Abstract:
The subject of this study is the regional treaty-based, institutional, political, and diplomatic mechanisms for conflict prevention in the field of transboundary water use in Central Asia. The object of the study is interstate relations arising from the use of shared water resources in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. The author examines in detail the political and institutional sources of conflict potential, the asymmetry of interests between upstream and downstream states, water–energy interdependence, the impact of major hydraulic infrastructure projects, and the specific features of Afghanistan’s participation in regional water cooperation. The analysis covers multilateral agreements, the activities of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, bilateral commissions, international legal norms, and contemporary project-based formats. Particular attention is paid to the capacity of existing mechanisms to coordinate seasonal water-use regimes, prevent the politicization of technical disagreements, and maintain negotiation-based interaction. The study also addresses institutional fragmentation, the dependence of implementation on national authorities, and the gap between water-management regulation and political-diplomatic coordination. The methodological framework combines systemic and institutional approaches, political and legal analysis of interstate agreements, elements of conflict analysis, and a comparative assessment of multilateral, bilateral, and project-based formats of regional cooperation. The scientific novelty of the study lies in interpreting transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia as a fragmented, multi-level architecture of conflict prevention and in identifying the institutional gap between operational water management and the political-diplomatic regulation of interstate disagreements. The study proposes criteria for assessing the preventive effectiveness of regional mechanisms, including the scope of participation, the binding nature of decisions, interagency coordination, and the capacity to adapt to new infrastructure-related risks. It concludes that the existing system is relatively effective in coordinating current and seasonal issues, but is less suited to long-term changes, major infrastructure projects, and the expansion of the circle of water users. The article substantiates the need not to establish new supranational organizations, but to integrate existing institutions procedurally. Its practical significance lies in proposals to strengthen coordination between technical and political levels, introduce a consistent procedure for prior notification, joint assessment, and intergovernmental consultations, and gradually expand basin-level dialogue with the participation of Afghanistan.
Keywords:
transboundary water use, Central Asia, conflict prevention, regional mechanisms, water diplomacy, interstate cooperation, water–energy interdependence, basin management, hydraulic infrastructure, institutional coordination