Organizational Forms of "Containment of China" in US Foreign Policy at the Present Stage.

On September 15, 2021, the creation of a new military-technical triple bloc was announced, which included the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia, the statement was made jointly by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, US President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. The alliance was named AUKUS (an acronym formed by the participating countries A ustralia, U nited K ingdom, U nited S tates). The official purpose of the creation of this block is to establish cooperation in the field of security, facilitate the exchange of information and know-how in the field of technology, it is also claimed that it is not directed against any country. However, the actual goal of the alliance is to contain China, which is not even denied by the officials of the AUKUS member countries (Zabolotsky, 2021). At the opening ceremony, J. Biden made it clear that in the new conditions, the emphasis is on the military component: "We are talking about investing in our greatest source of strength, our alliances and renewing them in order to better counter the threats of today and tomorrow." Thus, China is clearly under strong military pressure, the United States is forming a coalition in the region. Under these conditions, there is a direct intersection with the national interests in the field of security of the Russian Federation, since we are one of the closest partners of the PRC, and relations between the countries are characterized by high dynamics, officially defined as "comprehensive equal trust partnership and strategic interaction". The West's strategy to weaken China may become an impetus for even closer cooperation between China and the Russian Federation. The foreign policy concept of the Russian Federation stipulates that "Russia will build up the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership in all areas based on the coincidence of principled approaches to key issues of world politics as one of the basic components of regional and global stability." This cooperation is especially relevant in the context of increased EU and US sanctions pressure on Russia in recent months.

The organizational agenda of the US-China contradictions. Over the past decade, China has been developing at a faster pace in the economic sphere. If earlier it was only a production base in the system of Western production chains, at the moment China has made great progress in this hierarchy and is already becoming the center of technology development and the development of new products. For example, back in 2020, Chinese scientists announced the development of the most powerful quantum computer in the world, Jiuzhang. Additionally, since 2014, China has overtaken the United States in terms of GDP by PPP, and after the coronacrisis, the American economic lag has only intensified. 

Taking advantage of its economic potential, China is implementing its strategy in the region, which relies on interaction and cooperation with those countries in which it has the opportunity to gain a foothold as a global scientific and technological center. On November 20, 2012, at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia, the idea of creating a Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (CEP) was laid. The signing of the agreement on the creation of this partnership agreement took place only after 8 years of negotiations in November 2020 in Hanoi. Thanks to this, China was able to solve two problems at once, being in one bundle with developed countries and ensuring cooperation with developing countries, avoiding the development of competition with them. 

Further, the PRC continued its attempts to develop organizational means of power in the economic sphere with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. On September 16, 2021, immediately after the announcement of the creation of AUKUS, the Chinese application for entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (SRTRP) was submitted. This association includes the closest American allies – Japan, Australia and Canada, it is noteworthy that the United States left the SRTRR in 2017. Joining this organization can help China neutralize the anti-Chinese military bloc AUKUS by bringing the PRC closer to developed and developing countries in the economic sphere; such cooperation can deter a number of countries from unfriendly policies towards China.

China's economic strategy for establishing ties is being opposed by Western countries. First, it is worth mentioning that shortly before China joined the VREP, India decided to withdraw from its membership, and after that there was an escalation of relations between the countries on the border. Secondly, Australia is blocking China's entry into the SRTRR. Thirdly, in May 2021, the European Parliament froze a Comprehensive investment Agreement with China under the pretext of a problem with the "rights of Uighurs."  And finally, in parallel with AUKUS, we have activated another organizational form of power in the military sphere – QUAD, which unites Japan, India, Australia and the USA (Shoebridge, 2021). It is obvious that all the steps taken by the United States and Western countries to form military ties with key players in the region are aimed at ensuring a large-scale military and economic deterrence of China's foreign activity.

National interests of Western countries. The US policy of deterring the PRC began to develop actively even under Barack Obama, it was he who made the statement about the "pivot towards Asia" (Grafov, 2022). Washington's strategy is to support China's neighbors who have contradictions with it, which refers us to the "island chain strategy" that Secretary of State J. F. Dulles proposed back in 1951 (Umetsu, 1996). Who came to power in 2021, J. Biden continues to pursue a policy in this direction; this is evidenced at least by the fact that Australia, which is part of AUKUS, according to the strategy of the island chain, is a link between the second and third lines of basing of the US military forces. Previously, the United States has already built favorable relations with Vietnam, India, the Philippines and Japan, which are also part of the "chain".

If we talk about the UK, then we can say that its goals coincide with the goals of the United States, since the countries conduct a common policy in the field of international relations. This is confirmed by the Atlantic Charter, updated in 2021, which emphasizes the common British-American ideological attitudes and a common vision of the modern system of international relations. The basis of these relations was the idea of uniting liberal democracies to confront authoritarian states, among which Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are attributed (Godovanyuk, 2021). In this case, we can say that the UK blindly took a course to contain China after the United States, because the benefits for the country from joining AUKUS today remain not completely clear, but the costs can be attributed at least the most obvious – the deterioration of relations with France. Of course, in the last few years, relations between China and the UK have worsened due to the Hong Kong issue; the peninsula is an important market for goods and services for Britain and there has always been a "special" connection between them, and China has been trying for several years to return Hong Kong to its full control. However, direct confrontation with China is not in the interests of Great Britain, London has always been cautious in its actions, despite pressure from Washington, because economic ties with China are important for the well-being of Britain, its trade and investment. The cancellation of the "golden era" of relations between these two countries is a very risky step.

The goals of Australia and the benefits for it from the formation of AUKUS are more understandable; due to the limited defense power of the country, cooperation with the United States and Great Britain definitely corresponds to the national interests of the country (Alyoshin, 2020). The appearance of nuclear-powered submarines as part of the Australian navy will undoubtedly help not only to balance China's power in the region, but also strengthen the country's leadership position in IT. Of course, submarines will be able to enter service only in 2036, but Washington already calls this alliance a fundamental decision that "resolutely binds Australia to the United States and Great Britain for generations." Despite all the benefits, the costs that Australia faces and will face in the future "thanks" to AUKUS are also obvious. China is Australia's largest export partner, its volume exceeds exports to North America and Europe combined; even after the trade war in 2019, Sino-Australian trade declined by about 40%, which hit Australia hard, which, instead of developing its trade, throws all its strength at its recovery. There is simply nothing for the country to replace the Chinese market with, and in a situation of increasing tension, economic relations will undoubtedly only worsen.

Prospects for the Russian Federation. In the economic sphere, Russia has the opportunity to attract Chinese investments for the development of projects similar to those that are currently taking place in Australia. With the tightening of sanctions against Australia and during bilateral negotiations between the Russian Federation and China, cooperation can begin on the following commodity items: iron ores and concentrates, coal, oil, gas, aluminum, pearls, gold, wool, etc. At the same time, negotiations should be based on the assessment of reserves in the regions most in need of industrial development, for example, the Far East. For some commodity items, trends have already been outlined in 2020-21, after the escalation of the trade war between China and Australia. For example, in 2020 there was an increase in exports of copper and ore, and in 2021 – oil, ore and aluminum. Another direction in the future may be the development of bauxite, since its supply is declining due to the military coup in Guinea (a key exporter of bauxite).

In the field of military cooperation, China can also count on Russia.  According to the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, the missile attack warning system created with the help of Russia will dramatically increase the defense capability of the People's Republic of China. Also, not so long ago, a new term "deferred military alliance" (PRC with the Russian Federation) appeared (Klimenko, 2021). Another potential ally of China is Pakistan, which has condemned the creation of AUKUS, calling it a manifestation of Cold War thinking. Despite the fact that Pakistan is not a strong ally, it can be useful because it has leverage over India. It is also important that the European Union does not see an immediate military threat from the PRC for itself (Trush, 2020).

To sum up, on a global scale, AUKUS is nothing more than another cog in the machine of restraining China's development and spreading its influence in the economy and world politics. Having already become somewhat dependent on the Chinese economy, the West, led by the United States, has connected a military apparatus in the form of AUKUS (and previously QUAD) in order to set up economic giants against China, which, because of this connection, will be forced to gradually abandon cooperation with China. Such drastic steps are risky for the AUKUS member countries due to the dependence mentioned earlier; the UK and Australian economies may be greatly shaken because at the moment it is unclear in which direction the confrontation will turn. Along with the formation of AUKUS, China also faced a real military threat in the face of Australia, which will be provided with nuclear submarines, this creates the need for a reliable ally, which in the current situation can become Russia. If earlier the Russian Federation needed a military alliance more, now both sides need it. While the United States is creating new alternatives to NATO, Russia and China can create their own bloc that can strengthen the defense capabilities of both countries. Another step towards rapprochement will be the development of economic ties in conditions when China needs to replace its main exporter (Australia), and Russia needs to replace with something goods from the West, which it lost due to sanctions.