Strategic planning as an element of management of the development of the pension system of the Russian Federation

Kovalev Vladislav Alekseevich ORCID: 0009-0000-2110-6400 Student; Chair of Public Finance; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., Moscow, 125167, Russia kovalevdocs@mail.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

The relevance of the study is due to the need to use a strategic approach in managing the development of the pension system, which will ensure its financial stability and efficiency for the long term in difficult economic and social conditions: the aging of the population, the global increase in government spending on social policy, volatility and bubbles in financial markets, the economy's need for long-term investments, the introduction of external restrictions, the deglobalization of the global economy, tightening monetary policy and a difficult balance between increasing the level of pension provision and maintaining the current burden on economic agents to pay mandatory payments. The identification of problems in the organization of strategic planning for the development of the pension system is necessary to increase the level and effectiveness of pension provision for citizens with different incomes and types of employment, to ensure the sustainable development of the pension system in the long term in a forced manner in an integral and effective strategic planning system based on foresight and qualitative forecasting.

Organization of strategic planning for the development of the national pension system

The key document of strategic planning in the field of pension provision is the Strategy for the Long–term Development of the Pension System of the Russian Federation until 2030 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy), approved on December 25, 2012, one and a half years before the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ dated July 28, 2014 "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation" (hereinafter referred to as FZ No. 172), laying down the strategic planning system in the Russian Federation, the composition of its documents together with the procedure for monitoring and monitoring the implementation of their provisions, which, in 2021, including in order to ensure coordination of strategic planning, was supplemented by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 633 dated November 8, 2021 "On Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the field of strategic Planning in the Russian Federation" (hereinafter – Presidential Decree No. 633). The Strategy was approved in accordance with Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 597 dated May 7, 2012 "On measures to implement State social policy", signed shortly after the start of the next presidential term and setting one of the tasks of the Government of the Russian Federation to develop a Strategy for the long-term development of the pension system, providing mechanisms to increase the level of pension provision in case of delayed retirement and determination of measures to ensure the safety of pension savings and profitability from their placement. In more detail, the outline of strategic documents that determine the context of Strategy development is shown in Table 1. In general, the Strategy was integrated into the strategic planning system regulated by Federal Law No. 115-FZ of July 20, 1995 "On State Forecasting and Programs for Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation" and in force before the adoption of Federal Law No. 172.

Table 1 – Decomposition of strategic documents at the time of Strategy approval

Source: compiled by the author according to the preamble of the Strategy.

The budget messages set and specified the task for the Government of the Russian Federation to develop a Strategy, and the main expected results of its implementation were transferred from the Concept of Long-term Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 (Table 2).

Table 2 – Content of strategic planning documents in the context of Strategy development and approval

Source: compiled by the author according to the contents of the strategic planning documents given in the first column of the table.

At the same time, Federal Law No. 172 established a new strategic planning system in the Russian Federation, the classification and procedure for correcting its documents, and by January 1, 2019, all existing documents had to be brought into line with Federal Law No. 172.

Also, on May 7, 2018, national goals and strategic objectives for the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 were defined, on July 21, 2020 – national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 (not valid), on May 7, 2024 – national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036, which are new documents of strategic goal-setting at the federal level and guidelines for approving goals, objectives and indicators for strategic planning documents developed within the framework of goal–setting according to the sectoral principle, and for program and planning documents developed for the term of office of the President of the Russian Federation - the strategic planning cycle. Despite a significant change in the strategic planning system, the Strategy has retained and retains the status of an effective regulatory legal act, however, changes justified by the adoption of Federal Law No. 172, Presidential Decree No. 633 or the approval of national development goals have not been introduced into the Strategy. In the system of strategic planning documents, according to the register of the state automated information system "Management" ^[1], it is classified as industry documents of the federal level.

To determine the role of Strategy in the development of the pension system, the author selected and analyzed strategic planning documents, with the exception of the Strategy, whose individual goals, objectives, directions and provisions most correspond to the subject of the development of the pension system and collectively create a system of strategic management of it (Table 4). According to the results of the analysis of the content of the documents (table 3)– several fundamental points were identified.

Table 3 – Content of strategic planning documents regarding the development of the pension system

Source: compiled by the author according to the sources given in the first column of the table.

Firstly, the only national development goal of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024, which is directly related to the sphere of pension provision, was to ensure the growth of the pension provision level above the inflation rate. Despite the non–detailed and broad wording (it is possible to include both compulsory pension insurance (hereinafter – OPS) and state pension provision and non-state pension provision (hereinafter - NGO) in pension provision, it is not determined how specifically the increase in the level of pension provision should exceed the inflation rate), the goal assumed a sustainable a real increase in the incomes of retired people, an increase in their purchasing power at any rate of inflation, which simultaneously contributed to the national goal of halving the poverty level in the elderly. The unified plan for achieving the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 and for the planning period up to 2030 and the Main Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024, the national goal was interpreted as follows: the indexation of the old-age insurance pension, to a value determined by actual capabilities, but above inflation, should be provided only to the unemployed pensioners. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the national goals were adjusted while postponing their achievement to 2030: the required increase in the level of pension provision was changed from "above inflation" to "not below inflation". This approach allows for the absence of a significant increase in the real size of the insurance pension and, at best, the immutability of the purchasing power of the recipients of the insurance pension for 10 years.

In planning and programming documents, the goal is a growth rate above inflation, in the Budget Forecast of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2036 – not below inflation, but achieving the above-mentioned national goal, both in the format before and after adjustment, is set as a priority for the Government of the Russian Federation in the field of pension provision in both cases.

Table 4 – Strategic planning documents regarding the development of the pension system

Source: compiled by the author.

Secondly, the directions and tasks in the field of pension provision outlined in the sectoral strategic planning documents are directly or indirectly referred to the directions and tasks of the Strategy. In general, the industry documents are interconnected and coordinated with each other.

Thirdly, the documents regarding forecasting, due to the date of their adoption and the lack of adjustments, contain outdated terminology and reflect the irrelevant composition of the budget system of the Russian Federation. Thus, the Forecast of the long-term socio–economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 ^[2] (hereinafter referred to as the Forecast SIR-2030) describes the division of a labor pension into basic, insurance and accumulative components (since 2015, pensions under OPS have no components) and does not take into account the termination of existence as well as the Pension Fund of Russia (further – the FIU), and its budget. Formally, the forecast of the FIU budget parameters cannot be used for goal setting and planning and compared with data from other strategic forecasting documents, since any financial receipts and payments under the OPS should be predicted in the context of the budget of the Social Fund of Russia (hereinafter – the SFR). The budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2036 (hereinafter referred to as the Budget Forecast), approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 558-r dated 03/29/2019, also does not take into account the merger of the FIU and the Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation and the refusal to introduce individual pension capital.

We also note the inconsistency of the Forecast of the SIR-2030 and the Budget forecast in terms of the parameters of the budget of the FIU (Table 5), especially for the period after 2020.

Table 5 – Comparison of the Forecast SIR-2030 and the Budget forecast in terms of the parameters of the budget of the FIU

Source: compiled by the author according to the SIR-2030 Forecast ^[2] and the Budget Forecast.

Taking into account the importance of achieving the reliability of indicators of strategic planning documents in terms of forecasting, which are the main one for the development of other types of strategic documents, including Strategies, and the use of Budget forecasts to determine the resource provision for the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation, we note the problem of the relevance of forecast values used to develop strategic documents in the field of pension provision.

Fourthly, a critical drawback of the current content of the Budget Forecast is the reflection of the forecast indicators of financial support for the implementation of the state program (hereinafter – GP) of the Russian Federation "Development of the pension system", the implementation of which, according to the Budget Forecast approved in 2019, was supposed to begin in 2020: budget allocations of the federal budget were provided for this from 2.8 trillion rubles in 2020 to 2.6 trillion rubles in 2024. Despite the planned start of the implementation of the SOE in the next financial year, it was not approved, and Federal Law No. 380-FZ dated December 02, 2019 "On the Federal Budget for 2020 and for the planning period of 2021 and 2022" was adopted with the distribution until 2022 of the overwhelming amount of budget allocations for pension provision under OPS The non-programmatic area of activity is 71 "Development of the pension system of the Russian Federation", which does not imply reflection of budget allocations for a particular SOE. The program-targeted management of budget expenditures of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation in terms of the development of the pension system has not been implemented so far, the deadline for the development of the corresponding SOE is set by separate decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation ^{[3] [4]} and is not observed ^[5], which calls into question the foresight of state policy, the role of strategic documents in the development of the national pension system and it contradicts the legal norm FZ-172 on the implementation of the provisions of strategic planning documents through the activities of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. We note the fact that the Government of the Russian Federation has made a decision on the expediency of approving a state pension scheme for the development of the pension system, which we will confirm with several arguments: (1) a large volume of federal budget expenditures in a non–programmatic area of activity (Figure – 1), which in 2017 reached up to 25.29% of all federal budget expenditures for the fiscal year, (2) a significant volume of budget expenditures of the SFR (formerly the FIU) in terms of OPS, in 2023 reached 9.06 trillion rubles or 6.52% of GDP ^[6], (3) the presence of strategic goals for the development of the pension system and the special social importance of achieving them, which fit into the framework of the development of programming documents and program-targeted expenditure management by the budget of the budgetary system and (4) the expected increase in the efficiency of federal budget and SFR budget expenditures on pension provision of citizens during the as a result implementation of a programmatic approach.

Figure 1 – Federal budget expenditures on the non-programmatic activity "Development of the pension system"

Source: built by the author. Data for 2014-2020 are provided according to reports on the execution of the federal budget of the Federal Treasury ^[7], for 2021-2022 – according to the information of the Unified Portal of the Budget System of the Russian Federation ^[8].

The Strategy itself consists of the following elements: (1) a retrospective describing the results achieved over 10 years of improving the pension system, (2) negative consequences expected in the absence of active and strategic management of pension provision development, (3) goals and objectives of the pension system development, (4) 7 directions of its development, (5) the stages of the Strategy's implementation and (6) the expected results of its implementation by 2030. It is supplemented by a schedule for the preparation of draft federal laws for the implementation of a strategic document for the medium term until October 2019 - the schedule was the only one, for the entire duration of the Strategy, the object of making changes to it related to supplementing the plan, including or excluding additional positions in it, and the goals, objectives or directions of the Strategy were never they have been adjusted to the present moment.

The strategy does not contain a set of quantitative or qualitative indicators of its implementation, in addition to the expected results at the end of its implementation period, an assessment of the risks of its implementation, as, for example, in the sectoral strategic planning document – the Strategy for the Development of the Financial market of the Russian Federation until 2030, and an action plan for the medium term, which would justify the composition and content of government programs which is also a selective element of the sectoral strategic planning document in accordance with the rules for their development and adjustment, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 29.10.2015 No. 1162 "On Approval of the Rules for the Development, Adjustment, Monitoring and Control of the implementation of sectoral strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation on issues under the jurisdiction of the Government of the Russian Federation".

The top-level goal of the Strategy, correlated with the tasks, directions and development tools in table 6, is to guarantee a socially acceptable level of pension provision in conditions of balance and long-term financial stability of the pension system.

Table 6 – The main provisions of the Strategy

Source: compiled by the author on Strategy.

Other decompositions of the main ideas of the Strategy have been proposed in the Russian literature ^{[9] [11]}, however, the differences between them are not of fundamental importance. When considering the tasks of the Strategy, we immediately note the use of an outdated terminological apparatus ("labor pension"), which Balynin I.V. also writes about ^[12]. In further analysis, such units will be brought to modern ones ("labor pension" to "insurance pension", "budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation" to "budget of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation in terms of pension provision").

It should be noted that the goals and objectives of the Strategy are not directly referred to the national development goals of the Russian Federation, including ensuring the rate of sustainable growth of the pension provision level not below inflation (Table 7), and the provisions of the Strategy are not included in one or another GP, with the exception of the GP of the Russian Federation "Social Support of Citizens", in within the framework of which the MBT is carried out from the federal budget for the provision of federal and regional social supplements to insurance pensions, and SOEs of the subjects of the Russian Federation, within which budgetary allocations of their budgets for the payment of social supplements are provided. Thus, in the field of pension system development, sectoral strategic planning documents are not linked to medium-term goal-setting documents.

Table 7 – Comparison of strategic planning documents in terms of pension provision for citizens

Source: compiled by the author

Achieving the ratio of the average size of the insurance pension to the pensioner's subsistence minimum (hereinafter referred to as PMP) by 2.5–3 times, which is one of the expected results of the Strategy implementation, is lower than the expected value of this indicator in the conservative and innovative versions of the Forecast SIR-2030 (Table - 8).

A value of 2.7, which is included in the target range, is expected only in the accelerated version of the forecast, assuming high wage growth rates, reaching the number of the middle class in half of the entire population and reducing income differentiation. At the same time, there is no direct justification for setting the values of the targets in the Strategy. The amount of the insurance pension, in order to achieve the goal in relation to the PMP by 2.5-3 times, should be greater than (in 2024 – by 9% and 31%), according to the replacement coefficient (Table 9).

Table 8 – Comparison of the expected value of the ratio in the Strategy and SIR-2030

Source: compiled by the author on the Strategy and SIR-2030 ^[2].

The target replacement rate is set at the level required by ILO Convention No. 102, however, the typical beneficiary is not an insured person, but a household consisting of a man with a wife of retirement age, and is lower than the average replacement rate in European countries both at the end of 2017 (0.57) and 2022 (0.53) ^{[13] [14]}. According to Abramov A.E. and Chernova M. I., the coefficient established by the ILO does not correspond to the modern economy: it is formed in an individual value for each person, and the rationality of the saving behavior of the population and the ability of the financial system to ensure the growth of its well-being in the context of the theory of the life cycle should come first ^[15].

Table 9 – Ratio of Strategy targets

Source: calculated and compiled by the author.

Note: KZ is the replacement coefficient, PMP is the living wage of a pensioner, NWP is the average salary.

We agree with the authors' opinion that there is a problem of the lack of clear criteria for evaluating the implementation of both the goals of the Strategy and its tasks, which are not specified in other planning or programming documents ^[9].

Thus, in the course of our research, we identified a number of inconsistencies between the Strategy and strategic planning documents in terms of goal setting, forecasting and programming, as well as outdated terminology of the Strategy, blurred indicators and lack of risk assessment of its implementation.

Improving strategic planning for the development of the pension system of the Russian Federation

To ensure the strategic development of the pension system of the Russian Federation, we need to define long-term guidelines for the development of the domestic pension system, which will increase its efficiency and financial stability, and the principles of organizing strategic management of the pension system development, which will ensure high efficiency of such management.

According to the author, the content of strategic planning documents regarding the development of the national pension system should be based on several principles, including those defined by Federal Law No. 172 "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation".

Firstly, optimal relevance is needed, which means that the provisions of the strategic document correspond to the realities of the modern economy, the structure of the pension system and the parameters characterizing its functioning. Taking into account the principle of continuity and continuity established by law, which establishes that strategic planning documents are developed taking into account the stages of their implementation and the results of the implementation of previously adopted documents, the development of a new long-term plan is premature. At the same time, adjusting the Strategy in order to eliminate, at least, the problem of irrelevant terminology, according to the author, is advisable and possible, especially in the context of the beginning of a new strategic planning cycle in 2024.

Secondly, the mandatory validity of the risk assessment during the implementation of the plan is required, taking into account the data of the budget forecast and the forecast of the SIR, which gives an idea of the potential deviation of actual indicators from the targets and actions of the Government of the Russian Federation in the event of the implementation of the identified risks.

Thirdly, it is important to provide for the presence of internal stabilizers - fixing the parameters of pension provision (for example, retirement age, the procedure for increasing the size of the old–age social pension, the marginal base for taxation of SV, indexation of the cost of IPK and the amount of a fixed payment to an insurance pension), conditions and mechanisms for their changes for a long-term period, if their operational, "manual" changes only as a response to exceptional shocks and changes in macroeconomic indicators – consistent application of indexation rules is the key to strengthening confidence in pension provision ^[17].

Fourth, the interconnection of the long-term goals of the Strategy with medium-term goals (national development goals of the Russian Federation), plans for legislative activity and the main areas of activity of the Government of the Russian Federation and responsible federal executive authorities, comprehensive interdepartmental plans.

According to the author, it is important to ensure program-oriented management of budget expenditures of the budgetary system for pension provision, which is characterized by a different methodology for budget planning and evaluating the effectiveness of budget expenditures, and the implementation of budget policy, taking into account the need to achieve the goals of the Strategy.

The author considers it necessary to provide, by analogy with other strategic planning documents, a step-by-step breakdown of the values of indicators for the implementation of the Strategy, balanced in terms of timing and scope of activities and tasks, in order to monitor its implementation and take action in case of deviations from the failure to achieve the target values at any stage, as well as to include in the indicators the level of poverty among the disabled and the elderly population.

According to the author, it is advisable in the Strategy to provide for an explicit restriction on the introduction of new tax benefits and regimes and the expansion of current ones affecting the OPS system, only if this is not done in order to encourage citizens to participate in NGOs and form long-term savings.

Let's highlight the guidelines for the structure and composition of the pension system of the Russian Federation: social pensions in the Strategy are not allocated to a separate level (recall that the main task of basic pensions at the zero component in the World Bank approach and the first level of the pension system in the OECD approach is the fight against poverty). They are appointed for life, regardless of the length of insurance and the amount of pension rights, 5 years after retirement on an old-age insurance pension in the absence of the right to receive an insurance pension, and are indexed annually taking into account the growth rate of the pension fund. The level of material security of the recipient of a social pension in combination with a social supplement reaches the PMP (federal or regional). The World Bank recommends ensuring the presence of a zero component in any comprehensive pension system in order to alleviate the problem of poverty of the elderly population ^[18]. Indeed, given the absence of a steady decline in the number of poor people in the older age group and the category of unemployed pensioners and recipients of social pensions (Figure 2), there are no prerequisites for the abolition of social pensions.

Figure 2 – Poor population, as a percentage of the total surveyed population

Source: built by the author according to Rosstat data ^[19].

In 2024, according to the forecast data of the Accounting Chamber of the Russian Federation and author's calculations ^[20], the PMP will amount to 16.5% of the NWF and increase to 17.5% in 2026, which is lower than the average ratio of basic pensions at the place of residence and target pensions to the average level of earnings in OECD countries (20.9% and 19.3%, respectively) in 2022 ^[17]. Taking into account the fact that the number of pensioners receiving social surcharges reached 6.24 million rubles in 2023. or 18.23% of all pensioners receiving an old–age insurance pension (Figure 3), and in the conditions of an intermittent and non-standard career of current and future employees ^[21], the preservation of this level of the pension system is necessary and in the long term its development is advisable to ensure through the introduction of a need assessment in the case of social pensions and an expanded need check in in the case of social supplements to the pension, since their payment is carried out through a budgetary mechanism. At the same time, the number of recipients of social pensions and social surcharges, when indexing PMP social pensions to the inflation rate, according to the author, should be indicators of the preservation of the OPS of its insurance function, which should signal an increase in the share of budget allocations in pension provision within the OPS, which is dangerous for the financial balance of the pension system. We propose to set the poverty level among the elderly and disabled population, including pensioners, as an indicator of the implementation of the Strategy, as it is influenced not only by bringing the minimum pension amount to the pension fund, but also by the indexation of the pension fund and the composition of households.

Figure 3 – The number of pensioners receiving social surcharges, million people.

Source: built by the author according to Rosstat data ^[22].

The second level of the pension system, according to the OECD taxonomy of mandatory pension plans based on earnings, in the Russian Federation is represented directly by the OPS, a distribution system with "pension points". There is no question of the need for such a level – OPS provides a wide coverage of the population, a high level of collection of CB and KZ from 30% with standard insurance experience and income, and in OECD countries only Ireland and New Zealand do not have a second level of the pension system ^[17]. According to the author, it is necessary, focusing on long-term trends, to clarify the boundary between the second and third levels and the ratio in population coverage between them, as well as the financial models of pension plans used.

According to the author's calculations, the demographic load factor (excluding the population under the age of able-bodied), which is a factor in the effectiveness of PAYG systems, increases over the next 20 years, but does not pose a threat to the financial stability of the Russian pension system: it will decrease from 429.61 in 2023 to, according to Rosstat, 337-380 in 2030 (if this will increase in 2046 to 461-514) ^[16]. At the same time, the OPS has reserves for the growth of its income and income reduction: until 2028, the retirement age will continue to increase, and until 2025, an increase in the minimum number of IPCs to qualify for an insurance pension, and researchers propose an increase in the required insurance length of service, the abolition or revision of regression in taxation, the abolition or reduction of tax benefits, a significant an increase in the marginal base while maintaining a limit on the number of pension rights generated per year ^{[10] [11]} – they can be used both to maintain financial stability and to achieve the required short-term limit of 40%, but they are not capable of multiplying or significantly exceeding the expected result of implementing the Strategy, increasing the level of pension provision. The objectives of the Strategy and the current restriction on the amount of pension rights formed annually, in 10 individual pension coefficients (hereinafter – IPK), suggest: insured persons with earnings of no more than NWP should focus on 40% replacement of lost income, and the amount of all other social risk of loss of earnings due to old age is privatized, and should be covered for the account of private corporate and individual schemes. Does this mean that the target values of the size of the insurance pension are not only benchmarks for achieving them, but also restrictions that establish the optimal share of the distributive component of the pension system, after which it should not be increased in order to prevent a threat to its financial stability and provide incentives for private funded pension schemes?

The results of modeling the pension system indicate that higher volatility and a decrease in the rate of return of the capital market increase the optimal share of the distributive component, whereas a decrease in output volatility reduces it, and the first dependence is stronger than the second ^[23].

The effectiveness of the OPS is limited: according to the author's calculations, with an insurance record of 20 years, the income of the insured person in the amount of the NWP and a life span of 20 years, the amount paid in his favor is 10 times higher than the amount of the pension paid for 20 years (Figure 4). At the same time, an increase in insurance experience for 1 year increases this gap by an average of 1.45%, an increase in income taxable by 5 thousand – by an average of 1.04%, and a decrease in insurance experience for 1 year reduces the KZ by an average of 1.86%. With this in mind, we do not consider the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the level of pension provision within the framework of the OPS to be optimal and expedient from the point of view of efficiency.

Figure 4 – The ratio of the benefits paid in favor of the person and the amount of the insurance pension for 20 years with different insurance experience

Source: built according to the calculations of the author.

In the medium and long term, parametric changes in the OPS should exclude an increase in CB tariffs and be focused not on increasing the volume of pension rights and a forced increase in the size of the insurance pension, but on maintaining a relatively wide coverage of the population, completely leveling the need to use the budget mechanism (with the exception of social pensions) and maintaining the financial stability of the pension system in conditions of increasing demographic the burden and potential external and internal adverse factors or shocks that do not lead to an increase in the role of the distributive component – stimulating public participation in voluntary pension plans is due to the adequacy of pension payments under mandatory plans ^[24], and due to the large difference between the expected financial return and the expected population growth rates, benefits for public welfare from participation in the optimal cumulative plan is significantly more than from participation in the optimal distribution scheme ^[25]. Thus, the development of the second and third levels of the pension system, corporate and individual pension provision according to the Strategy, must be carried out in conditions of space for them and incentives to compensate created by the limitations of the first level. The options for improving the above levels are limited by the inherited pension system – we do not have the ability to quickly and cost-effectively increase the role and share of the non-distributive component in the pension provision of the population, however, the priority is to expand the coverage of the NGO population ^{[26] [27]}: fragmentally, but on the basis of mandatory or quasi-voluntary participation.

According to the author, it is advisable to supplement the composition of indicators for the implementation of the Strategy with appropriate indicators of the level of coverage of the entire working-age population by private pension plans (34.33% on average in OECD countries), the age of initiation of participation in such plans, the share of pension contributions in GDP.

Conclusion

The key document of strategic planning in the field of development of the national pension system is a Strategy that lays down the guidelines for its development of the system until 2030 and assumes ensuring its financial stability, bringing the short-term pension to 40% and creating an effective NGO system for medium- and high-income categories of citizens. We have identified a number of organizational problems consisting in incomplete alignment of the Strategy with strategic planning documents, national development goals of the Russian Federation until 2030, outdated terminology and lack of consideration of significant changes in the macroeconomic situation, pension provision parameters and transition to a point pension formula, inaccuracy and incompleteness of formulations of indicators of its implementation, its reliance on outdated BP data both the forecast and the lack of program-oriented management of pension costs. The author of this article has developed a number of proposals to improve the quality of the organization of strategic management of the development of the Russian pension system and defined guidelines for its long-term development. To improve the quality of strategic planning, it is necessary to define the principles of developing a long-term plan for the development of the pension system, as well as include in such a plan a risk assessment, internal stabilizers and a step-by-step breakdown of the values of indicators of its implementation.

The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds, according to the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

The scientific article was prepared under the scientific supervision of I.V. Balynin, Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Public Finance, Faculty of Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.