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Beliaev A.V.
The dynamics of academic interest in the Great Game in foreign historical science in the second half of the XX — early XXI centuries.
// History magazine - researches.
2024. № 4.
P. 81-101.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2024.4.71087 EDN: OYUDIE URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=71087
The dynamics of academic interest in the Great Game in foreign historical science in the second half of the XX — early XXI centuries.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2024.4.71087EDN: OYUDIEReceived: 20-06-2024Published: 02-08-2024Abstract: The subject of the study is the dynamics of academic interest in the problem of the Great Game in foreign historiography of the second half of the XX – early XX centuries and the factors that influenced this process. The traditional study of historical thought practically does not take into account quantitative indicators of the prevalence of certain concepts in historiography. At the same time, there is a genuine revival of interest in Anglo-Russian rivalry in Central Asia. The article analyzes the content of foreign historiography after the Second World War and the prerequisites for the growth and decline of research interest in certain periods of time. The aim of the work is to trace the correlation between foreign policy events and trends in the study of the Great Game. To do this, an array of more than 300 papers was formed in order to graphically display bursts of scientific interest in the problem by plotting a time series. The work uses quantitative methods that allow you to build an initial graph and perform its mechanical alignment for greater reliability of the results. Also, the main technique for interpreting the data obtained was the analysis of bursts of research interest in the problem of the Great Game, for which historical-systemic and historical-comparative methods were used. The use of quantitative methods and the display of results in graphical form determines the novelty of the work. The catalyst for the intensification of research on this issue has almost always been an aggravation in the confrontation between superpowers or a significant change in the international situation. It is also worth noting the emergence of the term The New Great Game in the mid-1990s and its subsequent expansion beyond the Central Asian region and historical science in general. In British historiography, the growth in the number of publications on the Great Game is due to the development of postcolonial studies. In the USA, there is a significant difference between the pre-war and post-war volumes of research on this topic, the penetration of the concept of the Great Game into American science and gaining popularity among researchers. Further study of the patterns of development of the foreign historiography of the Anglo-Russian rivalry, including using statistical methods, will allow us to more accurately characterize the relationship between political conjuncture and academic discourse in the bipolar and post-bipolar world, as well as the place of the image of the Great Game in modern public consciousness. Keywords: The Great Game, historiography, quantitative methods, Central Asia, Great Britain, USA, USSR, Russia, The New Great Game, dynamics of academic interestThis article is automatically translated. You can find original text of the article here. The theme of the Big Game has been attracting more and more attention in recent decades. In addition to the scientific environment, this image penetrates into journalism and the media, becoming a universal explanatory metaphor. The geography of the concept is rapidly expanding, striving to cover the whole world. In this regard, the reasons and prerequisites for such attention to a topic that has a rich and extensive historiography are important. The return of interest in the Anglo-Russian confrontation and the transfer of certain components of the concept of the Big Game to modern realities could not be realized without serious impulses from society. In this regard, the study of publication and research activity allows us to formulate an assumption about the nature of the reactualization of the theme of the Big Game. Foreign historiography from the end of the Second World War to the end of the second decade of the XXI century was chosen as the object. It includes, first of all, Anglo-American works of this period, because more attention was paid to the development of the problems of the Big Game in these countries. Additionally, selected Indian and Chinese works published in English-language publications are also involved. For a full-fledged analysis of the dynamics of academic interest in the problem of the Big Game, an array of English-language literature was formed, published from 1945 to 2022. (more than 300 works). Various historiographical reviews were used as a guide for compiling this array, with the help of which the key and most significant studies were identified. In addition to this group, to create a more complete picture, the information was in the journals American Historical Review and English Historical Review. These publications specialize in reviewing recent publications. Due to their general nature, their issues clearly demonstrate an informative cross-section of the most popular research topics among English and American historians, from which works on the Big Game were consistently selected. Central Asian Survey, in turn, is a highly specialized journal, the involvement of which in order to select publications for research was carried out with the expectation that profile collections for the region of interest would most likely contain fresh and relevant views on the problem. The main method of their analysis is the construction of a time series and the interpretation of the resulting graph. Mechanical smoothing and the use of a moving average were used to check and correct the resulting trend lines. This eliminates potential distortions caused by possible incompleteness of the available data.
The resulting time series shows a very interesting picture of the trends that clearly manifest themselves in foreign historical science in the study of the Big Game (see the Graph of the dynamics of academic interest). The key to interpretation is the growth trends or, conversely, the stagnation of interest in the Big Game. The graph of the dynamics of academic interest clearly demonstrates the changing nature of the attention of the foreign scientific community to the topic of the Big Game. The spikes in the mid-1960s, the first half of the 1980s, the first half of the 1990s and the first half of the 2010s are clearly visible. At the same time, there are periods of stable relevance of the problem of the Anglo-Russian confrontation in historiography. To reveal the factors that influenced this dynamics and the convenience of analysis, the entire period of the historiography under consideration is divided into separate stages. The first stage of foreign English-language historiography (1945-1964) After the end of World War II, a significant part of the research was devoted either directly to the events that had just ended, or to various kinds of retrospective reviews of German society [1-3]. The second factor in the post-war foreign historiography was a certain fading of scientific life. An indirect sign of this may be the results of a cursory analysis of the first post-war issuesAmerican Historical Review. They were much less voluminous (~ 200 pages), while over time their sizes began to increase (issue 22, issue 1, February 2017 is 317, and in certain periods the volume reached 400 pages). An important milestone on this path was 1967, when the number of issues per year was increased from 4 to 5 (which lasted until 2022). Both of these factors significantly influenced the first stage of the historiography of the Anglo-Russian confrontation in Central Asia. Up to and including 1964, the time series shows consistently low interest in this issue. The works were distributed on several main topics: English policy in the region [4-18], Russian promotion and policy in Central Asia [19-24], Anglo-Russian relations [25-33]. In general, from the presented studies, it is worth highlighting V.K. Fraser-Tytler [26] and J. Gleason [25], who expressed their views on the great influence of Russophobia in British society on the situation in Central Asia. It is also worth noting the work of M. Yapp and his assessment of the impact of the First Anglo-Afghan War on the development of the country. He concludes that as a result of this conflict, "the last blow was dealt to the power of the leaders, whom Dost Muhammad was able to quickly bring under control after that" [18, p. 381]. The last thing worth mentioning is a certain number of reviews of translated Soviet works, which fit into another trend of post—war science — an increase in interest in Russian and Soviet history. Well-deserved attention in the USA was paid to the works of the prominent Soviet researcher N.A. Khalfin. He was a leading specialist in the study of the history of Central Asia in the USSR in those years. To pay tribute to him, translations of some of his works were published in the USA with a slight lag from their publication in the USSR [for example, 33]. Within the framework of the proposed return of the problem of Anglo-Russian rivalry to academic discourse, works devoted to the study of the Central Asian region as a whole are separately highlighted, which are evaluated as part of the general course of development of the historiography of the issue. In addition to the bare academic interest, regional historical studies prepare the ground for problematic study and mark public attention to the region [34-38]. The surge of academic interest in the problems of the Anglo-Russian confrontation in the mid—late 1960s. In 1965, the number of studies on Anglo-Russian rivalry in Central Asia increased dramatically, reaching a peak in 1969. A comparison with the previous stage also serves to confirm the phenomenal explosion of research interest. There, in the existing array, 32 works are found over 19 years (stage 1945-1964). In the period from 1965 to 1969, there were already 40 such studies. The content of this stage is also much richer. In addition to the traditional political analysis of the situation in Central Asia, close attention was paid to the individual contribution to the confrontation and the personal qualities of its participants. This was reflected in the writing of political and problematic biographies of both British [39-47] and Russian players [48]. The focus is also on the problems of colonial administration, the specifics and consequences of Britain's active policy in the region within the framework of the First Anglo-Afghan War. Moreover, in line with the postcolonial tradition, cultural aspects come to the fore [49-50]. Many researchers are keen to find the positive consequences of the intervention of the great powers in the history of the region. The development of education, military affairs and road construction were among the obvious achievements in improving the lives of the peoples of Central Asia [51]. The pre-war points of view on the Anglo-Russian confrontation in the spirit of geopolitics also remained. The representative of the "defensive" concept in British historiography, J. Norris, insisted that the growing tensions in Central Asia (and the First Anglo-Afghan War) were caused primarily by the intrigues and adventures of the Russian Empire [52]. During the same period, there was a manifestation of the concept of an Ongoing Big Game. Its main idea was that the confrontation of the powers captures the XX century with new participants [53-54]. Separately, it is worth noting the emergence of an approach that expands the circle of competing powers in the region at the expense of China [55]. This concept will continue to develop as China's political and economic power grows, until at the present stage of international relations, Beijing's role as a full participant in the rivalry in Central Asia is recognized by everyone. This short but eventful period in foreign historiography allows us to speak legitimately about the revival of research interest in the Big Game. Less obvious is the complex of reasons that served as a starting point. The surge in academic attention to this problem could only be a consequence of the general growth of foreign historical science. One of the indirect evidence of this is that the largest historical journal in the United States, American Historical Review, demonstrates an increase in its volume, and since 1967, the transition to publishing five issues per year instead of four. However, while maintaining high rates of historical research, the number of works on the Big Game at the turn of the 1960s and 1970s is decreasing. Accordingly, if the total number of works remained the same in the period 1965-1969 and since 1970, then the rapid growth of interest in this problem in the second half of the 1960s was due not only to the general rise of foreign historiography. It can be assumed that the increase in the number of works on the Big Game is due to the international situation. The interest in Russian history and relations with Russia is due to the formation of a bipolar world, the confrontation between two superpowers and the need for a comprehensive study of the rival. The significant international aggravation associated with the Caribbean crisis, despite the subsequent policy of "detente", clearly demonstrated that the conflict of interests of the USSR and the United States will continue and will affect different regions of the world. With an obvious pause for conducting a full-fledged study, the study of the Big Game has been showing a reaction to a socio-political request since 1965. The significant development of American Russian studies, Slavic studies and Asian studies is caused by these political motives. Foreign historiography of the 70s — 80s of the XX century. about the rivalry between Great Britain and Russia in Central Asia. The beginning of the 1970s was characterized by a significant drop in the number of works on the problems of Anglo-Russian rivalry in Central Asia, as can be seen in the time series graph. However, this indicator still exceeds, especially on the moving average, the results before 1965. The continued attention to the problem of the Big Game in 1970-1992 was confirmed by the nature, level and significance of the presented works. Many trends, trends and concepts of the previous period continued and expanded. Attention to the personalities that determine the face of the confrontation of the great powers forms a special attitude to the role of personality in the success or failure of individual episodes of fierce struggle in Central Asia [56-62]. Much attention was paid to the study of the processes of the conquest of Central Asia by the Russian Empire and its subsequent management [63-72]. The thesis formulated in Russian historiography about the progressive significance of Russia's conquest of these territories in foreign, primarily British, historiography was not recognized by all researchers. For example, D. Gillard directly accuses the Russian Empire of aggressive expansion and the desire to "expand its borders to establish control over neighboring nomadic tribes and weak states whenever the opportunity was given" [73, p. 64]. Another plot of foreign English-language historiography in the 1970s and 1980s was closer attention to such regions of the Big Game as Tibet [74-77] and Kashgaria [78-80]. In these works, the authors' desire was traced not only to expand the area of study of the problem, but also to highlight various aspects of the impact of the global confrontation of the great powers on these communities. The activities of the famous British researcher and journalist P. Hopkirk deserve special attention. Although his works are mostly journalistic, they still deserve to be included in the time series under consideration. Hopkirk possessed outstanding scientific scrupulousness and relied on a detailed study of sources in his popular science books. In addition, he had a significant impact on the development and growth of interest in the Big Game not only in the academic environment, but also in Anglo-American society as a whole [81-82]. At this stage, the concept of the Ongoing Big Game was being developed no less successfully. The turbulent events of the second half of the 20th century, especially those related to the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan, were analyzed from the perspective of the geopolitical confrontation of superpowers [83-85]. But special attention should be paid to a group of works that put the concept under study in the title. From the entire spectrum of such researchers, it is worth highlighting J. Morgan, M. Edwards and I. Ingram, who sought to comprehensively study both the Anglo-Russian confrontation itself and the specifics of its unusual name [86-89]. The main reason for the continued relevance of the problem of the Big Game is still seen as the enduring antagonism of the superpowers. The USSR and the USA, as the legal successors and heirs of the Russian and British Empires, metaphorically "try on" the established roles of rivals in the world and in Central Asia. The reaction of historiography to the outbreak of the Afghan War was indicative in the context of this interpretation. The peak value in this period was in 1980. Provided that 8 out of 9 papers are articles in scientific journals, this is seen as an academic response to the transition of events in Central Asia to the "hot" stage [88, 90-96] By the end of the decade, analytical works on the global American-Soviet confrontation appeared [97]. However, as Soviet military and geopolitical power declined, interest in the Big Game waned, only to be revived at the next stage. The image of the Big Game and the new geopolitical situation in the region (1992-2011). A major geopolitical event related to the collapse of the USSR significantly changed not only the entire world politics, but also the balance of power in Central Asia. The independence of the five Central Asian republics required the leading players to build a radically new paradigm in relation to the region. This resulted in the emergence and widespread dissemination of the concept of a New Big Game. Leaving aside the genesis of the new terminology in the study of Central Asia, it is worth noting that in scientific discourse, attention to the Anglo-Russian confrontation was obviously preserved. From a substantive point of view, this period largely repeats the trends of the previous one. Attention was paid to the personalities of the participants in the Big Game [98-103], the colonial policy of Great Britain [104-108] and Russia [109-119]. It is noteworthy that there were fewer works devoted directly to the interaction of the two empires [120-123]. This can be explained by the new political reality in the world. At that moment, the Russian Federation did not possess the power that allowed the Russian Empire to resist Britain (and the USSR to resist the United States). The desire of the Russian leadership to reconsider the role of its country in the modern world order has also influenced the study of the Big Game. A recent topic that has gained some popularity in historiography has been the study of intelligence and secret missions in the region [124-127]. The image of the "Shadow Game" is extremely attractive as a starting point in the history of intelligence. Not the least influence was exerted by the general "espionage" in popular culture in the late XX — early XXI centuries. This period is also notable for the deepening of the problems of myth-making around the Big Game. A complex and complex phenomenon was undergoing a transformation in the public consciousness, both in the XIX century and up to the present day. Due to the popularity of this image in modern science, the study of its evolution is extremely important. The correlation of reality and fiction, as well as the role of linguistic and metaphorical constructions in this, have been highlighted in few but significant studies [128-130]. It is worth noting the unprecedented growth in popularity of this topic of the Big Game not only in scientific circles, but also in the public space. This was largely facilitated by popular science works performed with sufficient respect for sources [131-134]. An analytical study on the fate of superpowers in regional conflicts of the second half of the 20th century serves as a definite result [135]. And although the Soviet-Afghan war was not directly articulated in terms of a Big Game, like the Vietnam War, the general conclusion appeals to the specifics of the struggle for security through proxy wars. Another important trend in the historiography of the 1990s-2000s was the continuation of consideration of aspects of the Anglo-Russian advance into Central Asia in the context of socio-cultural impact on its inhabitants [136-139]. Various aspects of spiritual life were studied through the prism of the confrontation of the great powers. Attention to these areas was cultivated in historical science throughout the second half of the 20th century. Returning to the factors that contributed to the high proportion of studies of the Big Game in English-language historiography, it is worth noting the lack of correlation between the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and any significant increase in the number of works on the topic. Instead, there was a slight shift in research topics in favor of the Afghan issue [140-143]. In fairness, it is worth noting that there have also been studies directly related to the events of September 11 and the subsequent actions of the United States and allies [144]. In general, interest in the Anglo-Russian confrontation was gaining momentum, gradually moving beyond academic discourse. There were more and more political science and journalistic works appealing to this concept. If we carefully consider the time series, then in the period from 1992 to 2011, all the peaks in the volume of work turned out to be due, among other things, to a New Big Game. However, it cannot yet be said that it completely displaces the previous terminology and historical focus of research from the scientific field. Approaches to the problem of confrontation in the Central Asian region in the 2010s-2020s. The first thing worth noting when characterizing this stage is the highest peak in the entire time series since the end of World War II. Almost half of the papers on the issue highlighted in 2014 are articles from the Central Asian Survey magazine, which devoted the entire second issue to the topic of the Russian conquest of Central Asia. The presented research includes both a classical analysis of certain aspects of the colonization of the region [145-146], as well as attempts to rethink previously reached conclusions [147-148] or work within the framework of new areas of historical science [149-151]. The very fact of such a thematic issue perfectly characterizes the place of the Big Game in modern historiography. 2014 is becoming the peak of this whole stage, not so much in terms of the volume of published works, as in assessing the importance of this topic, embodied in a special issue of a major magazine on Central Asia. In the 1970s-1980s and 1990s-2000s, the abrupt behavior of the graph, nevertheless, was characterized by an increase in the average level, which allowed us to conclude that the image of the Big Game in science is continuing to grow in popularity. The current stage (since 2012) is still developing according to a slightly different scenario. After an extremely eventful 2014, a steady downward trend begins. This is complemented by an increased proportion of works devoted not to the confrontation of powers in Central Asia, but to the region itself and its peculiarities. From a substantive point of view, several ongoing trends can be identified at this stage. There is still interest in the Russian colonization of Central Asia [152-154], personalities [155-155] and espionage [157]. The works devoted to the perception of the Big Game in the public consciousness and the myths associated with it are considered significant [158-159]. They raise an important idea about the complex and not always straightforward relationship between political action and its response in society. Every year, the problem of the correlation of reality and illusions in the modern digital world is becoming more and more urgent. The ongoing Allied operation in Afghanistan maintains interest in its history [160-162], although a significant decline is noticeable compared to the previous stage. This is also due to the shift in the focus of American foreign policy on the global confrontation with China. The study of the cultural history of the region is becoming increasingly developed. And if the issues of interethnic interaction and the role of colonizers in the fate of Central Asian communities are not something new [163-165], then research on the problems of the ecology of the region, including in the historical and colonial perspective [166-168], turn out to be a characteristic feature of this stage in historiography. The results of foreign English—language historiography of the second half of the XX - early XXI centuries. Immediately after the Second World War, the total volume of historical literature was not the most significant, and the main topics were the recent conflict and the history of Germany. The outbreak of the Cold War increased interest in the history of the USSR, the Russian Empire and the problems of communist ideology. During this period (1945-1964), the Big Game remains largely on the periphery of scientific research. The next stage formally began in 1965 and was characterized by a full-scale surge of interest in the Anglo-Russian confrontation in Central Asia. The prerequisites for this were laid back in the early 1960s. The topic became relevant again and more and more scientists paid attention to its development. The revival of attention to the Anglo-Russian rivalry, as it seems, is due to a combination of at least two factors. The first is the rapid growth of all foreign historical science in the late 1960s. The second factor is the deepening of contradictions between superpowers, the development of the Cold War and the awareness of the need to study one's own opponent. It is possible to choose the Caribbean crisis of 1962 as a formal starting point, after which the more subtle methods of the global struggle of the two systems turned out to be a priority. In this regard, any examples of geopolitical confrontation with the USSR or Russia became relevant, and the Big Game was better suited for this than ever. Attention to the theme of the Big Game continued in the next time period (1970-1992). The global rivalry between the USSR and the USA continued to be a catalyst for scientific interest. A vivid confirmation was the violent academic reaction to the outbreak of the Afghan War, expressed in a stream of articles on the Big Game during 1980. At the end of this period, works directly interpreting this conflict as a continuation of the Big Game, as well as an analysis of the global rivalry of modern superpowers through the prism of local wars, managed to appear. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geopolitical situation in Central Asia has changed significantly. The independence of the five former Soviet republics opened the way for major world players to enter these countries and fight for their resources. In addition, the need to build a long-term strategy in relation to the region has become urgent. These factors turned out to be key in order for the Anglo-Russian rivalry in the region to remain in the focus of attention of the scientific community. Last but not least, the volume of research literature is due to the emergence of the concept of a New Big Game, which is rapidly gaining popularity both in the academic environment and beyond. Much attention was paid to cultural interaction at the point of contact of empires and other topics previously ignored in historiography. It is surprising that the beginning of the operation of the United States and its allies in Afghanistan, after the September 11 attacks, did not have a significant impact on the volume of research. The latest period at the moment represents an anomalous picture of an unprecedented surge in interest in the Big Game in 2014. This was largely facilitated by the special issue of the Central Asian Survey magazine, which is entirely devoted to the Russian colonization of the region. Interdisciplinary approaches and research into the New Big Game continued to grow among the works.
Can the post-war historiography of the topic be characterized as a form of reactualization of the Anglo-Russian confrontation under the influence of the bipolar system of international relations and the postcolonial social conjuncture? In the second half of the 20th century, British historiography closely merged with American science due to the academic ties between these two countries. The growth of publications since the mid-1960s was largely due to an external factor, which was most often associated with the aggravation of the international situation in Central Asia or relations between the great powers. Efforts to develop postcolonial trends in the humanities in the UK also made a significant contribution. Soon this trend gained popularity in the United States, but it was not a key message for intellectual search. The United States turned out to be a country where the difference between pre-war and post-war attention to the problem of the Big Game is enormous. It was the US foreign policy interests that stimulated the significant development of full-scale studies of Anglo-Russian rivalry in Central Asia. The share of American works in the study of this problem grew throughout the second half of the XX — early XXI centuries, exerting an increasing influence on foreign historiography as a whole. Under the influence of the conjuncture, the theme of the Big Game is once again becoming popular in the academic community, and its image is widely used in political discourse and popular culture.
The theme of the Big Game has been attracting more and more attention in recent decades. In addition to the scientific environment, this image penetrates into journalism and the media, becoming a universal explanatory metaphor. The geography of the concept is rapidly expanding, striving to cover the whole world. In this regard, the reasons and prerequisites for such attention to a topic that has a rich and extensive historiography are important. The return of interest in the Anglo-Russian confrontation and the transfer of certain components of the concept of the Big Game to modern realities could not be realized without serious impulses from society. In this regard, the study of publication and research activity allows us to formulate an assumption about the nature of the reactualization of the theme of the Big Game. Foreign historiography from the end of the Second World War to the end of the second decade of the XXI century was chosen as the object. It includes, first of all, Anglo-American works of this period, because more attention was paid to the development of the problems of the Big Game in these countries. Additionally, selected Indian and Chinese works published in English-language publications are also involved. For a full-fledged analysis of the dynamics of academic interest in the problem of the Big Game, an array of English-language literature was formed, published between 1945 and 2022. (more than 300 works). Various historiographical reviews were used as a guide for compiling this array, with the help of which the key and most significant studies were identified. In addition to this group, to create a more complete picture, the information was in the journals American Historical Review and English Historical Review. These publications specialize in reviewing recent publications. Due to their general nature, their issues clearly demonstrate an informative cross-section of the most popular research topics among English and American historians, from which works on the Big Game were consistently selected. Central Asian Survey, in turn, is a highly specialized journal, the involvement of which in order to select publications for research was carried out with the expectation that profile collections for the region of interest would most likely contain fresh and relevant views on the problem. The main method of their analysis is the construction of a time series and the interpretation of the resulting graph. Mechanical smoothing and the use of a moving average were used to check and correct the resulting trend lines. This eliminates potential distortions caused by possible incompleteness of the available data. References
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