Short-term communication of the Central Bank of Chile: the role of narrative gaps in professional analysts' forecasting errors

Ivannikov Georgii Aleksandrovich ORCID: 0009-0007-3451-1430 Postgraduate student; Department of Economics and Finance; Moscow University of Finance and Law Chief Economist; Bank of Russia 109652, Russia, Moscow, Marino district, Porechnaya str., 13, room 1 ivannikovh@mail.ru

1. Introduction

Research in the field of central bank communications is gaining popularity. This is due to a number of factors. First, an increasing number of central banks are adopting an inflation targeting regime ^{[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 9]}, which implies openness and accountability in conducting monetary policy and achieving the declared quantitative inflation target. Secondly, central banks' communications as a tool of monetary policy are increasingly proving their effectiveness ^{[10, 11, 12]}. Thirdly, fiduciary financial systems cannot function adequately without the confidence of subjects in the stability of the national currency, which cannot be achieved without the use of communications by central banks.

The following terms are found in the works – short-run central bank communication and long-run central bank communication of central banks ^[13]. The first term implies the disclosure of views on the prospects of the economy and monetary policy, which have a significant impact on financial markets and expectations, including professional analysts. The momentum in the markets from short-term communications begins to materialize almost immediately, which often manifests itself in stock market quotes or surveys regarding expectations for the near future. The second type of communication is the disclosure of goals and strategies. In general, central bank communication is defined as providing information to the public on issues such as monetary policy goals and strategy, economic prospects, and future decisions. Communication is a key tool for managing market agents' expectations. ^{[14, 15, 16, 17]}. Special attention is paid to the short-term effects of central banks' communication, in particular their impact on market expectations in order to offset the volatility that may arise as a result of the implementation of certain shocks ^[18]. In this context, the question of the factors that shape the expectations of professional market participants in the short term, which are ultimately expressed in their forecasts, becomes relevant. ^{[19, 20, 21, 22, 23]}.

At the same time, there is still a debate in the scientific community about the expediency of greater openness of central banks. For example, a number of researchers argue that less transparency promotes flexibility in responding to unexpected events, more open internal debates, and minimizes disruptive reactions from financial markets ^{[24, 25]}. On the other hand, proponents of greater openness argue that transparency and regular explanatory work regarding decisions made make it possible to deal with economic shocks more effectively ^[26].

The key hypothesis of this work is that the central bank's communication and greater openness, in particular with professional analysts, can act as a rationalizing tool for influencing market expectations.

2. Literature review

The study of the role of short-term communications of central banks in the scientific literature currently has a solid history. Conceptually, it is possible to mention several research areas that raise the issue of the influence of signals on inflation expectations, analysts' forecasts, or financial markets.

The first of these areas is the study of the role of the independence of the central bank ^{[27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32]}. For example, back in the 1980s and 1990s, this topic was raised in the works of experts from developed and developing countries ^{[33, 34, 35]}. In modern practice, there is still an interest in assessing the independence of central banks. For example, during the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, special attention was paid to reducing the systemic risks of the financial sector in an environment where fiscal and macroprudential policies were softened to stimulate economic activity. Under these conditions, research has shown that the assessment of the central bank's independence by market participants played an important role. Calculations have shown that the perception of the central bank's policy as independent has a significant impact on financial stability. Stock market investors are more confident about the prospects for financial stability. The main methods of conducting research in this area include econometric modeling, the methodology of studying events ^[36], conducting surveys, building indices of the independence of central banks, etc.

The second area of research in the scientific literature, which highlights the aspect of short-term communications, is the study of transparency (transparency) of monetary authorities ^{[37, 38, 39, 40, 41]}. For example, back in the 1980s, a paper on the impact of "central bank secrecy" on the accuracy of forecasts by professional market participants raised the question of whether monetary authorities should increase the transparency of their work and more actively broadcast their position, primarily on monetary policy issues, in the public space ^[42]. The main round of attention to the topic of central bank communications occurred during the period when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand switched to inflation targeting, announced a public quantitative target for annual price growth and began publishing statements on the desired path of interest rates, or as they are also called "open mouth operations" ^[43]. Moreover, it is noted that retrospective data show that even before the practice of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, short-term communications were used in conducting monetary policy in other countries ^{[44, 45]}. If we turn to the works that have become fundamental for further research in the field of communications of central banks, then it is worth mentioning the work on the role of openness of monetary authorities ^[11]. The main argument is as follows: greater openness of the central bank reduces uncertainty in the financial market, and makes future decisions more transparent. This formulation has become the basis for many scientific papers devoted to the argumentation of the effectiveness of transparency of central banks. The main methods in these works include Bayesian methods in machine learning, measurement of forecast errors by analysts, regression analysis, etc.

Russian and foreign approaches, despite maintaining the general context of the discussion on the need for greater openness of central banks, differ somewhat from each other. The first difference is in terms of methodological tools. For example, foreign researchers are more actively using machine learning and unstructured data analysis methods (LLM analysis, tonality assessment) for a longer period of time (longitudinal studies), while domestic experts use more specialized indexes and regression analysis (readability index, BATI index) for a shorter period of time. The difference in the time period of communications research is explained by the fact that the Bank of Russia switched to the inflation targeting regime somewhat later than a number of central banks in developed countries. The second difference is the main focus of research. Thus, in foreign works, it is shifted to analyzing the reaction of financial markets (professional participants) in response to communications from central banks, and in Russian works to assessing the clarity of information policy for the population (the general public). Another difference is the geographical direction of research. While foreign scientists are increasingly paying attention to developing economies in their modern work, Russian experts are more focused on comparing domestic experience with the most developed countries.

Table 1. Comparison of foreign and domestic approaches in the study of communications of central banks

Source: compiled by the author

As a result of a comparative analysis of foreign and domestic approaches, it seems possible to conclude that promising areas for Russian research are:

1. Accumulation of a sufficient amount of temporary data. This will allow for further longitudinal analysis, which is the most powerful tool for understanding the evolution of central banks' communication strategies.

2. Integration of LLM methods for processing large amounts of text data, which are already actively used in world practice and open up new opportunities for analyzing the discourse of central banks with greater accuracy and depth.;

3. Expanding the geography of research towards emerging economies following global practice. This will significantly increase the potential for analyzing central banks' communications, taking into account other economic, cultural, linguistic, historical and other features.

3. Data and research methods

3.1. The average absolute error of professional analysts

The forecasts of professional analysts regarding interest rates and economic indicators can show how predictable the central bank's policy is. In the event that forecasts for the future trajectory of the key rate mostly come true, then monetary policy and the logic of decision-making by the central bank are predictable and understandable to professional analysts.

In general, inaccuracies and biases in forecasts are regularly encountered, which may be due to both objective factors, such as the institutional environment, and subjective ones, such as the personal experience of forecasters ^[46]. With this in mind, researchers use terms such as accuracy and analytical skill in their work. The first concept refers to the property of a real forecast, namely, how well it reflects the final result, and the second is a hidden feature that determines the degree of predictable differences in the accuracy of forecasters. In this study, the author uses the hypothesis of the immutability of analysts' skills as a basis for analysis, which is provided by averaging multiple ratings based on survey results and regular rotation of specific respondents.

To analyze the forecast errors of professional analysts, the work uses monthly data from the Economic Expectations Survey from January 2011 to January 2026 (181 observations) and actual data on economic indicators for the same period. Since 2000, it has been the practice of the Central Bank of Chile to conduct a survey of a select group of representatives of professional market participants, which include scientists, think tanks, pension fund managers, brokers, insurance company managers and heads of non-financial enterprises. The survey of economic expectations is conducted within 5 business days – it begins 3 days before the release of the consumer price index and ends 2 days after. Based on the survey results, forecast values of macroeconomic indicators for the short, medium and long term are compiled. From 50 to 55 respondents take part in the survey. The final value of the consensus forecast is the median between the experts' responses. In this work, the forecast and actual values were taken as variables.:

1) Monthly growth rates of consumer prices (;

2) The annual growth rate of consumer prices ();

3) The key rate;

4) The exchange rate of the peso to the US dollar (;

5) Monthly Business Activity Index (.

Two of the most popular metrics will be used to assess the accuracy of forecasts by professional analysts ^{[47, 48]}. The first is the value of the average absolute percentage error, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), which measures the deviation of forecasts by professional analysts from the actual values of indicators as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:

(1)

where n is the number of observed periods, is the actual value of the predicted variable at time t, and is the forecast of this variable by professional analysts at time t.

For each period, which in this case is one month, from January 2011 to January 2026 (181 observations), the relative error modulus is calculated. After that, the values are summed and divided by the number of periods to get the average value. The number is then expressed as a percentage.

The second metric is the value of the average absolute error – MAE (Mean Absolute Error), which is calculated using the formula:

(2)

where n is the number of observed periods, is the actual value of the predicted variable at time t, and is the forecast of this variable by professional analysts at time t.

The essence of the calculations in this case remains the same, but the result, unlike the first indicator, is expressed in units of measurement of the indicator itself.

The metric values for each variable predicted by professional analysts are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.

Table 2. Average absolute percentage error (MAPE) and average absolute error (MAE) of professional analysts for the period 2011-2026

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[49].

Figure 1. Average absolute percentage error of professional analysts for the period 2011-2026

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[49].

An important prerequisite in this analysis is the change in the number of meetings of the Board of Directors within one calendar year. From 2011 to 2018, meetings were held on a monthly basis (12 meetings per year), and from 2018 to 2026 – 8 meetings per year. It is important to consider this as a determinant of the frequency of short-term communications. After the reduction in the number of meetings, "quiet months" arose between the past and the upcoming meeting, within which internal and external factors continued to be implemented. For professional analysts, this premise is a complicating factor.

Based on the data in Table 1 and Figure 1, it can be seen that during the analyzed period, the dynamics of business activity remained the least predictable for professional analysts, on average, the forecast deviated from the fact by a little more than 70% over the entire period, which was primarily due to significant deviations in 2022-2025, and the most predictable variables were the peso exchange rate and the key rate.

Moreover, if we consider the value of the average absolute percentage error of professional analysts for different key rate trajectories, it becomes noticeable that during periods of tightening monetary conditions, the size of the error increased. This is typical, for example, for the period from February 2011 to July 2011, from October 2015 to January 2016, from October 2018 to February 2019 and July 2021 to November 2022. (Table 2). In general, a number of studies have shown that the decline in economic activity, which is a consequence of the tightening of monetary policy, increases uncertainty in the market, which is reflected, among other things, in the increase in the magnitude of analyst errors in forecasts. At the same time, the central bank's communication in these conditions should be aimed at reducing uncertainty by increasing its activity in explaining the logic of decisions.

With the easing of monetary conditions, the error rate of professional analysts decreases, while remaining higher than with a neutral policy. This indicates that there is room for improving the quality of short-term communications explaining the logic of the central bank's actions.

Table 3. Average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of professional analysts for the period 2011-2026

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[49].

To assess the effectiveness of short-term communications of the Central Bank of Chile, the key indicator in this work will be the accuracy of forecasts by professional analysts on the future trajectory of the key rate. The clearer the logic of monetary policy decision-making, the higher the predictability of short-term interest rates in the economy. The logic of decision-making by central banks adhering to the inflation targeting regime is explained in public materials (press releases, analytical notes, statements, interviews, etc.) available to a wide audience. Let us also turn to the magnitude of the difference (in percentage points) between the forecasts of professional analysts and the actual values of the key rate for the analyzed period.

Figure 2. Differences between analysts' forecasts and the actual trajectory of the key rate.

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[49].

Figure 2 shows that the analyzed period can be fragmented into 5 subperiods with different characteristics in terms of the accuracy of forecasts regarding the value of the key rate, the nature of monetary policy and the required type of communication (Table 3).

Table 4. Classification of subperiods by the nature of the PREP and predictability of the key rate trajectory for professional analysts

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[49].

This study assumes a hypothesis about the logic of the type of communication required from the central bank, which is determined by the relationship between its activity, which is expressed in a higher frequency of communications and in their increased volume, and the degree of clarity of the PREP for market participants. Therefore, the higher the uncertainty, the more actively communication should be built to eliminate the risks associated with a lack of understanding of the economic situation or further possible decisions by the monetary authorities. It is possible to present this logic in the following form:

(3)

where Fu is the completeness of communication, Fr is the frequency of communication, U is the level of uncertainty, and k is the coefficient of proportionality (sensitivity).

3.2. The Taylor Rule and the optimal size of the key bet

In order to exclude from the study the likelihood of errors by professional analysts due to the excessive reaction of the Central Bank of Chile in conducting monetary policy, we will determine the optimal level of the key rate by creating a model based on the Taylor rule equation ^[50]. The Taylor rule allows us to formally determine the required level of the central bank's nominal interest rate at a given level of inflation and the output gap (the gap between achieved and potential GDP). The model will be presented in a standard form.:

(4)

where is the recommended nominal key rate, is the actual inflation in the current period, is the equilibrium real interest rate (neutral rate), is the target inflation rate, is the actual volume of output (real GDP), is the potential volume of GDP; is the inflation response coefficient (0.5), and is the output gap response coefficient (0.5).

Figure 3. The trajectory of the key rate

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^{[51, 52, 53]}.

For the analysis, data from January 2015 to December 2025 will be taken from reports from the Central Bank of Chile, the OECD and the IMF.

It follows from the presented data that, in general, over a given period, the forecasts of professional analysts and the actual level of the key rate correlated quite closely with the values of the Taylor rule model. Moreover, the forecasts of professional market participants are to a greater extent than the actual key rate, which is confirmed by the value of the Pearson correlation coefficient. It is equal to 0.7780 for the recommended key rate and forecasts of professional analysts, and 0.7252 for the recommended and actual key rate. Moreover, within this period, the differences between the two variables – the forecasts of the rate and its actual value are minimal, which suggests that, in general, the communication of the central bank of Chile allows us to predict decisions in the field of PREP.

Table 5. Adherence of the key rate and analysts' forecasts to the Taylor rule

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[49].

3.3. Clarity of communication and narrative gaps

The Automated Readability Index will be used to analyze the clarity of regular communications of the Central Bank of Chile for professional analysts. ARI – evaluates the difficulty of understanding texts based on the average length of a word in syllables or characters and the average length of sentences in words. The indicator is calculated using the formula:

(4)

When assessing clarity for the general public, it is generally accepted that index values that are below 12 are accessible to the majority of the population. In this case, it takes less than 10 years of study to fully understand the content of the text. To calculate the indicator, 100 press releases of the Central Bank of Chile were taken based on the results of the key rate decision in the period from January 2015 to January 2026. English was designated as the working language. The coefficients in the formula are selected specifically for him.

The readability of the press releases of the Central Bank of Chile as a key tool for short-term communications shows an upward trend. Despite the volatility of the indicator, the trend towards increasing the accessibility of texts is quite pronounced. It is especially important that after reducing the frequency of meetings of the Board of Directors for making decisions on the key rate from 12 to 8 per year in 2018, the volume of press releases was tripled. If before 2018 the material consisted of an average of 221 words, then after 2018 it already included an average of 698 words.

Figure 4. Automated index of readability of press releases of the Central Bank of Chile.

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[54].

Further, 40 press releases (8 publications per year for 5 years) were selected to determine the content of the materials during the period of the largest gap between the forecasts of professional analysts and the actual trajectory of the key rate. The next stage is the tokenization of the text array, that is, the breakdown into separate words and phrases. The official parts of speech that do not carry a semantic load (stop-word removal) were excluded from the collected array. Further, the words were reduced to their basic form in order to preserve the possibility of taking into account different forms of one word as a single semantic unit (stemming). Also, in order to be able to analyze changes in prevailing contextual narratives, it is necessary to exclude "instrumental terms" that are found in any texts related to monetary policy. They describe the procedural content, which, regardless of the economic context, remains unchanged. In this case, you should not pay attention to these terms in the analysis. For this purpose, a pool of instrumental terms (domain-specific filtering) was compiled, typical of the press releases of the Central Bank of Chile through a preliminary text analysis. For example, the list of words not taken into account includes "rate", "key rate", "monetary policy", "board of directors", "meeting" and so on.

Studying the content of the central bank's short-term communications through text analysis of press releases also implied the use of one of the most popular analysis methods – "bag-of-words". It consists in ignoring the word order. The frequency of their mention is taken as a basis. The essence of the method is to create a dictionary, that is, a text array previously cleared of "instrumental words", prepositions and other constructions that do not carry economic content. Then each text document is represented by a vector, that is, a numeric array, the length of which is equal to the size of the dictionary. This vector is filled by placing numbers at the position of words, depending on the frequency of their occurrence in the text array. Also, to clarify the results of the analysis, the collocation analysis method was applied, that is, the definition of stable phrases. As a result, the following text array of "non-instrumental terms" was obtained, broken down by topic:

Table 6. Array of "non-instrumental terms" and topics in the press releases of the Central Bank of Chile from January 2015 to January 2026

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[54].

An analysis of the text array of "non-instrumental terms" of press releases for the specified period showed 8 main thematic narratives that formed the vector of short-term communications of the central bank. For the most objective reflection of the dominant narrative trends, taking into account the significant changes in the volume of the text after 2018, it is necessary to determine the weights of each term in the total volume of published information. For this purpose, each term was assigned a weighting factor depending on the share it occupies in the total volume of words in the text, including instrumental terms. This approach takes into account the hypothesis of content dispersion in a common text array. If technical information prevails in the press release, the contextual economic content is dispersed and the effect of the central bank's signal is reduced.

Figure 5. Narratives in the press releases of the Central Bank of Chile.

Source: the author's calculations based on materials ^[54].

The monthly reports and forecasts of professional analysts in this time period were analyzed in a similar way. The sample includes reports from consulting companies, independent research centers, and individual analysts.

Figures 6-12. Narrative communication gaps of the Central Bank of Chile.

Source: author's calculations based on the materials ^{[54, 55, 56, 57]}.

To analyze the relationship between the errors of professional analysts and narrative gaps, we will use the first difference estimators (FD) method, which is used in fixed-effect regression models. This is necessary to exclude biased regression estimates and false correlation (spurious regression) in the framework of the study. The results allow us to express the gaps in the narratives of short-term communication between the Central Bank of Chile and professional analysts.

Figure 13. Narrative gaps in communication between the Central Bank of Chile and the assessment of the situation by professional analysts (deviation upward from 0 on the Y axis – the Central Bank of Chile attaches more importance to the factor than professional analysts; deviation downward on the Y axis – professional analysts attach more importance to the factor than the Central Bank of Chile)

Source: the author's calculations based on the materials ^{[54, 55, 56, 57]}.

In order to analyze the possible relationship between the errors of professional analysts and narrative gaps in short-term communication, a regression analysis was conducted.:

(5)

where is the average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of professional analysts on date t; – narrative gaps on date t; – coefficients.

Each of the types of factors was considered separately.

For the analysis, the appropriate level of statistical significance (probability value) of the Pearson correlation coefficient was determined using the Student's t-test with an acceptable probability of error () equal to 0.05 (95% confidence interval). Given that the number of observations (n) is 40, the critical value of the Pearson correlation coefficient is approximately 0.314. In this case, these values will act as a threshold when determining a possible correlation between variables. Based on the results of the construction of the correlation matrix, the following statistically significant positive relationships were identified between the error rate of professional analysts and the narrative gaps in short-term communications of the central bank (Table 4):

Table 7. Assessment of the impact of narrative gaps in short–term communication in the forecast errors of professional analysts (January 2021 - December 2025).

Note: The table shows the values of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Levels of significance: * 𝑝 <0,1, ** 𝑝 <0,05, ***𝑝 <0,01.

Source: author's calculations based on the materials ^{[54, 55, 56, 57]}.

4. Conclusions and recommendations

The conducted research allows us to draw a number of conclusions:

First, the logic of the Central Bank of Chile's decisions in the field of PREP is generally predictable for professional analysts. This was confirmed by applying the Taylor rule model and conducting a correlation analysis between the actual trajectory of the key rate and consensus forecasts for its change. For the recommended key rate and forecasts of professional analysts, the Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.7780, and for the recommended and actual key rates it is 0.7252. At the same time, periods with less predictability of PREP decisions were identified at certain time intervals (the most noticeable was from July 2021 to December 2025);

Secondly, errors in forecasts by professional analysts increase with tightening (the value of the average absolute percentage error in forecasts is 9.26%) or mitigation (the value of the average absolute percentage error in forecasts is 4.71%) of the PREP and are associated with the rate of increase or decrease in the key rate, which was confirmed by the use of quantitative metrics for the time period from January 2011 to January 2026;

Thirdly, the use of the method of constructing vectors of the frequency of mentioning "non-instrumental terms" allowed the press releases of the Central Bank of Chile to identify 8 main thematic narratives (inflation, business activity, exchange rate, foreign market, lending, COVID) in the period of the least predictability of decisions for professional analysts (from January 2021 to December 2025).-19, uncertainty and demand);

Fourth, the narrative gaps in the communication of the Central Bank of Chile contribute to the errors of professional analysts. The regression analysis study revealed a positive statistically significant relationship between the value of the average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of professional analysts and the narrative gaps in short–term communication of the Central Bank of Chile during the period of least predictability of key rate changes (July 2021 - December 2025) according to the metrics "Uncertainty", "Inflation", "Business activity", "Demand" and the magnitude of analysts' errors in forecasting the annual inflation rate. It is also important to note that in further studies, with an increase in the observation period (a larger sample), it is possible to confirm a positive statistically significant correlation between narrative gaps in the metrics of "Demand" and forecasts for the key rate, as well as "Uncertainty" and forecasts of business activity.;

Fifth, in the presence of periods with low predictability of decisions in the field of PREP, the clarity of the materials of the Central Bank of Chile as a whole has increased markedly. The application of the Automated Readability Index to press releases over a 10-year period revealed a decrease in the level of required education to fully understand PREP materials (the index value decreased from 13.55 points to 10.85 points).

Based on the conducted research, it is possible to identify the following recommendations to increase the predictability of central bank decisions and clarity of short-term communications:

- determination of narrative gaps in short-term communication using the method tested in this work for constructing vectors of the frequency of mentioning "non-instrumental terms". To do this, it is necessary to constantly create a database of relevant materials from the professional analytical community and compare the contents of the central bank's press releases with them. If narrative gaps are identified, additional analysis of the reasons for the asymmetric attention of the professional community and the central bank to a certain list of factors will be required. If necessary, it is possible to change the central bank's emphasis in press releases in order to reorient analysts' attention to those factors that, according to the results of the analysis, are underestimated for some reason.;

- the development of the practice of using additional measures explaining the logic of the central bank aimed at promptly stopping "information voids" in cases of unforeseen economic events that significantly complicate the forecasting process for professional analysts. To this end, it is necessary to hold, among other things, extraordinary face-to-face and online meetings of representatives of the professional analytical community with experts from the central bank, where assessments on the current economic agenda will be exchanged.;

- the use of enhanced short-term communication when tightening or easing monetary policy by issuing additional text comments, industry and regional reviews on the official website, as well as increasing the frequency of interviews with the central bank's leadership in leading economic media.

5. The increment of scientific knowledge

The results of the work complement the practice of using tools in scientific research to identify narrative gaps in central bank communication. It is important that the tools used in similar works were used to analyze the surprises of PREP for the media ^[64]. The results of this study demonstrate the relevance of this practice in a new area – the analysis of the role of narrative gaps in the forecast errors of professional analysts.

The work also expands the practice of conducting Russian research on the topic of studying communications of central banks in three relevant aspects outlined above when conducting a comparative analysis with foreign experience.:

- in terms of longitudinal studies (studies using long time data). The work used a 14-year time series;

- in terms of studying the experience of developing countries, which include the Republic of Chile;

- in terms of using analysis tools for extensive unstructured text arrays, which include the assessment of narrative gaps by constructing vectors of the frequency of mentioning "non-instrumental terms".

6. Application of the research results in domestic practice

The study of the current experience of the Central Bank of Chile in conducting communication with professional analysts, as well as the tools for monitoring narrative gaps in communication tested in this study, allowed us to identify relevant recommendations that would be advisable to consider for application in domestic practice.:

- conducting surveys of professional analysts regarding their forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables on a monthly basis (at the moment, the Bank of Russia is conducting a survey of analysts in annual terms, asking them to indicate values in 1, 2 and 3 years). This would make it possible to form a detailed database of forecast values and thus study in more detail the fluctuations in the expectations of professional analysts by analogy with the experience of the Central Bank of Chile.;

- given the widespread practice of holding regular meetings of Bank of Russia experts with representatives of the professional analytical community, the ability to pre-identify narrative gaps in the assessment of individual economic factors will make it possible to further highlight these issues when exchanging assessments at joint events and thereby increase the predictability of decisions in the field of PREP (including reducing the magnitude of errors by professional analysts when forecasting major macroeconomic variables);

- identifying the asymmetry in the focus of attention of professional analysts and the Bank of Russia will make it possible to supplement the materials of the mega-regulator on the current and projected economic situation in terms of factors of the greatest interest to the professional community, and thereby increase the interest of analysts in them. This, in turn, will increase the degree of confidence in the Bank of Russia from the analytical community.

The article is published in its final version as approved following the last positive peer review recommending acceptance for publication. It incorporates revisions made by the author in response to prior negative peer review reports that did not recommend publication. All peer review reports, including initial negative reviews, are published in open access alongside the article. All versions of the author’s revisions are archived in the publisher’s repository and may be made available upon reasonable request in accordance with Elsevier’s editorial policies and applicable data availability requirements.
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