International scientific and technical cooperation with Russia's participation in the space sphere under sanctions: results and prospects

Shugurov Mark Vladimirovich ORCID: 0000-0003-3604-3961 Doctor of Philosophy Professor of the Department of international law, Saratov State Law Academy 410028, Russia, Saratov, Volskaya str., 1 shugurovs@mail.ru Other publications by this author

The research was carried out at the expense of the grant of the Russian Science Foundation No. 23-28-01296, https://rscf.ru/project/23-28-01296/

Introduction

One of the key missions of modern humanity, which is carried out not only by individual efforts of States, but also in the form of international cooperation, can rightly be attributed to the exploration and exploration of outer space. Over the past decades, a powerful network of international cooperation has been created, carried out through the implementation of various programs that ensure both the growth of scientific knowledge about the Universe and allow solving earthly problems. Private structures are beginning to play an ever-increasing role. In general, the space industry has a systemic nature: the research and development sector is clearly connected with the "space" economy, the capital intensity of which is continuously increasing. Moreover, in the future – the formation of a "lunar" economy.

The exploration and exploration of space by modern humanity could go at a more significant pace. However, there are various obstacles and difficulties of a technological, economic and financial nature on the way to making a sharp breakthrough, which are simultaneously manifested in the field of international cooperation. Various difficulties in international relations have a negative impact on the space economy and hinder international space cooperation. Currently, one of the essential types of barriers should include unilateral restrictive measures, often referred to as sanctions and counter-sanctions. These measures complicate the synergy of efforts that is so necessary to make a radical breakthrough in the space sphere. It should be recognized that sanctions and counter–sanctions that disrupt the normal course of international space cooperation are a fairly new phenomenon associated with the geopolitical situation of 2022-2023.

It should be recalled that the economic and political sanctions against Russia that followed after 2014 did not seriously affect international economic, scientific and technological relations in the space sphere. Despite the cooling of relations with Western partners in 2014-2021. Russia, being in third place after the United States and China in terms of the number of launches, implemented large-scale joint projects. The funds received from foreign partners for launching foreign satellites and supplying rocket engines were a good item of the state budget. However, unprecedented sanctions, permanently imposed on Russia since 2022, have caused economic damage to the Russian space industry due to the curtailment of services for foreign launches. When it comes to the results of anti-Russian sanctions in relation to space science, it is possible to single out, firstly, negative consequences for the development of world and national science, and, secondly, negative consequences for Russia's participation in international scientific cooperation.

The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the formation and functioning of the anti–Russian sanctions regime in the space sphere of international cooperation falls at a time when there is a clear intensification of the space race, accompanied by major successes in the implementation of space programs of the United States, China and India with the simultaneous failure of the Russian lunar mission Luna-25. Against this background, there is a need to form ideas about the possible results of the implementation of the scenario of Russia's isolation in the space sphere of international cooperation due to the suspension or termination of cooperation with the most significant partners (the EU and the USA). All this is accompanied by the need for a theoretical justification for the adjustment of Russia's policy in the field of exploration and use of outer space, including the search for directions for its participation in international cooperation, not affected by sanctions and counter-sanctions.

The purpose of the article is to understand the features and consequences of the sanctions regime in relation to international scientific and economic cooperation with Russia's participation in the space sphere.

The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the empirical analysis undertaken by the author of the curtailment of space cooperation between Russia and the West, the initial data for which are abundantly presented by Internet resources, is embedded in the framework of the theory of scientific sanctions and related economic sanctions. Scientific sanctions are understood as restrictive measures against the research and development sector operating in a particular target State ^{[1; 2; 3; 4]}. However, sanctions in relation to the space sector of a State and its participation in the relevant sectoral international cooperation have not yet become the subject of special study. This can be justified by the fact that the states against which "scientific" sanctions were imposed were not space powers (Sudan, Venezuela, Serbia, the DPRK, Iraq, etc.). If we keep in mind such a dynamically developing state in scientific and technological terms as Iran, then contrary to the "scientific" sanctions accompanied by By limiting the influx of technology and reducing international scientific exchange, he still managed to launch his own satellite into Earth orbit in 2022 with the help of a Russian Soyuz launch vehicle. And yet, against this background, Russia is a special power with a highly developed space sector. Hence, the study of sanctions and their consequences in relation to the Russian space sector and its involvement in international cooperation may result in the formation of conceptual ideas about the phenomenon of the anti-Russian sanctions regime in the space sphere.

Research methodology. In the course of carrying out the research and obtaining its results, the author used a variety of methods and approaches. The use of general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, abstraction and generalization made it possible to move from diverse empirical data to theoretical generalizations regarding the nature and models of sanctions regimes against the Russian space industry and space science. Accordingly, the modeling method was applied. The comparison of the sanctions regimes imposed by the EU and the United States in the area of international cooperation under consideration was carried out using a comparative approach. The principle of historicism was used as a starting point in the process of analyzing Russia's international cooperation with Western countries before and after the process of scaling up sanctions in 2022-2023. In addition, the forecasting method was used, which became the basis for identifying trends in international cooperation in the face of anti-Russian sanctions and the possibility of returning to the traditions of scientific diplomacy.     

1. The destruction of space cooperation between Russia and the EU

Cooperation between Russia and Western countries in the space sphere was one of the areas of international cooperation during the Cold War. In many ways, it became possible thanks to the use of the tools of scientific diplomacy and the desire to put space outside the policy of confrontation. Relations between Russia, on the one hand, and European countries and the United States, on the other, have not always been rosy after the end of the Cold War. After its completion, the productivity of cooperation between Russia and the West has noticeably increased. One way or another, it is impossible to deny the importance of the support provided by foreign countries to the post-Soviet Russian space program. Of course, Western countries pursued their own interests, trying to prevent the spread of rocket technologies, and also, using Russia's competence in the space sphere, to stimulate its integration into the international supply chain of space technologies and launches of commercial satellites.

Against this background, we should not deny the positive results of the partnership between Europe and Russia to ensure the transition of Russian space science to a new phase of development. In the context of competition between Europe and the United States in the space sphere, Russia was one of Europe's main strategic partners in the space sphere. In this regard, the foreign scientific community has become interested in the processes of adjusting Russia's space policy and program goals, in restructuring its space industry, as well as in the trends of Russia's positioning within the framework of international space cooperation ^[5].

It should be noted that the partnership between the United States, Europe and Russia in the space sphere has proved to be largely stable in the face of geopolitical differences in the light of the events of 2014. However, the current geopolitical situation to one degree or another has led to the curtailment of international mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of space between Russia and Western countries. In a figurative form, a cosmic "echo" of earthly sanctions arose.

The sharp deterioration of relations between Russia and the EU as a result of the "storm" of multisectoral anti-Russian sanctions that began in 2022 had a direct impact on the curtailment of cooperation in the space sector. There is a complication in Russia's relations with the European Space Agency (hereinafter – ESA) as a whole and its member states. All this contrasts with the previous situation when, against the background of the introduction of Western sanctions in 2014, none of the ESA member states announced the termination of their space projects with the participation of Russia ^{[6, p. 63; 7]}. The factors of maintaining space cooperation and the absence of its involvement in the geopolitical confrontation are revealed in the most detailed way by M. Byers. Among them are the preservation of traditions of interaction in a situation of "complex interdependence", the extreme nature of outer space, the development of which requires a combination of efforts, etc. ^[8]. But the main thing still lies in the conclusion that the more states get used to this area of cooperation, the less tension and disruptions in international relations arise.

 At the end of February 2022, ESA issued a special statement regarding Russia [ESA statement N° 6-2022 Regarding Cooperation with Russia Following a Meeting with Member States on 28 February 2022. URL: https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/ESA_statement_regarding_cooperation_with_Russia_following_a_meeting_with_Member_States_on_28_February_2022 (date of application: 12.10.2023)], confirming the implementation of the sanctions imposed on Russia by its member states. At the same time, the organization called for a prudent approach, meaning an assessment of the consequences of the institutional gap with Russia on the implementation of each of the current programs that are being implemented in cooperation with Roscosmos. A prudent approach means coordinating the decisions taken with the decisions of the Member States, while at the same time working closely with industrial and international partners, in particular, with NASA regarding cooperation with Russia on the International Space Station (hereinafter referred to as the ISS).

In fact, it can be seen from the text of the statement that, unlike, for example, CERN, which consistently and somewhat "smoothly" imposed restrictions on cooperation with Russian scientific institutions from March to June 2022, ESA only states, and very cautiously, the complication of relations. The focus is on the statement of the termination of the Soyuz launch from the European cosmodrome in Kourou, as well as the impossibility of launches under the ExoMars program.

 As for individual European countries, it can be pointed out here as an example that the German Space Center (Deutsches Zentrum f?r Luft- und Raumfahrt / DLR) in its statement not only expressed its attitude to its own, but also formulated sanctions measures [DLR Ceases Bilateral Cooperation with Russia (March 3, 2022). URL: https://www.dlr.de/en/latest/news/2022/01/20220303_dlr-ceases-bilateral-cooperation-with-russia (accessed: 01.11.2023)]. They imply the termination of cooperation activities with Russian institutions on current projects and projects at the planning stage. In response, Roscosmos announced the termination of cooperation with Germany, including on scientific experiments on the ISS [Guenot M. Russia Axed Joint Experiments on the International Space Station in response to crippling sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine (March 3, 2022). URL: https://www.businessinsider.com/iss-russia-axes-joint-experiments-after-ukraine-invasion-sanctions-2022-3 (accessed: 10/16/2023)]. Along the way, we note that it was Germany, being one of the main scientific collaborators of Russia, that initiated the anti-Russian scientific sanctions. But, as you can see, Russia's retaliatory measures were taken exclusively in the space sphere of cooperation.   

One of the sanctions measures taken by Germany was the shutdown of the eROSITA telescope at the Spectrum-RG orbital X-ray observatory, which is a joint Russian-German project. A satellite developed by the NGO named after Lavochkina, was launched in 2019. It houses two telescopes. One of them is the ART–XC telescope, which was created by the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Russian Federal Nuclear Center VNIIEF. In turn, the second onboard eROSITA telescope is a development of the German Institute of Extraterrestrial Physics of the Max Planck Society. The objectives of the functioning of the orbital observatory include detailed mapping of the starry sky, including nearby stars, distant galactic clusters, sources of X-rays, etc. Despite the fact that the scanning work of the telescopes is carried out separately, but with elements of duplication, the creation of a complete picture depends on the combination of the data they receive.

At the end of February 2022, the Russian side was notified of the German side's plans to turn off the eROSITA telescope and put it into safe mode. The suspension of the operation of this telescope occurred in March 2022, As a result, it stopped transmitting data that German scientists should process. This had a negative impact on the state of astronomical science in Germany, and, ultimately, on the entire world astronomical community. 

In the statement of the management of the Roscosmos State Corporation, it was noted that the Spectrum-RG space observatory performs an exclusively civilian mission and that the actions of the German side, namely the Cosmonautics Aviation Center, are unacceptable and mean politicization of international research relations [Russia terminates cooperation with Germany on experiments on the ISS (03.03.2022). URL: https://ria.ru/20220303/mks-1776235975.html (accessed: 11/18/2023)]. Accordingly, the response will be the termination of joint experiments on the ISS, which actually happened.

In principle, NPO IM is responsible for the power supply and temperature regime of the telescope. Lavochkin, therefore, the resumption of its work is possible at any time. Therefore, the then head of Roscosmos, D. Rogozin, instructed in the summer of 2022 to restore the operation of the eROSITA telescope. Meanwhile, such a step was not approved by the Russian scientists themselves, because technical intervention from the Russian side could lead to damage to the telescope. According to the scientific director of the Observatory , Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences R. Syunyaeva, the telescope was not turned on. At the same time, Russian and German specialists monitor the condition of the telescope so that it can be turned on painlessly when the time comes [Results of the year in cosmonautics (21.12.2022). URL: https://ria.ru/20221221/kosmos-1840170326.html (date of application: 10.10.2023)]. Thus, the interaction of German and Russian scientists continues in the format of a "sleep" mode.

The reason for Russia's retaliatory measures was not only the restrictive measures taken by scientific organizations and institutions of the EU countries, but also the EU sectoral sanctions against large Russian enterprises. As a means of achieving the goal of influencing Russian foreign policy, the West chose to reduce exports of high-tech products to Russia [Herb J., Mattingly P. How Significant are the US Sanctions on Russia? (February 25, 2022). URL: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/24/politics/biden-sanctions-russia-ukraine/index.html (date of appeal: 11/19/2023)], as well as the introduction of sanctions against high-tech companies of the Roscosmos state Corporation, such as the Samara RCC Progress and JSC TsNIIMash. In addition, the N.L. Dukhov All-Russian Research Institute of Automation, which participates in the development of the HADRON-RM neutron detector necessary for the implementation of the ExoMars program, was included in the sanctions list. At the beginning of March 2022, three more enterprises operating in the space industry appeared on the US sanctions list [the US added three more Roscosmos enterprises to the sanctions list (03.03.2022). URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/826143 (accessed: 11/21/2023)]. In particular, JSC Federal Research and Production Center "Titan-Barricades" produces solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), as well as launchers of strategic missile systems, launchers for tactical and operational-tactical missile systems and large-caliber artillery guns. JSC "Salavat Chemical Plant" produces liquid ICBMs, and JSC "State Rocket Center named after Academician V.P. Makeev" acts as the main research and development center in the field of liquid and solid-fuel strategic missile systems with ballistic missiles.     

It should be noted that the suspension of cooperation with Russia occurred literally after the European Space Summit (February 16, 2022), the EU as a whole and ESA in particular announced their intention to move to a new ambitious stage of space policy aimed at turning Europe into a world leader in space [Decisions N° 4-2022 from the 2022 Space Summit (February 16, 2022). URL: https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/Decisions_from_the_2022_Space_Summit ) (accessed 12.08.2023)].

Of course, the decision of the Space Summit did not mention the importance of cooperation with Russia in the space sphere, but it was essential for the implementation of the EU space program. However, subsequent events have shown that the destruction of relations with Russia has led to the curtailment of the achievement of planned indicators for the implementation of the EU space program. So, in 2022, two Soyuz-2 launches were planned with four satellites of the European Galileo navigation system. The organization purchasing the services was ESA. In 2023, ESA intended to launch a Russian rocket with an EarthCARE Earth exploration mission and with the Euclid infrared space telescope. In addition, France's plans included the launch of Soyuz-2 in order to launch the Composante Spatiale Optique–3 (CSO-3) reconnaissance satellite into orbit.

As a form of Russia's response to the introduction of the first package of EU sanctions, which provided for a ban on the export of goods and technologies for the space industry to Russia, as well as the provision of technical assistance and other services for the maintenance of imported equipment, Roskomos decided to stop launching Soyuz-2 launch vehicles from the Kourou cosmodrome (Guiana Space center). As a result of this decision, three rockets and three upper stages remaining at the cosmodrome were preserved. The Russian staff returned to their homeland. The decision of Roscosmos to withdraw its personnel from the European cosmodrome meant the suspension of services, which led to the unrealization of missions planned on the basis of the launch of the Soyuz-2 launch vehicle. This meant the termination of a successful long-term cooperation. Recall that the launches began in October 2011. In general, dozens of European spacecraft designed to perform various functions were put into orbit. The last launch of two satellites that ensure the existence of the European global navigation system Galileo was carried out in early December 2021, i.e. almost before the beginning of the aggravation of Russian-European relations. 

Of course, Europe has its own launch vehicles, but they cannot replace the Soyuz-2. For example, the Vega light rocket-With insufficient power to launch the above-mentioned Galileo spacecraft into orbit. In addition, with regard to the Ariane-5 heavy rocket, a decision was previously made to discontinue its operation. This was largely due to the fact that its operation was three times more expensive than the cost of one launch of the Russian Soyuz. The Ariane-5 should be replaced by the Ariane-6 launch vehicle, which, in principle, competes with Soyuz-2, but, at least until the end of 2023, it will not be put into operation due to its imperfection.

In a situation where ESA lost access to Russian launch vehicles, significant difficulties arose with the implementation of the European satellite navigation project Galileo. As a result, an agreement was signed with SpaceX to launch four Galileo satellites in 2024. As noted by foreign observers, this "temporary alliance exposes Europe's dependence on non-European players in the most important sector" [Noud? F. Face ? la Russie, la faiblesse europ?enne expos?e dans ce secteur (10/27/2023). URL: https://lanouvelletribune.info/2023/10/face-a-la-russie-la-faiblesse-europeenne-exposee-dans-ce-secteur / (date of request: 12.10.2023)]. This dependence was the result of a reduction in the scale of competition in the space launch market. But there is another aspect here, namely, an increase in EU spending on launching its satellites. According to available information, the EU will be forced to pay about 180 million euros for launching its new Galileo satellites into orbit, which is one and a half times more than the cost of launch services provided by Roscosmos [Tamm R. How anti-Russian sanctions humiliate the "space pride" of the European Union (10.11.2023). URL: https://baltnews.com/Russia_West/20231110/1026147521/Kak-antirossiyskie-sanktsii-unizhayut-kosmicheskoe-samolyubie-Evrosoyuza.html (accessed: 11/20/2023)]. This is largely due to the initially higher cost of launching Falcon-9 rockets owned by Space X.

As we believe, the cost aspect is still not the main one, because the technological sovereignty and global competitiveness of the EU in the space industry are affected. Firstly, there is a problem of ensuring the safety and inviolability of European technologies used in the Galileo satellite system. Secondly, this system itself was considered as a "European alternative" to the American GPS navigation system. As a result, the negative consequence of the anti-Russian sanctions was the problematization of the EU's "strategic autonomy" in the process of developing near-Earth space.

The situation of sanctions affected the implementation of the ambitious Russian-European program "ExoMars-2022", implemented by ESA and Roscosmos [ExoMars/Exomars. Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (10.03.2022). URL: https://iki.cosmos.ru/missions/exomars (accessed: 11/24/2023)]. Already at the first stages, the interaction was constructive. The cooperation is based on the provisions of the Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Exploration of Mars and Other Bodies of the Solar System by Robotic Means between Roscosmos and the European Space Agency (ESA) [Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Exploration of Mars and Other Bodies of the Solar System by Robotic Means between the Federal Space Agency of Russia (Roscosmos) and the European Space Agency (ESA) (March 14, 2013). URL: http://press.cosmos.ru/sites/default/files/pr_files/iki_ran_2014-02-04_soveshchanie_po_nauchnym_priboram_proekta_22ekzomars22.pdf (accessed: 11/20/2023)]. It secured Russia's participation in the ExoMars project and further access to the development of joint projects in the field of Jupiter and Moon exploration. The essence of the ExoMars program is to explore Mars from the orbit of an artificial satellite, as well as to study its surface in order to detect traces of life in the past and present. This program is an example of the addition of the efforts of the two sides. ESA's interest in cooperation with Russia was caused by the lack of experience of successful European Mars missions, which is due to the imperfection of landing platforms.

 Technically, the ExoMars station consists of a European flight module and a Russian descent vehicle. The latter includes the Russian landing platform "Kazachok" and the European rover – rover Rosalind Franklin, capable of drilling the ground to a depth of 2 meters. The stationary landing probe "Kazachok", which is to land the European rover Rosalind Franklin, was developed by the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, due to doubts about the operability of the parachute system, it was decided to postpone the launch until 2022.

The legal consequence of the statement of the ESA Governing Council adopted at the meeting on March 16-17, 2022 [ESA. ¹ 9-2022. ExoMars Suspended (17 March 2022). URL:  https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/ExoMars_suspended (date of appeal: 11/24/2023)], is that the implementation of these provisions of the Agreement will be suspended. The Council recognized the impossibility of carrying out current cooperation with Roscosmos in relation to the ExoMars mission with launch in 2022 and instructed the ESA Director General to take measures to suspend activities within the framework of cooperation accordingly. Therefore, the launch scheduled for September 2022 did not take place. In addition, the Council authorized the ESA Director General to conduct an accelerated analytical study in order to better determine the available options for further actions for the implementation of the ExoMars rover mission. Thus, we are talking about finding a solution to implement the program without the participation of Russia. Against this background, it is quite natural that the ex-head of Roscosmos called this approach destructive [Rogozin admitted that the ExoMars-2022 mission would not take place due to the "destructive position" of ESA (03/10/2022). URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/827389 (date of application: 14.10.2023)]. This can be justified by the fact that the mission to Mars is postponed for several years, which weakens the competitiveness of both Europe and Russia in the face of the achievements of the United States and China.

In addition, the European side withdrew from the planned Russian lunar missions Luna-25, Luna-26 and Luna-27, within which it was supposed to develop various instruments. And this also weakens the positions of both Europe and Russia in the framework of the lunar race. In turn, the exit of Roscosmos from the ExoMars program led to a significant problem for ESA, which was expressed in the absence of a landing module for the rover. However, ESA did not abandon its plans, announcing the allocation of a large sum for the continuation of the Mars exploration program. Following a two-day meeting at the end of November 2022, it was decided to allocate 700 million euros for the continuation of the project [Ministers Back ESA's Bold Ambitions for Space with a Record 17% Rise. Press Release N° 62–2022 (November 23, 2022). URL: https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/Ministers_back_ESA_s_bold_ambitions_for_space_with_record_17_rise (accessed: 09/16/2023)]. It is expected that the rover will be launched in 2028, and Mars exploration with its help will begin in 2029. The ExoMars space program, which was on the verge of collapse due to the withdrawal of the Russian side from the project, is planned to be implemented together with the United States in cooperation with NASA [ESA considers NASA as an ExoMars partner instead of Roscosmos (03/17/2022). URL: https://www.interfax.ru/world/829841 (accessed: 09/10/2023)]. For its part, NASA also expressed its intention to support the project, since the ExoMars rover program can play an important role in preparing for NASA's Mars mission in the long term.

It should be noted that Russia, as well as ESA, has not abandoned the Mars project. At least, this can be judged by the statement of the then head of Roscosmos about Russia's preparation of an independent mission to Mars [Rogozin said that Russia itself would send a mission to Mars (03/17/2022). URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/829824 ) (accessed: 10/30/2023)]. However, unlike Europe, when preparing such a mission, Russia will have to rely on its own technological and financial resources. However, the planned cooperation of Europe with NASA is only a minor touch. As can be seen from the initiatives of the head of ESA, Europe should seriously engage in ensuring technological sovereignty in the field of rocket engineering based on the transition to innovative interaction between the public and private sectors, in which public institutions will more effectively purchase technological solutions from industry [Cit. by: Silver A. European Space Agency Chief Seeks ‘Forward-Looking Decisions' (February 25, 2023). URL: https://www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-europe-infrastructure-2023-5-european-space-agency-chief-seeks-forward-looking-decisions / (accessed: 05.09.2023)].

And finally, the last thing I would like to focus on is the termination of Russia's participation in the next ongoing projects of the European Horizon 2020 program dedicated to space topics. 

The mentioned topics of the projects indicate that Russian research teams will be deprived of the opportunity to generate new scientific knowledge based on empirical scientific data. However, access to new knowledge itself is unlikely to suffer. 

2. Cooperation between Russia and the United States in the space sphere under sanctions: preserving the bridges of scientific diplomacy

Another partner of Russia in the field of space exploration, relations with which are directly affected by the geopolitical confrontation, are the United States. This state, being the main geopolitical opponent of Russia, is at the same time its main scientific partner.

In 1992, a number of agreements were concluded between the United States and Russia concerning space cooperation and human spaceflight [1992 and Subsequent U.S. – U.S.S.R. Space Agreements U.S.-Russian Cooperation in Space (Part 10 of 14). URL: https://www.princeton.edu /~ota/disk1/1995/9546/954610.PDF (accessed 05.09.2023)]. In 1993, the Clinton administration invited Russia to act as a partner of the ISS project along with ESA, Canada and Japan. At the same time, quite pragmatic interests of the USA and Russia in the implementation of the ISS project were accompanied by rhetoric of service to humanity ^{[9, p. 39]}.  As the Russian authors note, "initially, the implementation of space programs, focusing on the scientific component due to the lack of minimum necessary knowledge, was carried out exclusively by the USSR and the USA in the conditions of the Cold War and was aimed at obtaining appropriate advantages for states. At the same time , space research was based on a number of rational factors: a) national prestige; b) research spirit; c) development of science, technology and education. At present, the potential of space commercialization and the strengthening of the state's economy have also been added to these factors" ^{[10, p. 130]}.

Unlike the EU, which boldly severs scientific ties with Russia, the United States shows considerable flexibility in this regard and seeks to preserve the bridges of scientific diplomacy. From our point of view, this is caused by the position of pragmatism, which takes precedence over the axiological spirit of the militant sanctions measures imposed by Europe. Of course, this generalization does not mean that the entire scope of scientific cooperation between Russia and the United States has remained outside politics.

To date, there are several areas of erosion of cooperation. So, it is necessary to point out such a direction as the supply of rocket engines, which began in the mid-1990s. Roscosmos announced the termination of deliveries to the United States of RD-180 engines, on which the Atlas-5 rocket flies, and RD-181 engines used in the first stage of the Antares rocket [Russia has stopped deliveries rocket engines in the USA (03.03.2022). URL: https://ria.ru/20220303/postavki-1776235132.html (date of application: 17.10.2023)]. This step is Roscosmos' response to Western sanctions. It should be noted that these deliveries were discontinued back in 2021. This was due to the fact that the United Launch Alliance (ULA) company discontinued the Atlas V rocket, which flew on Russian engines [Roulette J. ULA Stops Selling its Centerpiece Atlas V, Setting Path for the Rocket’s Retirement  (August 26, 2021). URL: https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/26/22641048/ula-boeing-lockheed-end-sales-atlas-v-rocket-russia-rd180 (accessed: 05.09.2023)]. Accordingly, the US need for RD-180 engines has disappeared. In addition, due to the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the military department was obliged to stop using missiles based on Russian engines by 2022. Thus, orders for Atlas-5 missiles have sharply decreased.

Another reason is that disposable Atlases turned out to be uncompetitive compared to reusable Falcons. Currently, a new Vulcan rocket with American engines is being developed. But this does not mean that Russian engines are not in demand. The RD-181 engine is needed by Orbital Sciences Corporation, which produces Antares rockets, as well as Cygnus cargo ships sent using these rockets to the ISS.

Since 2009, Venus research programs have been developed in Russia. Currently, a new program is being developed, involving the launch of at least three vehicles (2029-2034). One of them is the automatic interplanetary station "Venus–D", the launch of which is scheduled for 2029. The device should carry out the study of Venus from orbit, as well as launch the lander. NASA joined the project, originally conceived as a purely Russian one, in 2013. Such a connection made sense: due to high temperatures, a new generation of electronics is required, since conventional electronics can work on the planet and in its orbit for only a few hours. Therefore, the American side proposed to design several fairly lightweight additional modules designed to work on the surface of Venus, as well as a balloon with which to study its atmosphere. The NASA equipment was planned to use ultra-heat-resistant electronics capable of functioning for up to four months. However, under the conditions of sanctions, NASA's participation will be impossible [Rogozin called it impossible for the United States to participate in the Venus-D project under the conditions of sanctions (02/26/2022). URL: https://tass.ru/kosmos/13872711 (date of application: 10.10.2023)]. In turn, this will cause difficulties both in the implementation of the Russian program, which will be associated with the diversion of forces and funds to create super-heat-resistant electronics, and will deprive the American side of opportunities to contribute to a major project and obtain joint results. Against this background, Roscosmos plans to involve China as a partner in the project, or to implement it independently.

Historically, Russian and American space programs have been closely intertwined, starting with the Soyuz–Apollo project (1972-1975), which was implemented at the height of the Cold War. Already at that time, a significant pattern emerged, consisting in a combination of rivalry and cooperation, the proportion of which changed over time. As emphasized in foreign media, "in the past, space travel allowed building geopolitical bridges, especially during the Cold War" [Russland stoppt Zusammenarbeit in der Raumfahrt mit dem Westen (03/11/2023). URL: https://www.srf.ch/news/international/partnerschaften-im-weltraum-russland-stoppt-zusammenarbeit-in-der-raumfahrt-mit-dem-westen (accessed: 11/20/2023)]. It seems that under the conditions of sanctions, there has been an increase in the degree of rivalry, but the moments of cooperation have not disappeared anywhere.

In the space of international scientific and technical cooperation, there are areas where the termination of interaction carries risks. Such risks may arise due to the termination of cooperation between Roscosmos and NASA within the ISS. If Russia unilaterally withdraws from the project, there will be a danger of the station falling to Earth or its collision with space debris. However, NASA is not going to withdraw from the project in the medium term [Fisher K. Russia's Space Agency Warns US Sanctions Could ‘Destroy’ Cooperation on the International Space Station (February 25, 2022). URL: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/24/politics/russian-space-agency-us-sanctions-international-space-station/index.html (accessed: 11/15/2023)], simultaneously developing various scenarios, for example, keeping the ISS in orbit using Cygnus and Dragon cargo ships. In the first half of 2022, Roskomos worked out a decision on Russia's withdrawal from the ISS project after 2024 and the transition to the final stage of cooperation between Russia and the United States at the specified station [Russia decided to withdraw from the ISS project after 2024 (07/26/2022). URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/853883 (accessed: 09.10.2023)]. Joint experiments previously planned on the ISS have become conducted independently. Moreover, the implementation of the NASA and Roscosmos cross-flight program was discontinued [Why cross-flights of Russians and Americans to the ISS may not take place (05/15/2022). URL: https://news.mail.ru/society/51310133 / (accessed: 06.11.2023)].

But, as it turned out later, the ISS demonstrates amazing resilience to geopolitical shocks. However, this manifested itself back in 2014, when NASA sought to put cooperation outside of politics ^{[11, p. 685]}. With the arrival of the new leadership of Roscosmos (Yuri Borisov), relations between NASA and Russia have stabilized, and the exit from the ISS project is scheduled after 2028. On July 15, 2022, "Roscosmos announced the signing of an Agreement on joint cross-flights of Russian cosmonauts and American astronauts to the ISS, which implies three flights of Russians on American ships" [Russia and the United States signed an agreement on cross-flights to the ISS (07/15/2022). URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/852379 (accessed: 10/27/2023)].  In addition to this, the cross-flight program was expanded in 2023 for another mission.

Currently, three Roscosmos cosmonauts (S. Prokopyev, D. Petelin, A. Fedyaev), three NASA astronauts (Fr. Rubio, St. Bowen, V. Hoburg), as well as one UAE astronaut (S. al-Neyadi) are on duty aboard the ISS. On August 26, 2023, "the Falcon-9 launch vehicle with SpaceX's Crew Dragon manned spacecraft launched to the ISS from the Kennedy Space Center Spaceport.  On board is the crew of the Crew-7 mission (Roscosmos cosmonaut K. Borisov, NASA astronaut Zh. Mogbeli, ESA astronaut A. Mogensen and astronaut of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency S. Furukawa) [The rocket with the Crew Dragon spacecraft launched to the ISS from the cosmodrome in the USA (08/26/2023). URL:  https://news.mail.ru/society/57567836/?frommail=1&utm_partner_id=442 (accessed: 10/27/2023)].

In connection with the plans to launch the Russian orbital station project (2024-2032) [Meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov (30.06.2023). URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71560 (accessed: 12.09.2023)]. Accordingly, it is important not to lose the competence of manned flights. And this means the need to continue international cooperation in space, since the United States, for its part, plans to support the work of the ISS until 2030. In parallel, NASA does not associate the future of near-space exploration exclusively with the ISS, in the creation of which they have invested a lot of money. Therefore, the United States began to finance the development of concepts for commercial space stations, which should smoothly replace the ISS by the end of the decade.

Compared to Europe, the United States takes a softer position regarding the termination of space cooperation with Russia. Therefore, it is no coincidence that the electronic media notes that "Washington and Moscow support cooperation in space, despite the fact that relations have reached the lowest level in recent decades due to the Ukrainian conflict, when astronauts are stationed together on the ISS, as well as being transported back and forth together" [Jones G. Russia, US agree additional US astronaut flight to International Space Station // Reuters (August 25, 2023). URL: https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/russia-us-agree-additional-us-astronaut-flight-iss-interfax-2023-08-25/( accessed: 12.09.2023)]. However, with all this, rather rigid approaches are being expressed. So, according to D. Steitz, one of the former heads of NASA structures, the continuation of the space partnership with Russia is an obvious threat to the national security of the United States and the security of our allies [Steitz D. NASA Must De-orbit the Space Station and Say ‘Dasvidaniya’ to Russia (August 14, 2023). URL: https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4144880-nasa-must-de-orbit-the-space-station-and-say-dasvidaniya-to-russia / (date of request: 17.10.2023)]. This is justified by the fact that NASA has fallen into a "quagmire" of critical technical dependence on Russia, which makes the work of the ISS almost impossible without Russian support. Moreover, D. Steitz proposes to discard all the instruments of "soft" force to influence Russia by refusing in principle to cooperate within the ISS and further – the termination of its functioning as such. However, this is just a private opinion. Cooperation with the United States in the space sector continues under sanctions. But at the same time, it has an inertial character and is unlikely to be integrated into new promising projects. At least, this is the state of affairs in the medium term.

It is rather short-sighted to believe that it was the geopolitical crisis framed by sanctions that became a factor in the curtailment of Russian-American space cooperation. K. Tomashevsky draws attention to the fact that such trends manifested themselves during the sanctions period of 2014-2021, but were not caused by sanctions. He noted that both Russia and Roscosmos are not included in future American space plans. "The Americans will go further and deeper into space without Russian partners. The United States will not depend on Russia and the international dialogue on the future in space will gradually cease without the need ^{[12, p. 144]}. K. Tomashevsky, concluding that there is a trend of degradation of international cooperation in space, nevertheless, comes to the conclusion that it is extremely important to continue the development of cooperation in outer space.

Currently, the continuation of cooperation with Russia under sanctions has not even a symbolic, but a purely inertial content. The USA has grandiose plans ahead for the implementation of Artemis projects, but, as you know, already without Russia [Ortega A.A. Artemis Accords A Step Towards International Cooperation or Further Competition (December 15, 2020). URL: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/artemis-accords-step-toward-international-cooperation-or-further-competition (date of application: 17.11.2023)]. The analytical environment notes that the Artemis agreements may lead to an escalation of tensions existing between the United States and its allies, on the one hand, China and Russia, on the other. The main drawback of the agreements is the neglect of the principle of multilateralism, which is expressed in the desire of the United States to consolidate its dominance in the space sphere. However, even before the phase of aggravation of the geopolitical confrontation, it was concluded that "the ongoing political confrontation between Russia and the United States creates prerequisites for an aggravation of the space race between the countries, and the recent successes of NASA raise the question of ending or reducing cooperation between Moscow and Washington in the field of space exploration" ^{[13, p. 313]}.

In this regard, there is a high degree of probability that the US-Russian space cooperation will be finally curtailed after the decommissioning of the ISS. This prospect is complemented by the absence of any visible mechanisms for the resumption of cooperation between Europe and Russia in this area. In the long term, it is completely unclear whether Europe will take steps to resume cooperation with Roscosmos. Thus, there is a sense of prospects for fragmentation of international space cooperation.     

In view of the above, the far-sighted approach expressed by J. Grunert is of great interest. In many ways, it resembles the approach of K. Tomashevsky. In particular, J. Grunert points to factors of strategic importance that should be regarded as arguments in favor of continuing cooperation with Russia in the space sphere.  Grunert J. The Future of western-Russian Civil-Space Cooperation (26.05.2022). URL: https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/the-future-of-western-russian-civil-space-cooperation / (date of request: 17.10.2023)]. First, Russia's status as a nuclear power requires reducing the likelihood of large-scale competition between Western-oriented blocs, as well as Russia- and China-oriented blocs. Secondly, at one time, space cooperation served as a means of reducing political tensions. The use of such a tool should be continued in the current situation of the geopolitical crisis. In other words, the space partnership can ensure the resumption of an apolitical sphere of cooperation, which can become a tool for solving politically colored terrestrial problems.

As you can see, this approach seeks to revive the traditions of scientific diplomacy. However, its implementation is possible only in the case of the will of the two sides. It seems that Russia has been and remains a champion of preserving and continuing multilateral cooperation. At least, this is evidenced by the position of the new leadership of Roscosmos. This kind of position correlates the thoughts of Russian scientists that "despite the current geopolitical situation, there is still hope that cooperation in space will continue at the global level" ^{[14, p. 15]}. The ideas expressed allow us to recognize the preservation of pockets of common sense and strategic thinking within the framework of political discourse, in some of its layers deformed under the influence of the logic of sanctions confrontation.           

3. Prospects for the development of the space industry under sanctions: national and international aspects

As follows from the previous presentation, a certain area of international cooperation in the field of space exploration and development with the participation of Russia is characterized by the termination or certain curtailment of the partnership. The specifics of the situation in comparison with other areas of international scientific and technical cooperation of Russia lies in the active countermeasures that were taken by the Russian side. In other words, the destruction of cooperation takes place as a result of Western sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions. In some cases, the instruments of scientific diplomacy were actively rejected not only by the collective West, but also by Russia. Therefore, it can be argued that if other spheres of international scientific cooperation have experienced the impact of geopolitics, which led to institutional gaps, then the space industry has turned out to be a direct sphere of political confrontation. This was not observed even during the Cold War. The new head of Roscosmos, namely Yuri Borisov, appointed in the summer of 2022, is alien to outrageous statements and seeks to take space cooperation beyond the policy framework [Head of Roscosmos Borisov: international policy should not affect projects on the ISS (07/29/2022). URL: https://ria.ru/20220729/mks-1805865580.html (accessed: 11/20/2023)]. In particular, he attempted to resume cooperation with ESA on the ExoMars project. However, it was not successful. But, as you could see, in the case of the ISS, there was a normalization of relations.

Against this background, the question arises whether it should be argued that in the current sanctions situation there is isolation of Russia in the field of cosmonautics and space science? Of course, there are moments of such isolation. This has unfavorable results, since space exploration and development, due to the increasing scale of the tasks being solved, requires the combined efforts of various states, including technological and financial ones. Despite the fact that Russian cosmonauts regularly work in orbit, Russia does not have a lunar rover on the far side of the Moon, like China, orbiters around Mars, like India and the UAE, rovers and a fleet of space telescopes, like the United States. The lag in the space race, outlined even before the SVO, is obvious. But there are also significant breakthroughs. Thus, the Russian grouping of high-tech high-resolution remote sensing satellites and communication satellites is in full swing. It is this grouping that opens up prospects for solving earthly problems, which are currently the most important for Russia. And these are both defense and economic problems. The provision of services related to satellite systems is a fast–growing economic sector.

But, on the other hand, there is no complete abandonment of ambitions for the exploration of deep space. Under the conditions of sanctions, Russia does not abandon these plans. This includes, for example, the resumption of the lunar exploration program, as well as the creation of its own near-Earth observatories in order to promote space research. Of course, in the conditions of suspension of cooperation with Western partners, we have to rely mainly on ourselves, including building up the potential of existing technological reserves, in the process of exploration and exploration of the Moon and Mars. All this will require increasing the availability of its own instrument base and domestic software. Thus, the thesis put forward a few years ago that "although Russia is trying to diversify its space activities, it still does not receive tangible benefits from its efforts" ^{[15, p. 11]} requires its correction.   

The perception of the current situation in terms of Russia's scientific and technological isolation in the space sphere seems to be incorrect. This can be justified by the fact that in the modern space race, the elements of state rivalry are beginning to prevail over the moments of cooperation. But such dominance is not absolute. Rivalry can be regarded as self-isolation. The ambitions of space powers hinder the synergy of efforts, lead to duplication of actions and to an increase in the amount of funding for space exploration in general. From the point of view of solving the problem of all mankind in space exploration and the development of space research, such a scenario looks irrational. But there is a different model of rationality here, and it consists in achieving two goals by space powers – strengthening their status and authority in the world, as well as using space resources to strengthen their economic power. Different space powers have different ratios of these goals. It seems that Russia's scientific goals prevail over economic benefits. Perhaps, due to the distant traces of Russian cosmism, Russia also understands the need for cooperation, not competition. However, the elements of cooperation do not disappear as such. For example, the United States is aimed at continuing cooperation with Russia on the ISS, and ESA intends to cooperate with NASA regarding the ExoMars mission.

Thus, it cannot be argued that space exploration has been completely fragmented today. From our point of view, it is more correct to talk about the formation of several poles. The most significant are the USA, the EU and China, around which diverse international collaborations are being formed. Currently, the United States has managed to rally 22 states around the Artemis agreements. The EU – unlike the USA – represented by ESA initially acts as a collective center, which, in principle, is open to foreign partners – the USA, Japan, etc. China can be attributed to closed-type centers that strive for breakthroughs in space, relying mainly on their own forces, but not without the participation of some foreign partners.  

In this context, contrary to Western sanctions, Russia will have to become a "center of power", which is characterized by its own composition of international cooperation. Cooperation within the BRICS, as well as within the EAEU, opens up very significant prospects. In the latter case, we will point to the ongoing Program of the EAEU in the field of the orbital grouping of remote sensing satellites [Decision of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council No. 4 dated July 17, 2020 "On the interstate program "Integrated System of the EAEU Member States for the Production and Provision of Space and Geoinformation Products and Services Based on National Data Sources of Remote sensing of the Earth". URL: https://docs.eaeunion.org/docs/ru-ru/01226831/err_20072020_4_doc.pdf (date of application: 14.11.2023)]. The countries of the Asia-Pacific region can become new partners of Russia ^[16]. In the context of Russia's return to Africa, the revival of space cooperation with Algeria and Egypt is already noticeable. Cooperation with the African Space Agency, which is being created, will open a new page. But, one way or another, the strengthening of partnership with China seems to be very significant, which has progressed from the conclusion of an Intergovernmental Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation in the field of the creation of an International Scientific Lunar Station and the development of a roadmap for its construction (2021) to the signing of a special cooperation Agreement (2022).

Recall that unlike Russia, which has only completed the first stage of the preliminary design of its own orbital station, China plans to complete its own manned space station at the end of 2023. Due to China's space ambitions and its desire to achieve a space breakthrough based mainly on its own efforts, Russia's role in this cooperation risks being purely auxiliary.

If we think in general terms about the diversification of Russian space cooperation in the face of sanctions and the state of the space industry as such, then a model of very restrained optimism is very appropriate. Sanctions regimes affecting the national space industry have exacerbated the problem of access to foreign space technologies, as well as hindered the economic transformation of the industry. In foreign literature, the conclusion is formulated that "Russia is gradually moving towards a kind of autarky, allowing the country to maintain its independence, but isolating itself from other major space powers. Maintaining its strategic autonomy in space will depend on its ability to develop domestic electronic components for the space industry or sustainably supply them from alternative suppliers.… In general, Russia's position as a leading space power is weakening, which can turn into a destructive factor" ^{[17, p. 7]}.

However, from our point of view, these conclusions should be perceived not as a statement of an inevitable scenario, but as a challenge that should be answered by the Russian space policy. And the point here is not only in the genuine or imaginary weakening of Russia as one of the leading space powers. In the context of geopolitical cataclysms, the issue of prospects for global cooperation in the field of space exploration and use as such is being actualized. The Russian case is a trigger for understanding such prospects in the light of the continuation of the traditions of scientific diplomacy, and in the context of rethinking historical experience. As O. Dubrovina notes, it is necessary to continue studying historical precedents of international cooperation in space, in particular, Soviet scientific diplomacy in the space sphere during the Cold War from the point of view of the correlation of scientific and technical cooperation and competition in order to gain valuable experience ^{[18, p. 39]}.

It seems that diplomacy in international relations in the space sphere is designed to actualize the potential of international cooperation, especially in the context of geopolitical confrontation, which coincided – in the formulation of A. Witze – with the "re-modeling" of geopolitics in the space sphere ^[19]. 

At one time, a group of foreign experts argued that international cooperation in space exploration could potentially bring significant benefits to all participants, especially if it is properly managed. In a special analytical review, it was noted that "the benefits in the form of financial efficiency, programmatic and political stability, as well as the stability of the workforce will be received by those partners who decide to approach space exploration as a mutually beneficial undertaking. In addition, international cooperation should be clearly included as an aspect and goal of a modern space exploration program in order to ensure coordination before creating new equipment" [Broniatowski D.A., Faith G.R., Sabathier V.G. The Case for Managed International Cooperation in Space Exploration (2006). P. 7. URL: https://web.mit.edu/adamross/www/BRONIATOWSKI_ISU07.pdf (date accessed: 11/23/2023)]. As practice shows, coordination is carried out both at the government and industry level and allows for advance planning and standardization. This allows you to increase interoperability through the strategic use of redundancy. Moreover, the promotion of a set of industrial standards for cooperation in space exploration provides leadership in the space sphere. These authors stressed that the means of achieving US leadership was the support of the ISS project, one of the key roles in which, as is known, Russia played.

Of course, no one denies the existence of competition between the space programs of the United States and the USSR. But in relation to that period, the literature concludes that there was "a noticeable concern about the need to limit the dangers observed in this rivalry. At one time, Soviet successes in space led to a serious revision of the image of the USSR and, to some extent, the Soviet system. It was even believed that the USSR, apparently, had overtaken the United States in this area. With the collapse of the USSR, a new "space race" between the Russian Federation and the United States was launched in the 1990s. In fact, this race continues to be one of the important moments in Russian-American relations at the present time" ^{[20, p. 222]}. Indeed, all this is true. But now other centers of power of the space industry are also participating in the "race", sometimes acting as initiators of collective cooperation, but on a quite noticeable framework, i.e. on a limited basis. On a global scale, competition prevails, which is often understood as a "race". The main axis of competition seems to be the "USA –China" ^[21]. In essence, the competition of the world centers of space exploration and exploration is based on the competition of national models of the space industry, assuming a different degree of involvement of the private sector, as well as the competition of models of local international cooperation. In the expert environment, it is predicted that "the American space breakthrough will be able to aggravate the already existing competition in space, in which the advantages will be on the side of the United States" ^{[22, p. 137]}.

Accordingly, against this background, it is very difficult to talk about universal multilateral cooperation in the space sphere. Thus, the fundamental principle of cooperation ^[23] loses its universal significance. In this case, there are limitations in the addition of efforts and the emergence of a single cosmic human civilization.

In this regard, the approach formulated by a group of Russian researchers concerning the correlation of competition and cooperation of states in the space sphere has significant methodological and ideological potential. Thus, they believe that "only a balance between competition and cooperation, which does not slow down or interfere with each other, can create the necessary and sufficient conditions for the sustainable development of international space activities. Cooperation, although it does not completely eliminate competition, nevertheless significantly reduces its negative consequences. Cooperation is also the most effective and rational way to reduce the risk of destabilizing proliferation of space technologies, which, as is known, are largely of a dual nature" ^{[24, p. 101]}.

Conclusion

Summing up the results of the study, we note that Western sanctions against Russian enterprises are aimed at undermining the development of high-tech industries, in particular the aerospace industry, which should lead to its degradation. In turn, scientific sanctions are aimed at excluding Russia from international space projects. It seems that there is a negative impact of sanctions on the national space industry. In addition, Russia's participation in international space projects has been damaged. Meanwhile, the sanctions regime in this area of international relations has been adjusted by some counter-sanctions imposed by Russia. Along with economic components, they also include scientific components. As a result of retaliatory measures, the parties that imposed sanctions (the EU and the US) suffer. In general, the combination of "sanctions – counter-sanctions" caused damage to the global sphere of space exploration and development (cancellation or postponement of projects on interplanetary missions to a more distant date). This is the difference from the damage caused by the curtailment of cooperation with Russia, for example, in the field of international climate projects. This is due to the fact that a large array of data on climate change is being collected on the territory of Russia. Without them, it is difficult to predict climate change on a global scale.

At the same time, anti-Russian sanctions have become a trigger for further fragmentation of international space cooperation in some of its areas, when the leading space powers seek to implement their projects. But at the same time, the preservation of certain elements of cooperation that were inherent in the Cold War era is noticeable. The insignificant nature of the negative consequences for the space industry and space science of Russia is determined by the multi-vector nature of its cooperation. In turn, the sanctions have led to active measures to implement Russia's national space program, as well as to strengthen international cooperation in areas not affected by the sanctions.