Kulba, V.V., Shultz, V.L., Shelkov, A.B., Chernov, I.V. Methods and mechanisms for planning and administration in emergency situations.

Abstract: The article concerns main specific features of the planning and administration processes in emergency situations (ES). The authors establish and solve the problem of optimal planning of preventive measures against emergency situations in a region, which includes choice of a complex of arrangements in order to prevent (to exclude the causes of appearance and lower the gravity of the consequences of its development) of emergency situations. The authors offer to use the following efficiency criteria: possible human losses, amount of material harm caused by ES, or amount of summary costs for the involvement of forces and means in order to implement preventive measures and to prevent an emergency situation. The problem is reduced to the integral (Boolean) programming, and it may be resolved by standard means. The authors provide formalized methods for problem-solving within operative processes planning for prevention and liquidation of consequences of emergency situations of various types. The authors evaluate a complex of issues regarding higher efficiency of use of temporal, resource-based, structural and technological, natural - climatic, environmental and physiological reserves in order to solve the problems of operative management in emergency situations. The authors solve the problem of minimizing maximal period of time for the complex of emergency rescue and other emergency works at the management objects with the limitation of the amount of final losses, harms and costs of using necessary means and forces. The results of problem solving allows the regional administrative bodies go have a basic prevention plan for the actions in case of appearance and development of an emergency situation in accordance with the formed regional scenario and the relevant graph of causes and effects in emergency situation. The problem belongs to the class of problems of integral programming. The authors provide the results of efficiency analysis for the use of scenario approach in order to solve planning and administration problems in an emergency situation. It is shown that the widely ranged application of normative basis in the process of scenario analysis guarantees the possibility for a complex approach to resolving administrative problems in order to prevent and liquidate the consequences of an emergency situation, since it allows simultaneous evaluation of interrelated and principally different events and processes. It allows providing efficient provision for factors and threats of terrorist, fire, radiation, chemical, energetic, environmental challenges to security within a single scenario model.

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