Skriba A.S. Latent prerequisites to the weakening of allied relations between Russia and Belarus

Abstract: As far as Belarusian authorities have been recently expressing their readiness to negotiate, the opinion has confirmed in Russia that Belarus has decided on Eurasian integration. But in the author’s opinion, such a confidence seems to be premature. It is not quite correct to speak about the decision without a public opinion analysis, though it doesn’t influence the real policy much yet. Besides, taking into account the ambiguous history of the political dialogue between the two countries, the longevity and the apriority of Belarus’s orientation towards the union with Russia casts serious doubts. The study is based mainly on the analysis of the transformation of public preferences in Belarus using sociological survey’s data. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the fact that after the latest presidential election in Belarus, the new sociological trends can appear which would influence the country’s foreign policy more profoundly. Russian expert and political community not always notice the inner Belarusian transformations. But Ukraine’s experience had shown that these transformations hold a serious potential of influence on the country’s development including the external and integration aspects, which are so important for Russia. 

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