Abstract: The subject of the research is the sources of investment and the factors driving the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia amidst the structural restructuring of the economy, the reduction of external capital, and changes in investment channels. The aim of the work is to identify the limitations of FDI inflows and to determine measures for their selective attraction for technological modernization and economic security. The methodology includes systemic, comparative, and institutional analysis, as well as statistical generalization of data on investments in fixed capital and gross savings. It is shown that the reduction of foreign participation signifies not only a quantitative contraction of capital but also a qualitative restructuring of the investment model. The novelty of the research lies in justifying the controlled admission of FDI, where priority is given to projects with technology transfer, localization, workforce training, and a stable legal regime. Systemic and comparative analysis, an institutional approach, synthesis of scientific literature, and statistical analysis of Rosstat data were employed. The quantitative part relies on indicators of investments in fixed capital by ownership forms and the dynamics of gross savings. In the discussion on FDI, two positions are highlighted. The first prioritizes internal accumulations and the risks of dependence on external capital. The second emphasizes that for modernization, not only the amount of investments but also the institutional environment, which reduces transaction costs and ensures contract stability, is crucial. In this study, FDI is viewed not as a substitute for national investments but as a source of qualitative effects that domestic capital reproduces more slowly. The scientific novelty of the research conducted lies in the transition from assessing FDI as an external financial flow to evaluating FDI as a tool for technological and institutional modernization. A selective model is proposed, in which not any investments are prioritized, but projects with measurable non-financial effects: localization, technology transfer, the creation of skilled jobs, and the integration of Russian suppliers into value chains.

Keywords: investment, foreign direct investment, fixed capital investment, macroeconomic stability, state guarantees, institutional environment, technology transfer, investment policy, import substitution, economic security

Abstract: The structural transformation of the Russian economy, accompanied by external financial constraints and volatility in global markets, raised the problem of choosing the optimal monetary regulation strategy to ensure macroeconomic stability, in particular, the issue of using unconventional monetary policy measures. This study is devoted to the empirical verification of the nature of the Bank of Russia's policy in the dichotomy of discretionary decisions and formalized rules. The objective of the study is to determine the effects of implementing the Bank of Russia's policy discretionarily and in accordance with rules, in particular, the effects on demand-side and supply-side inflation, output, and the exchange rate. The methodological framework of this study is based on New Keynesianism and papers within the new classical approach in assessing economic policy based on rules and discretion. Multiple regression was used to assess the consistency of the Bank of Russia's policy with its rules-based policy. The effects of implementing discretionary and rule-based policies are assessed using SVAR. The Bank of Russia implements a policy close to classical inflation targeting, with an emphasis on deviating inflation from the target and a high degree of policy lag. The reasons for the high policy lag may be due to optimal liability policies and financial market stabilization. Under high interest rates, the Bank of Russia's policy lag increases. It is noted that, although discretionary policy can contribute to a more favorable relationship between inflation and output, it creates risks of increased uncertainty in the economy. The central bank's ultimate preference for implementing discretionary and rule-based policies depends on the degree of uncertainty risk acceptance: if the costs of uncertainty are estimated to be less than the deviation of the central bank's loss function from the optimum, the bank may implement discretionary policy.

Keywords: stabilization policy, central bank, monetary policy, discretionary policy, rules-based policy, monetary policy law, Bank of Russia, inflation targeting, demand-pull inflation, supply-pull inflation