" (1037): "Yaroslav loved books, and he put a lot of his writings in the church of St. Sophia, which he created himself." Exact information about the number of books in the library is still not available. Researchers make a spread of 500 to 1,000 books. The fund included natural science and Slavic works, including the famous "The Word of Law and Grace" by Metropolitan Hilarion. In addition, the library consisted of prophetic discourses, evangelical and apostolic sources, teachings, historical stories and chronicles, and the lives of saints. Bibliometry consisted of systematization in order to find a book by a particular author, as well as to separate books and authors that could be stored in the fund from the forbidden ones. It is known that a list of "false" books of about 90 copies circulated in the 11th century in its second half. The books were translated into Greek, Latin, and Bulgarian, handwritten, and bound. It was this kind of meticulous work that allowed not only to sow a rich harvest of the workshops of chroniclers throughout Russia and give the rudiments of wisdom, but also to pass them on to descendants in the form of subsequently created journalistic and literary works and chronicle collections [Tereshkina, Semenova, 2024].

In Russia of the XVI century, Orthodox monasteries can be called centers of enlightenment. The monastery libraries of the Russian North are a striking example of the beginnings of bibliometrics. It is thanks to the bibliometric inventories of monastic library collections that have come down to us that modern researchers have the opportunity to obtain information about the composition of the book collections of each of the forty monasteries.

Unfortunately, within the framework of our research it is impossible to highlight all the relevant examples of bibliometric analysis in libraries of the past. But the above examples make it clear that the field of research on the prerequisites of bibliometrics in libraries of the past is not limited.

2. Comparison of modern citation databases and the legacy of the past in libraries

An attempt to compare modern citation databases and the legacy of the past in libraries suggests the following conclusions.

The database in the form of a wooden box with clay tablets provides a reference to the future appearance of the Web of Science citation database. Just like the legacy of the library of King Ashurbanipal, the modern citation database is designed to serve the purpose of freely accessing a large number of written materials. If the clay tablets preserved data on medicine, history and folklore of Ancient Nineveh, then the modern database stores many scientific publications and conference materials. Another similar fact that is relevant at the moment should be noted. Clay tablets had a limit on the amount of data stored, although researchers of ancient libraries claim that they reflected all the necessary information of the Sumerians. Similarly, the Web of Science citation database currently covers a huge range of social sciences and humanities, but it misses some scientific publications, namely books. In our opinion, scientific progress will undoubtedly solve this problem, and the fate of ancient libraries – to be preserved in exactly the amount that was at the time of the fateful events for this or that ancient library - will not affect the modern base.

The main rival of the Web of Science citation database is Scopus. Just like the system in the 15th-century Duke of Urbino Federigo da Montefeltro Library, this modern database of scientific citation data strictly follows the canons of its rival, organizing scientific publications and materials from symposia and conferences for better search and scientific progress. The bibliometric order in the Urbino Library, especially the journal for strict records, can serve as an example and forerunner of the modern citation database.

Another modern Google Scholar citation database is interesting for our research because, like the library of Prince Yaroslav the Wise and the libraries of monasteries of the Russian North, it does not directly collect data directly. The Google Scholar citation database searches the Internet, similar to the method of searching and collecting books "all over the world", followed by their rewriting and ordering in these ancient libraries [Gonashvili, 2020].

In addition, it must be admitted that the information discovered by historians and researchers, passed down from generation to generation, are the main engines of the scientific process. Based on the practical developments of the past, modern specialists create the present and the future of science.

It is quite possible that if the library of Ancient Nineveh had not been opened, if there had been no historical information about the libraries of Duke Federigo da Montefeltro of Urbino, Prince Yaroslav the Wise, monasteries of the Russian North and many others, modern bibliometrics would not have received its beginning and development. Similarly, if there were no rudiments of bibliometrics in the ancient libraries of the world, modern science would have much less opportunities for research and development of progress.

3. Prerequisites for the future of bibliometrics in libraries

Speaking about the possible future of library bibliometry, it is necessary to refer to the opinions of those researchers who believe that bibliometric analysis is currently the highest priority in the work of modern scientific libraries, which indicates the future prospects of such a direction of their functioning. Some major Russian libraries, such as the Natural Sciences Library of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the State Scientific and Technical Library of Russia, and the library of the Higher School of Economics, have recently established bibliometric research departments. Bibliometrics has also become a new area of work for European university libraries, which employ specialist bibliometrics analysts and have opened bibliometric centers.

In addition to organizing scientific publications, bibliometrics departments help to detect and eliminate such violations in the scientific field as forgery, falsification and plagiarism. Specialists are able to trace the actions of artificial physics by printing and reprinting changed surnames of authors of certain publications, titles of scientific papers and publishing houses by analyzing cross-references [Mokhnacheva, Tsvetkova, 2018].

Equally important is the question of the competence of specialists involved in bibliometric issues in libraries. For example, a recent survey of Swedish librarians showed that librarians' competence in bibliometrics is in the first place in terms of the percentage of concern among specialists. Librarians put the problems of collaboration and communication in the team in second place, and the risk of getting erroneous results in third place [Galyavieva, 2012]. In our opinion, the last two problems stem from the first one. The solution would be to include a separate course on bibliometrics in the educational program of future librarians, as well as in professional development and retraining programs.

At the same time, in some major European libraries, such as those of Oxford and Cambridge, there were prerequisites for the beginning of a gradual abandonment of bibliometric research [Galyavieva, 2015]. Experts attribute this phenomenon to the fact that too much attention to scientometric and bibliometric indicators of candidates for professorial positions is not useful when choosing one or another of them for a responsible position. The number of publications and citations of a candidate does not always mean the importance of these scientific articles for science and society as a whole, and the author's research fecundity does not always correlate with the scientific nature and necessity of his research. In addition, in the case of a comparison between an author or a university, the result is not always relevant, since the fields of science may not match.

Nevertheless, in our opinion, it is not necessary to abandon bibliometric research in the future. In our opinion, scientific progress will also contribute to the development of bibliometric analysis. In the near future, it is expected to improve the quality of such activities by introducing functional neural networks into library bibliometry. The GPT neural network (currently in its fourth generation) is based on the transformer architecture and is capable of generating new ones based on the analysis of previous language elements. The fifth generation of GPT with much greater potential is under development, but soon it will allow you to quickly detect and respond to hyperthreats, communicate with users on highly specialized topics, and most importantly, protect information from abuse and fraud.

The use of the latest generation of neural networks in bibliometric expertise opens up new horizons for improving the efficiency and accessibility of this type of analysis. Modern neural network models trained on huge amounts of text data have impressive capabilities in natural language processing. They are able not only to quickly and accurately identify keywords and phrases, but also to analyze the context, identify hidden meanings, identify stylistic features, and even recognize the emotional coloring of the text. This significantly exceeds the capabilities of traditional methods based on manual analysis. Thanks to the integration of such neural networks into library systems, experts will have access to a powerful tool for searching and analyzing information according to the following model: a specialist working on an expert examination makes a request to the system, and the neural network instantly selects only relevant information from a huge amount of data – literature, judicial practice, dictionaries, specialized databases– hypotheses put forward. This will significantly reduce the time required to conduct research, allowing the expert to focus on interpreting the data rather than searching for it. Moreover, the use of a new generation of neural networks will help to increase the objectivity of expertise. Algorithms, unlike humans, are free from subjective biases and emotional influence. They process information impartially, providing the expert with an objective picture. This increases the reliability of conclusions and reduces the likelihood of errors. Cheaper analysis is directly related to increased efficiency. Automation of information search and processing reduces the time spent on expertise, which reduces its cost. This makes bibliometric examinations more accessible to a wide range of citizens, including those who previously could not afford such services due to their high prices. More people will now have access to professional text analysis, for example, in the context of civil disputes, criminal investigations, or academic research. However, it is important to understand that a neural network is a tool, not an independent expert. Human analysis and professional interpretation of the results obtained with the help of artificial intelligence remain critically important. A neural network can quickly process a huge amount of data and produce initial results, but the final conclusion must be justified and confirmed by an expert, taking into account all the nuances of a particular case. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the joint work of humans and artificial intelligence in this area in order to maximize the usefulness and accuracy of linguistic expertise.

The results of the study

Some examples of the prerequisites of bibliometric analysis from the world history of libraries, listed above, give a picture of the fact that bibliometry began its countdown at a much earlier time than some researchers believe. Our work somewhat expands the research of V.S. Lazarev, describing a broader historical panorama of the development of bibliometrics through the prism of the development of libraries around the world.

The results of the above can be called the following:

1. Catalogues and card files of libraries of the Ancient World and the Middle Ages can be designated as bibliometric in their functions.

2. Catalogues and card files of the Ancient World and the Middle Ages were compiled and used, among other things, for bibliometric purposes.

3. Ancient and medieval librarians possessed some knowledge correlating with the knowledge needed for bibliometric analysis.

4. Modern bibliometry in libraries has similarities with the bibliometry of the past.

5. Bibliometric catalogs and card files of libraries of the past are reflected and continued in bibliometric catalogs and card files of modern libraries.

6. Bibliometric library research cannot be completely abandoned in the future for a number of reasons related to the suppression of illegal actions with intellectual property.

7. The future of bibliometrics is closely connected not only with the past, but also with the development of progress and the future of libraries.

Conclusion

The information technology age, which began at the end of the 20th century, has radically changed the approach to the study and evaluation of literature and knowledge. Bibliometrics, as a scientific discipline, masters the methods of quantitative information analysis, covering a wide range of data — from the number of publications to the citation of authors. This phenomenon has become an integral part of modern library science, contributing to the optimization of library resources and the identification of key trends in the scientific field.

In a library whose space was originally associated with tranquility and privacy, bibliometrics opens up new horizons. Librarians, with these tools, can manage collections more efficiently, and users can more easily find the necessary research and articles. Analysis of resource usage statistics allows you to identify areas in demand, improving the library's services and software offerings.

Thus, bibliometrics acts as a link between the past and the future, transforming the library space into a dynamically developing environment capable of adapting to the challenges of the time and meeting the needs of users. Libraries are becoming not just repositories of knowledge, but also active participants in the scientific process, forming a new culture of communication with information.

The future of bibliometrics in the world's libraries is being shaped by technology, which strives for openness and transparency in scientific research. One of the key aspects of this process is the integration of big data and analytics, which allows libraries not only to track citations and the impact of publications, but also to identify hidden links between scientific disciplines and authors.

In the future, bibliometrics will be more user-oriented, providing personalized recommendations and analyses tailored to their interests and needs. New tools such as machine learning and artificial intelligence will contribute to a deeper understanding of scientific communication patterns, enabling libraries to develop strategies for maintaining and promoting scientific literature.

In addition, libraries will become centers where data on scientific activity and educational initiatives are combined, contributing to the wider dissemination of knowledge. The interaction of global scientific communities and libraries will ensure not only access to information, but also the creation of new formats of cooperation. Thus, bibliometrics will be an integral part of the ecosystem of science, strengthening the role of libraries in the development of computer science.

Thanks

The author expresses his deep gratitude to the scientific supervisor, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor Y.S. Obidina.