Kovalev V.A. —
Features of the foreign experience of strategic management of the development of national pension systems
// National Security. – 2025. – ¹ 1.
– P. 1 - 19.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2025.1.72946
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/nbmag/article_72946.html
Read the article
Abstract: The object of the study is pension systems of foreign countries. The subject of the study is the strategic management of pension system development. The paper considers the main characteristics and provisions of the long-term plans of foreign governments for managing the development of national pension systems, interconnected with the long-term goals of the development of the state and containing a set of reasonable tasks, tools, methods and financial resources to achieve this goal. The author has conducted a comparative analysis of strategic planning documents for the prerequisites for their adoption and the planning period, the formulation of indicators of implementation and the main directions of development, the details of development activities and the complexity of the planned changes. The factors influencing and influencing the management of foreign pension systems in the long term are noted. The study examines the question of how much more changes in pension systems are caused by socio-economic shocks and impulses than by government plans. The work uses coefficient, factorial, comparative, vertical and horizontal analysis of pension provision indicators and the implementation of strategic planning documents in foreign countries, and highlights the main components of long-term plans. Conclusions are drawn about the partial preservation of situational management of the development of pension systems and the presence of difficulties in strategic management, complemented by the correlation of waves of increasing and decreasing the number of pension reforms with business cycles. The deterioration of the demographic burden is presented as the main prerequisite for reforms, and the inclusion in the tasks of plans in all countries to introduce or improve the funded component of pension provision and the development of a multicomponent pension system determines the construction of a multi-level and diversified pension system as the main general trend of strategic management. The development planning horizon is from 5 to 14 years. Among the main indicators of their implementation are the replacement rate, the real growth in the size of pensions, indicators of poverty and inequality. In turn, indicators of the balance of the pension system and the absence of an increase in the retirement age are provided only in Moldova and Ireland, respectively.
Kovalev V.A., Dorofeev M.L. —
Features of modern anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation
// Theoretical and Applied Economics. – 2025. – ¹ 1.
– P. 35 - 54.
DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2025.1.73031
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/etc/article_73031.html
Read the article
Abstract: The object of the study is the anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the parameters of modern anti-inflationary policy. The paper highlights the factors influencing the inflation deviation from the target and the parameters of anti-inflationary policy in Russia. Particular attention is paid to the contribution of fiscal momentum, the labor market situation, autonomous demand, administrative factors, exchange rate shifts, the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism, and coordination of monetary policy with fiscal policy. In the course of the research, the decomposition and dynamics of inflation in Russia and abroad are analyzed. The article evaluates the consequences of lowering the key rate in the current conditions, the possibility of increasing the output potential to a level corresponding to the current high aggregate demand, and the expediency of further pursuing a tight monetary policy. The research uses the following methods: graphical, comparative and coefficient analysis, vertical and horizontal, factor analysis of indicators that determine the problems of anti-inflationary policy. The information base of the study is represented by materials from the Bank of Russia and data from the Federal State Statistics Service. We identified pro- and de-inflationary factors and concluded that the positive output gap, stimulated by fiscal policy, record low unemployment, restrictions on increasing labor productivity and affordable labor, is the driver of high inflation in Russia at the present stage. The transfer of the effect of a number of tax changes to inflation will primarily depend on the further growth rates of government spending, their structure and degree of productivity. Lowering the key rate in the current conditions will worsen inflationary processes and will not allow timely increase in the potential of the Russian economy, which makes it possible to justify the need to continue to pursue a tight monetary policy. Fiscal policy has proved to be insensitive to the current monetary policy and acts significantly opposite to inflation targeting, including due to the preservation of a safe level of public debt and the low cost of servicing it. The growth of aggregate demand and the Russian economy slowed down in the last quarter of 2024, and the achievement of the target by 2026 will be facilitated by the results of recent investments in fixed assets, the absence of external shocks and the implementation of stricter fiscal policy regarding government spending.
Kovalev V.A. —
Budgetary and tax instruments for achieving the goals of the Strategy for the Long-term Development of the Pension System of the Russian Federation
// Taxes and Taxation. – 2024. – ¹ 6.
– P. 61 - 80.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-065X.2024.6.72877
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/ttmag/article_72877.html
Read the article
Abstract: The object of the study is the pension system of the Russian Federation, the subject is the implementation of the Strategy for the Long–term Development of the Pension System of the Russian Federation until 2030 ("Strategies"). The purpose of the study is to propose fiscal measures to ensure the achievement of the goals and objectives of the Strategy. The article considers the achievement of targets for the replacement rate and the size of the insurance pension, assesses the degree of development of the three-tier pension system, its balance and financial stability, the amount of budget revenues of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation from the taxation of pensions for non-state pension provision. Special attention is paid to the dynamics of the parameters of insurance premiums, the indicators of the budget of the Social Fund of Russia and its shortfall in income due to the effect of preferences for the payment of insurance premiums. The paper identifies the factors influencing the possibility of fully implementing the objectives of the Strategy and achieving its top-level goals by 2030. The work uses coefficient, graphical, factorial, comparative, vertical and horizontal analysis of pension provision indicators and budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, which determine the problems of Strategy implementation and ways to solve them. It is concluded that the target value of the replacement coefficient and the amount of the insurance pension are currently not being reached, both at retirement and at the beginning of the formation of pension rights in 2024, and the provisions of the Strategy regarding preferences for insurance premiums are not fully respected. The expenses of the SFR budget for the payment of insurance pensions are not fully covered by insurance premiums for compulsory pension insurance, however, a faster increase in the marginal base for insurance premiums and average wages than the fixed payment amount and the cost of the individual pension coefficient, as well as medium-term demographic trends and continued increase in the retirement age, will contribute to ensuring financial stability and balance the Russian pension system. The parameters affecting the level of pension provision in the distributive part of the OPS have been determined. The author proposes fiscal measures aimed at achieving the objectives of the Strategy, and evaluates their effects on revenues and expenditures of the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation.
Kovalev V.A. —
The development of green finance in the EAEU countries based on the assessment of the liquidity of green bonds
// Theoretical and Applied Economics. – 2023. – ¹ 4.
– P. 18 - 34.
DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2023.4.69426
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/etc/article_69426.html
Read the article
Abstract: The subject of the study is the liquidity of green bonds in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union as an important investment characteristic of a financial instrument for non-institutional investors and the development of green finance in the EAEU countries. The author analyzes the liquidity of green bonds traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange in the context of groups of liquidity indicators: urgency (time), volume and transaction costs proposed by domestic and foreign authors and whose application has been experimentally tested in the scientific literature. The factors influencing the liquidity of green bonds, the interrelation of liquidity indicators are considered, the main tools for stimulating supply and demand for green bonds in the EAEU countries and their applicability in the Russian Federation are highlighted. The paper provides grouping and rating of green bonds by liquidity levels. To calculate the liquidity levels, data is collected using the methods of the Moscow Exchange Information and Statistical Server on the specification of financial instruments, the history of transactions on it for the date interval and for the last trading day. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: the Russian green bond market has a cluster of illiquid bonds, the feature of which is the placement of bonds on the market until 2020. Stimulating demand for green bonds is possible by expanding the practice of sub-federal green loans, including through development institutions, together with an active policy of informing about the issue of green bonds. The imbalance in the volume of transactions and their frequency can be offset, among other things, by increasing the participation of non-institutional investors in debt green financing. Potentially successful is the placement of federal green bond loans in the Russian Federation based on the experience of issuing green government bonds in the Republic of Belarus and the exemption of individuals from taxation on personal income from the sale and repayment of green bonds in order to increase demand for green bonds. Increasing the liquidity of green bonds and the growth of their market volume through the implementation of the proposed measures will allow for positive effects on the socio-economic development of the EAEU countries: on the environmental situation, the sector of collective investments and the welfare of citizens.