The Impact of the Normalization of Turkish-Egyptian Relations on the Political, Economic and Geopolitical Spheres

Guzaltan Onur Sinan Postgraduate student; Department of Comparative Political Science, RUDN University; Peoples' Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba 18/1 Arbat street, building 2, Moscow, 119002, Russia onurguzaltan@yahoo.com

Introduction

The political relations between the Republic of Turkey and the Arab Republic of Egypt, which were severed after the overthrow of Mohammed Morsi on July 3, 2013, entered the path of normalization after a 10-year hiatus with the mutual appointment of ambassadors on July 4, 2023. The process of fully establishing political relations continued with the visit of President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Cairo on February 14, 2024 and the return visit of his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi to Ankara on September 4, 2024. During the mutual visits of the Presidents of Turkey and Egypt, agreements were signed in various fields, primarily in the field of economic relations. The main reason for the breakdown in relations between the two countries was Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt during and after the overthrow of Mohammed Morsi. During this period, Turkey pursued an identity-oriented policy towards Egypt, which we can assess within the framework of a constructivist approach within the framework of the discipline of International Relations ^{[1, p. 68]}. This political approach, which emphasized the ideological similarities between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood^{[2, p. 200]}, emphasized the common religion and common history of Turkey and Egypt. The constructivist approach, based on the assumption that States have an identity just like individuals, defends the thesis that the identity of states is effective in their relations with other states^{[3, p.208]}. Again, in this context, the constructivist approach highlights the thesis that states with similar identities can deepen their relationships in all areas through the concept of a "common destiny"^{[4, p. 22]}. From the elections of June 16-17, 2012, when Mohammed Morsi came to power in Egypt, to On July 4, 2023, when relations were restored, Turkey followed an approach to Egypt in which special attention was paid to the policy of “common identity” through the Muslim Brotherhood^{[5, p.290]}. However, the inability to establish political relations with the new Egyptian government led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi after the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood damaged Turkey's national interests in various areas, primarily in determining maritime jurisdictions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Damage to national interests, as well as global geopolitical events (the global crisis caused by the confrontation between the West and Russia over Ukraine, Israel's expansion of its occupation of Palestine, political changes in Syria and the worsening global economic crisis) forced Turkey to turn to a realistic policy in its policy towards Egypt ^[6]. The process of normalization of Turkish-Egyptian relations began with the transition of the Turkish government from an identity-oriented policy to a realistic policy that prioritizes national interests in relations with Egypt. Turkey's change in approach was also positively received by Egypt, and bilateral relations were quickly restored. The purpose of this article is to study the impact of the steps taken by the administrations of Turkey and Egypt to normalize relations on the political, economic and geopolitical spheres between the two countries. This study will also make a political forecast regarding the future of Turkish-Egyptian relations. In the course of this study, the results of Turkey's transition from a constructivist identity policy to a realistic approach in its policy towards Egypt will be discussed from a theoretical point of view.

In this study, the policies and strategies of the Governments of Turkey and Egypt, which led to the normalization of relations between the two countries, were analyzed using an institutional method (To study the approaches of governments and public institutions). In this context, official and diplomatic documents were examined as part of a conceptual analysis, as well as a discursive analysis of the statements of the authorities during this process. In addition, a statistical analysis using official data was conducted in the section on economic relations between Turkey and Egypt. The section devoted to discussing the geopolitical implications discusses the Eastern Mediterranean strategies of Turkey and Egypt and the impact of these strategies on the relationship. As part of this analysis, numerous scientific articles in various languages on relations between Turkey and Egypt were also analyzed. In addition, scientific sources, trade statistics, news and various reports on this issue were studied.

The purpose of the article is to study the impact of the political normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt on the political, economic and geopolitical relations between the two countries.

In this context, the impact of the normalization of Turkish-Egyptian relations on bilateral relations will be considered in the political, economic and geopolitical fields, respectively.

The impact of normalization of Turkish-Egyptian relations on the political sphere

The normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt has had a positive impact on the political relations between the two countries. After Turkey stopped supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and then recognized the Egyptian government led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, diplomatic relations between the two countries, which continued at the level of charge d'affaires, were raised to a higher level after the mutual appointment of ambassadors in 2023. In parallel with this process, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made mutual visits, during which comprehensive agreements were signed. Within this framework, the two countries signed a joint declaration on cooperation in various fields, mainly during President Erdogan's visit to Cairo in February 2024. According to this declaration, it was decided to take steps for cooperation between the two countries in the fields of "politics and diplomacy, economy, trade, banking and financial services, investment, transport, aviation, maritime navigation, tourism, health and labor, security, armed forces and defense industry, combating all types of organized crime and terrorism.", culture, education, science and technology, energy, mining, agriculture, environment, forestry, housing, urban transformation and climate change, communications and information, consular affairs"^[7]. In accordance with this declaration, during the visit of Egyptian President El-Sisi to Turkey in September 2024, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the two countries to develop cooperation in 17 areas specified in the declaration ^[8]. Both countries have focused on cooperation in a wide range of areas, from infrastructure to economics, trade, healthcare, and culture. In addition, regular communication channels have been established between the two countries within this framework. On the other hand, during these visits, the leaders of the two countries expressed their common position on the Palestinian-Israeli war. In addition, the statements made confirm that the authorities of the two countries have also demonstrated their will to cooperate in crisis zones in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Libya and the Horn of Africa ^[9].

This situation shows that the normalization of relations between the two countries has positive consequences not only from the point of view of bilateral relations, but also from the point of view of developing common positions in regional crisis zones.

However, on the other hand, ideological differences between the Turkish and Egyptian administrations may make the process of normalization of relations between the two countries fragile. Caution may prevail in Turkish-Egyptian relations in the coming period, especially in light of the events in Syria. Namely, some groups in Syria, supported by Turkey, threaten Egypt's national interests in an ideological sense. If these groups take action against Egypt, it could negatively affect relations between Turkey and Egypt.

The impact of normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt on the economic sphere

Although the trade turnover between the two countries declined between 2013 and 2023, when relations were bad, it continued ^[10]. During this period, there was a decrease in investments by Turkish investors in Egypt due to uncertainty in political relations. On the other hand, strategic agreements in certain areas, especially the RORO Maritime Transportation Agreement, were not extended during this period, and this led to a decrease in trade volume between the two countries. With the restoration of relations, there has been a positive trend in mutual economic relations. According to TUIK, the increase in trade volume from $6.7 billion in 2021 to $8 billion in 2023 is concrete evidence of the positive impact of the new process on economic relations. The fact that the leaders of the two countries have set a goal to increase the volume of mutual trade by $ 15 billion indicates that the volume of trade between Turkey and Egypt will increase in the coming period ^[11].

With the improvement of relations, Turkey's exports to Egypt (textiles, machinery, chemicals) increased by 20%, while imports from Egypt (plastics, gold) increased by 15%. There is also an increase in investments by Turkish companies in Egypt ^[12]. Investments exceeding $3.5 billion are concentrated in the textile, food and logistics industries.

The two countries are also taking steps to develop joint investments in African countries. In this context, the free trade zones created in Egypt for Turkish companies are important ^[13]. In the coming period, it is possible that Turkey and Egypt will take joint steps towards Africa in addition to bilateral trade.

In this context, it is important to define the zones of maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean, where both countries are coastal, on the basis of mutual agreement. Such an agreement will bring relations between the two countries to a higher level and deepen the potential for cooperation.

The impact of normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt on the geopolitical sphere

It is also useful to assess the normalization of Turkish-Egyptian relations from a geopolitical point of view. One of the main determining factors in the relations between the two countries from a geopolitical point of view is the neighborhood of the two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, the signing by the two countries of an agreement defining the boundaries of maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean will bring relations between the two countries to a higher level and strengthen them.At a time when relations between Turkey and Egypt were bad, Egypt began to establish good relations with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration on the Eastern Mediterranean issue and participated in the EASTMED project ^[14]. The European Union is also a part of this project. The Union in question pursued a policy rejecting Turkey's claims to the Eastern Mediterranean. ^{[15, p.9]} Turkey responded to this bloc formed against it in the Eastern Mediterranean by an agreement defining the boundaries of maritime jurisdiction with the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord in Libya ^[16]. It is worth noting that, despite the fact that they are in different camps in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey and Egypt avoid concluding agreements with third countries that could damage the possibility of reaching mutual agreement ^[17].

In this context, there is no legal situation that would prevent the signing of an agreement between the two countries on the definition of zones of maritime jurisdiction. In parallel with this agreement, Turkey and Egypt can be expected to take joint steps to end instability in Libya. Given Turkey's influence on the Government of National Accord, and Egypt's influence on General Haftar's forces, we can say that both countries have the potential to unite various factions in the region and ensure stability in the country. The fact that Turkey and Egypt begin to cooperate on lifting the oil embargo in Libya immediately after the normalization of relations is a concrete evidence of the influence of these two countries on Libya ^[18]. On the other hand, if the process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt develops into a strategic partnership, a new balance of power may develop in the region ^[19]. The Turkish-Egyptian alliance could become an important milestone in uniting the countries of the region, from the Persian Gulf to Iran.

If Ankara and Cairo seek cooperation on the Palestinian and Syrian issues, other countries in the region may also develop a common position on these issues. This situation will lead to the formation of a new regional unity with the unification of the countries of the region ^[20]. The normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt is the result of the two countries' transition to a realistic and pragmatic policy in their relations. However, it remains debatable whether this process will be permanent. The political balance in the region is changing rapidly. There is a possibility that the security vacuum created by the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria and the expansion of the Israeli occupation of Palestine, on the other hand, will spread to other countries in the region. Normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt can become constructive if the two countries take joint steps to determine their maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean. Otherwise, careful approaches in the relationship will remain. If we approach this from a realistic point of view, then the growing instability in the region and, so to speak, on a global scale forces the Turkish and Egyptian administrations to join forces. Especially the Israeli factor and the possibility of a US attack on Iran are pushing the Turkish and Egyptian administrations to expand cooperation. At this stage, it is very important for Turkey to abandon the policy it pursued towards Egypt through the Muslim Brotherhood. A new era has begun in which national interests come to the fore, rather than an emphasis on identity.

Conclusion

The normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt has had a positive impact on the political, economic and geopolitical spheres between the two countries. The policies of the two Governments, which prioritize national interests rather than an identity-based approach, accelerated the normalization process. At the moment, when we evaluate this from a theoretical point of view, we see that the Turkish government's approach to Egypt is to stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and move from a policy of "common identity", which we can assess within the framework of a constructivist approach, to a realistic approach that puts national interests at the forefront. and it pushes ideological differences into the background, which is the main factor in normalizing relations between Turkey and Egypt. On the other hand, it would not be a mistake to say that if Turkey pursues a realistic policy, rather than an identity-based policy, in its relations with the states of the Middle East, its sphere of influence will expand.

However, in the process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt, caution remains due to regional and global instability. In particular, the security vacuum created in Syria as a result of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime threatens the stability of both countries. On the other hand, the aggressive policy of the United States and Israel in the region is another factor provoking regional instability. The new process that has begun between Turkey and Egypt can acquire a structural character only when the two countries take joint steps to define the boundaries of maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean.

A possible agreement between the two countries on mutual maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean would also mean that the two countries would cooperate in the extraction and subsequent transfer of gas resources in the region. On the other hand, such an agreement would combine the geopolitical or, in other words, the vital interests of the two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, a possible agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean would bring Turkey and Egypt closer together in the field of energy and geopolitics, and it would be inevitable for relations to reach a strategic and structural level.

Such an agreement would also pave the way for cooperation between the two countries in resolving the crisis in Libya. A trilateral agreement between Turkey, Egypt and Libya on defining maritime borders in the Eastern Mediterranean may even be on the agenda. On the other hand, if Turkey and Egypt reach an agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean, there will be no legal obstacles to the inclusion of Syria, Lebanon and, through Gaza, the Palestinian governments in this agreement. These countries can jointly define the boundaries of their maritime jurisdiction. Such an opportunity would also negatively affect Israel's claims in the region and lead to a change in the regional balance. If these steps are taken, Turkish-Egyptian relations will transform from limited cooperation into a structural strategic alliance. Otherwise, possible changes of power, economic crises and a paradigm shift in the two countries may negatively affect relations. However, once the relationship becomes structural, the likelihood of a decline in the pace of cooperation will also decrease.

To sum up, we can say that two fundamental and scientifically new results were obtained from this article; the first is the conclusion that the basis for the normalization of Turkish—Egyptian relations is the transformation of the Turkish government's policy towards Egypt from constructivist approaches based on identity to realistic approaches that focus on our national interests. The second is the confidence that Turkish—Egyptian relations will acquire a strategic dimension only if a mutual agreement is reached on the boundaries of maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean.