Abstract: The objective of the study is to provide a theoretical and methodological substantiation of the concept of mutual trade facilitation and to develop adapted approaches to assessing its effectiveness in the context of Russian-Chinese economic relations. The research is based on general scientific methodology, including systemic, institutional and comparative analysis. The theoretical framework includes classical and modern theories of international trade, works of Russian and foreign scholars, documents of international organizations (WTO, World Bank, OECD, UNCTAD), as well as strategic documents of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. The economic content of the category “mutual trade facilitation” is clarified, and the author's definition is proposed in relation to Russian-Chinese cooperation. Institutional, infrastructural, financial and economic instruments of trade facilitation at the interstate, national and corporate levels are identified and systematized. A multi-level methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of trade facilitation has been developed, taking into account macroeconomic dynamics, the quality of institutions, the state of infrastructure and financial mechanisms. Using the example of Russian-Chinese trade, key infrastructure constraints (capacity of border crossings, workload of the Eastern polygon of Russian Railways) and financial challenges (transformation of settlement mechanisms) are identified. An author's definition of the category "bilateral trade facilitation" is proposed, adapted to the conditions of the strategic partnership between the Russia and China, taking into account sanctions restrictions and the asymmetry of economic potentials. Unlike existing interpretations, it includes infrastructural and financial components as equivalent to institutional ones, emphasizes the sustainability of payment mechanisms, and establishes the multi-level nature of the measures. An original two-level system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of trade facilitation has been developed and theoretically substantiated. It combines universal indicators from international organizations and specialized indicators reflecting the specifics of Russian-Chinese cooperation (including indicators of Eastern Polygon utilization, the share of settlements in national currencies, and the sanctions resilience of payment channels). A method of profile analysis is proposed for an integrated assessment of the effectiveness of trade facilitation measures under conditions of geo-economic instability. The methodology was tested using data from 2022–2025, confirming its viability. The findings form a theoretical and methodological basis for empirical analysis of the effectiveness of bilateral trade facilitation and can be used by public authorities in developing trade policy measures, as well as by companies involved in foreign economic activity. The necessity of adapting universal concepts of trade facilitation to the conditions of the bilateral strategic partnership between Russia and China is substantiated. The proposed approach makes it possible to take into account the impact of sanctions restrictions, the asymmetry of economic potentials and the specifics of state regulation.

Keywords: international trade, mutual trade facilitation, Russian-Chinese cooperation, world economy, trade and economic relations, trade efficiency, institutional mechanisms, infrastructure constraints, settlements in currencies, measures of facilitation

Abstract: The subject of the research is the Russian market for digital financial assets (DFA) during its active scaling and institutionalization period (2024–2025). The focus of the study is on the economic mechanisms for forming the market value of DFAs and the specific risk factors that determine the investment attractiveness of these instruments. The author examines in detail aspects of the topic such as the transformation of classical capital valuation models as applied to digital rights, as well as a comparative analysis of the yields of DFAs and corporate bonds from the same issuers. Special attention is given to identifying the determinants of pricing in the context of the Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy, when DFA floaters became the dominant instrument in the money market. The influence of the technological architecture of information system operators on the credit spread is investigated, and the phenomenon of liquidity fragmentation ("liquidity wells") characteristic of the modern stage of development of the financial infrastructure of the Russian Federation is analyzed. A detailed examination of the factors hindering the establishment of a unified fair value of assets on various investment platforms is conducted. The methodological framework of the work consists of financial math methods, comparative institutional analysis, and risk management. A modified discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied, and an empirical method of yield spread analysis based on statistical data from the Cbonds aggregator and the reports of the largest Russian information system operators for 2024–2025 is employed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the theoretical justification and mathematical description of a multi-component structure of the required yield of DFAs, including specific premiums for infrastructure illiquidity and platform technological risk. A unique risk matrix for investing in digital rights has been developed by the author, allowing for the classification of uncertainty factors into systematic and specific (platform) risks. The main conclusions of the research include the identification and quantitative assessment of a sustainable positive yield spread of DFAs relative to classical bonds of comparable duration (+0.8–1.5 percentage points), which is attributed to the effect of "platform closure." It has been demonstrated that the presence of an independent credit rating for the issuance in the conditions of 2026 is a key factor in reducing borrowing costs for the issuer. The author has formulated recommendations for institutional investors on implementing separate risk limits for issuers and information system operators to minimize the concentration of infrastructure risks in the digital investment portfolio.

Keywords: Digital financial assets, Pricing, Investment risks, Capital market, Yield spread, Liquidity premium, Infrastructure risk, Credit rating, Information asymmetry, Institutional investors

Abstract: The article examines the genesis and distinguishing features of the precariat culture as a stable socio-cultural phenomenon of the post-industrial era, arising in the context of contemporary changes in the labour market and structural shifts in society. Singling out the key contributing factors and main stages of its emergence, the article also focuses on how the formation of the precarious class can be seen in the context of the neoliberal economic model and platform capitalism, including its values, lifestyle and forms of cultural self-realisation. Special attention is paid to adaptation to the labour market and the rise of precariat's cultural identity under the conditions of growing uncertainty and flexibility in the work environment. The authors also focus their attention on the digital environment as the main space for constructing precarious identity and solidarity. It is online platforms, social networks, and thematic communities that become the ‘assembly points’ where atomised workers, deprived of traditional labour guarantees and ties to the office, find their voice and a sense of camaraderie. Virtual space compensates for the absence of physical trade unions, allowing for the formation of situational alliances, the exchange of survival strategies, and the sharing of emotional experiences of living with permanent instability. Through memes, blogs, and digital storytelling, vulnerability is aestheticised, transforming personal anxiety into a collective cultural code. The conclusion is that the culture of the precariat is not a marginal subcultural element, but a systemic response to the transformation of the world of labour, relevant for the analysis of contemporary social processes. The spread of the gig economy and the “uberisation” of employment mean that the principles of precarious existence are penetrating all strata of society, from couriers to highly qualified IT specialists and academic workers.

Keywords: precariat, cultural anthropology, precarious employment, gig economy, digital culture, social vulnerability, identity, precariat culture, work culture, sociology of labour

Abstract: This article examines the structural factors and mechanisms underlying the growing instability of the global economy at the present stage. The article aims to develop a theoretical concept of "civilizational turbulence" as a transitional state of the global economy, allowing for the interpretation of current global instability not as another cyclical crisis, but as a structural and value transition between different civilizational structures. This goal seeks to identify the cumulative mechanism through which the overlap of technological, geopolitical, climatic, and value shifts leads to increased instability and a change in the architecture of the world order. The subject of this study is civilizational factors (value-cultural, institutional, geopolitical, technological, and socio-ecological) that determine the generation of turbulence, the fragmentation of economic space, the crisis of global governance, and the transition to a polycentric development model, where the logic of civilizational sovereignty and security becomes dominant. The methodological basis of the study consists of a civilizational approach, historical-genetic and comparative systems analysis, and a synergetic approach to the analysis of the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems. The study applies methods of multicriteria classification, aggregation of factors by levels of influence, and the construction of a conceptual scheme of the cumulative mechanism of turbulence growth. The fundamental inadequacy of the neoclassical and institutional approaches to explaining the current global instability is revealed, caused by ignoring civilizational capital, historical memory, and the value determinants of economic behavior. The author proposes a five-criteria classification of the factors of civilizational turbulence (by nature of origin, nature of influence, level of impact, duration, and place of occurrence). A three-level mechanism of turbulence generation is substantiated, including the structural-systemic, factor-process, and reflexive-institutional levels. For the first time, it has been demonstrated that the simultaneous overlap of structural shifts at all three levels triggers a self-sustaining positive feedback loop in which governance crises, value rifts, and deglobalization mutually reinforce each other. It has been demonstrated that this mechanism makes a return to the previous architecture of the world order impossible, and the modern global economy is naturally shifting toward a polycentric development model, where the logic of civilizational sovereignty and security, rather than global efficiency, becomes dominant.

Keywords: civilizational turbulence, global economy, structural shifts, deglobalization, value schism, governance crisis, polycentricity, civilizational approach, turbulence factors, mechanism of increasing instability

Abstract: The purpose of the study: to conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of the most common business process modeling methods, including BPMN 2.0, EPC, IDEF0, Flowchart, DFD, Mind Maps, UML, and AI-agent-based tools, identify their capabilities, limits, limitations, and disadvantages, and on this basis propose a new methodological approach synthesizing advantages and disadvantages. Achieving these goals and extending their functionality through the introduction of specialized components for describing typed agents with levels of autonomy, cyber-physical flows, sensors/actuators, human-machine interfaces (HMI), security zones with automatic verification, intervention events, and cognitive control points. The object of research is a set of management decisions for the administration of activities in the manufacturing process of an industrial product. The subject of the research is new production and management relationships that arise in the process of designing, modeling, managing and operating human-machine systems. The methodology of this research is based on an interdisciplinary approach combining theoretical principles and practical tools developed within the framework of the main scientific schools of business process modeling and reengineering, systems, engineering, sociotechnical approaches, as well as the concept of total Quality Management (TQM). Five fundamental limitations of current approaches to business process modeling have been identified: the lack of a differentiated description of human-machine process agents; insufficient tools for calculating economic efficiency; inability to formalize cyber-physical interaction (forces, trajectories, collisions); ignoring the cognitive load of the operator; lack of built-in security verification at the design stage. The concept of a new method "BPMES – business process management in an ergatic system" has been developed, based on a four-level architecture that provides a full cycle of management decision support from assessing the feasibility of implementing human-machine systems to operational management of the current business process, which allows for a complete description of the business process. This allows managers and analysts to independently design, verify, optimize these systems and perform operational management of business processes without the involvement of highly specialized technical experts.The expediency of introducing new specialized components into business process modeling tools is substantiated, which make it possible to describe the main forms and methods of interaction in human-machine systems corresponding to the current stage of digital transformation due to the development of Industry 4.0 and the introduction of breakthrough technologies.

Keywords: business process modeling, ergatic systems, human-machine interaction, BPMES, BPMN, IDEF0, UML, typed agents, human-machine interface, cognitive control points

Abstract: One of the key macroeconomic indicators that determines the state of the Russian economy and ensures its growth is consumer demand. However, for the development and implementation of effective economic policies, including monetary policy, it is not enough to only monitor the dynamics of household consumption. It is important to timely identify trends and forecast consumer activity, which makes the identification of leading indicators that quickly assess consumption dynamics before the official publication of data by Rosstat especially relevant. At the same time, it should be noted that due to geographical and socio-economic peculiarities, each federal district contributes differently to overall Russian consumption. The aim of the study is to develop a system of indicators that possess leading properties and quickly evaluate the dynamics of consumer demand based on open data for subsequent use in forecasting models. The object of the study is the Central Federal District of Russia, while the subject is the indicators characterizing consumer demand in the macroregion. Traditional general scientific methods were used in the work, including deduction, systematization, and analysis, including correlation analysis. The authors examined the approaches of Russian and foreign researchers to the selection of consumer demand indicators, as well as the leading indicators used for analyzing and forecasting its dynamics. Sources of information about household consumption indicators in the Central Federal District (CFD) and in Russia as a whole, available in the public domain, were investigated and characterized considering their leading properties. As a result of the conducted study, a system of consumer demand indicators in the CFD was formed, which have a high degree of correlation with both the consumption index and with each other, and possess leading properties. The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the developed system of indicators to build forecasting models of consumer demand in macroregions, as well as in implementing monetary policy to assess the impact of the Bank of Russia's decisions on current and future trends in consumption dynamics. The results of the study contribute to economic theory by systematizing and expanding approaches to assessing consumer demand based on leading indicators.

Keywords: consumer demand, demand factors, consumption, household expenditures, consumer activity, consumer demand indicators, leading indicators, macroeconomics, macroregion, The Central Federal District

Abstract: The subject of the study is multi-horizon forecasting of the annual growth rate of the U.S. industrial production index over horizons from 1 to 12 months. This indicator is treated as a measure of current real economic activity and the phase of the business cycle. Forecasting is complicated by the limited length of monthly macroeconomic samples, strong correlation among macroeconomic and financial variables, and instability of relationships between predictors and output over time. After constructing lags, impulse variables, and rolling characteristics, the regressor space becomes high-dimensional, which requires stable estimation methods. The paper focuses on selecting a model that reduces forecast error relative to AR12 while preserving reproducibility and economic interpretability. The reproducibility of the computational procedure and results is also taken into account. The methodology is based on a direct multi-horizon scheme, a pseudo-real-time experiment with an expanding training window, time-series cross-validation, RidgeCV, LassoCV, ElasticNetCV, and a PCA-based factor model. The scientific novelty lies in testing a unified reproducible forecasting scheme in which AR12, RidgeCV, LassoCV, ElasticNetCV, and a PCA-based factor model are compared on the same sample, identical time-series folds, and a common feature panel. This design separates the effect of Ridge regularization from L1-based feature selection, mixed regularization, and factor-based dimensionality reduction. RidgeCV reduces RMSE relative to AR12 at the 1-month horizon from 1.77 to 1.28, or by about 27.7%. At the 2-month horizon, LassoCV performs best: 1.67 compared with 2.18 for AR12. At the 3-month horizon, RidgeCV and LassoCV produce the same RMSE of 2.07. At the 12-month horizon, RidgeCV underperforms AR12: 6.23 against 4.56, whereas LassoCV reaches 4.20. Thus, RidgeCV should be interpreted as an interpretable short-term specification, while LassoCV and ElasticNetCV are more robust alternatives at several medium and long horizons.

Keywords: industrial production, multi-horizon forecasting, Ridge regression, factor models, nowcasting, machine learning, LassoCV, ElasticNetCV, time-series cross-validation, pseudo-real-time experiment

Abstract: The subject of the research is the methodology of territory marketing in its historical evolution, theoretical contradictions, and contemporary development vectors. The author views territory marketing not merely as a set of promotion tools but as a complex interdisciplinary concept that includes economic-geographical, managerial, communicative, and socio-cultural aspects. The article analyzes the transformation of the understanding of territory: from the geographical background of economic activity to a specific "product" and "living space" oriented towards target groups (residents, businesses, investors, tourists). Special attention is paid to identifying methodological inconsistencies between different scientific schools, particularly between the economic-geographical approach, which emphasizes resource bases, and the communicative approach, which focuses on image. The author also investigates the problem of conflating the concepts of "place marketing" and "place branding," as well as the relationship between territory marketing and socio-economic development. A key subject becomes the necessity for a synthesis of approaches to form a comprehensive management system that accounts for the authenticity and uniqueness of each territory. The methodological basis consists of historical-retrospective analysis of the genesis of theories, comparative analysis of Western and Russian approaches, as well as the systematization of definitions and criteria. The scientific novelty of the research lies in three main results. First, the author systematically synthesized the evolution of views on territory marketing in the form of a consolidated table encompassing works from F. Kotler to domestic scholars from 2023 to 2025, which allowed for the identification of the semantic cores of each definition. Second, an original comprehensive concept of territory marketing is proposed, which shifts the focus from market competition to the sustainability of the local ecosystem and quality of life as the main intangible asset. Third, an original "3I" model (Identification – Integration – Iteration) is developed, synthesizing geographical, sociological, and digital methods. The conclusions of the article emphasize that modern territory marketing should be woven into the fabric of socio-economic development of regions rather than being reduced to image administration by officials. The practical significance is confirmed by the case of Almetyevsk (Republic of Tatarstan). The author sees the prospects for further research in developing a unified systemic methodology to eliminate disproportionate inequalities between regions based on their uniqueness and authenticity.

Keywords: territorial marketing, place branding, metodology, place identity, authenticity of the place, the uniqueness of the place, a unique territorial product, spatial development, the regional approach, place co-creation

Abstract: The research focuses on the social sphere in the Russian Federation and ongoing socioeconomic processes. The subject of the study is related to the functioning of state extra-budgetary funds in the Russian Federation as a financial instrument for addressing pressing socioeconomic issues in the context of citizens' exercise of their constitutional rights. The authors examine in detail the organizational and legal framework of state extra-budgetary funds in the Russian Federation, and substantiate specific areas for addressing the existing problems identified during the research. The authors pay particular attention to the development of governance for state extra-budgetary funds in the Russian Federation using a strategic approach that ensures effective and responsible management of public finances to address socioeconomic issues in the context of citizens' exercise of their constitutionally guaranteed rights. The study is based on methods of data analysis and synthesis, induction, deduction, generalization, systematization, and graphical presentation of the obtained results. The reliability of the obtained results is confirmed by the fact that the scientific article is based on specific numerical data characterizing the subject of the study, sourced exclusively from official information contained in official data disclosure resources. The obtained results possess scientific novelty, which is demonstrated by the authors' approach to substantiating the role of state extra-budgetary funds in the Russian Federation in the financial support of the social sphere. The authors conclude that state extra-budgetary funds play a significant role in the financial support of the social sphere in the context of citizens' exercise of their constitutional rights. They also formulate recommendations for further strengthening this role in order to improve the quality of life of Russians and ensure high-quality management of state extra-budgetary funds, taking into account current socioeconomic realities and based on a strategic approach. The results obtained during the study will be highly relevant to executive and legislative bodies in developing a set of measures to improve social governance in the Russian Federation, as well as modernize approaches to the effective and responsible management of public finances.

Keywords: budget policy, budget system, budget, Social Fund of Russia, social budget, financial policy, compulsory medical insurance, society, social security, social sphere