Regional features of the manifestation of demographic threats in terms of characteristics of marriage, motherhood and childhood

Apal'kova Tamara Gennadievna ORCID: 0000-0001-8094-1588 PhD in Economics Associate Professor; Department of Mathematics and Data Analysis; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49 Leningradsky Ave., Moscow, 125993, Russia apalkova.t.g@yandex.ru Other publications by this author     Levchenko Kirill Gennadievich ORCID: 0009-0008-7380-3388 PhD in Physics and Mathematics Associate Professor; Department of Mathematics and Data Analysis; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49 Leningradsky Prospekt str., Moscow, 125167, Russia kglevchenko@fa.ru Other publications by this author

Lipagina Larisa Vladimirovna ORCID: 0000-0002-0707-1659 PhD in Physics and Mathematics Associate Professor; Department of Mathematics and Data Analysis; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., Moscow, 125167, Russia llipagina@fa.ru

Introduction

The report "Demographic well-being of the regions of Russia" for 2022, in particular, says: "one of the main demographic characteristics of any state is the number of inhabitants. Ensuring sustainable population growth is determined within the framework of the national goal "Preservation of the population, health and well-being of people", approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated July 21, 2020 No. 203 "On National Development Goals of Russia until 2030", which determines the inclusion of the population indicator in the subsystem of indicators of goals and guidelines of family and demographic policy" ^{[1, p. 11]}. If we consider population growth from the standpoint of national security, then a direct connection is found: a shortage of population complicates the maintenance and development of regions where population density is already low, reduces defense potential, and creates a shortage of labor resources ^[2]. It should be noted that natural growth is of particular importance. In ^[3], L. Rybakovsky's opinion is given: "demographic security can be represented as a state of demographic processes that is sufficient for the reproduction of the population without significant external influence." A low birth rate leads to an aging population and increases the pension burden of the able-bodied population. Undoubtedly, maintaining sustainable growth in general and natural population growth in particular is one of the key issues of national security of the state. But despite the efforts being made at the Federal level (the launch of priority national projects "Health" in 2007 and "Demography" in 2018, the adoption of the Concept of Demographic Policy until 2025), it was possible to stop the natural decline of the population only for a relatively short period of time (2012-2016). Currently, Russia is undergoing the so–called "second wave of depopulation" (Fig. 1). According to the Demographic Yearbook of Russia in 2023, 12 regions of the Russian Federation demonstrated positive natural growth, 6 of which are the republics of the North Caucasus. According to experts, this feature is associated "with the high birth rate that persists in the national republics of the Russian Federation." ^{[4, p.12]}

Figure 1. Dynamics of natural population growth in the Russian Federation in 1991-2023, %.

Undoubtedly, fertility and mortality are determined by groups of causes of various kinds: material, spiritual, environmental. The article attempts to identify regional features of demographic indicators characterizing marriage, motherhood and childhood, as well as their relationship with natural population growth.

Data and research methods

In the publication "Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators 2023" the group of indicators "Family, marriage, motherhood and childhood" is represented by the following signs ^[5,6]:

- Infant mortality rate (number of children who died before the age of 1 year per 1000 live births);

- total fertility rate (number of children per woman);

- the total marriage rate (the number of marriages per 1000 people of the population);

- the total divorce rate (the number of divorces per 1000 people of the population);

- the ratio of marriages and divorces (the number of divorces per 1000 marriages).

The data are presented for 2005, 2010, 2015, 2021, 2022. For this study, the years of local extremes of natural population growth in the Russian Federation are selected: 2005, 2015 and 2022 as the latest year of the mentioned report.

Each of the listed indicators is considered separately: in a temporary and regional context. At the same time, the characteristics of dynamics, structure, scope and "abnormal" values (that is, the so-called values -"outliers") of signs are of primary interest. The procedure for determining emissions is as follows ^[7,8]: the upper and lower limits of the "norm" are determined, the values of the attribute less than the lower limit of the "norm" fall into the category of lower emissions, values above the upper limit fall into the category of emissions above the norm. The lower limit of the norm is calculated using the formula Q 1-1.5 IQR, the upper limit is calculated using the formula Q 3+1.5 IQR, where Q 1 and Q 3 are respectively the first and third quartiles of the sample, IQR is the value of the interquartile range.

The study of the relationship of indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood with the coefficient of natural growth is carried out at the second stage and is based on the study of the values of paired Pearson correlation coefficients ^[8] and their dynamics, as well as regression analysis. In the article, natural growth is considered as one of the indicators of demographic security, and indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood are considered as factors determining it.

Mathematical statistics methods are often used to assess regional demographic characteristics, problems and threats. Thus, in ^[9], forecasts of population changes in certain regions of the world are made based on the analysis of the dynamics of the total fertility rate, S.V. Ryazantsev and T.R. Miryazov in ^[4] formulate four criteria of demographic well-being and differentiate the regions of the Russian Federation into prosperous and disadvantaged, reflecting the results on cartograms, which makes their perception very simple and convenient In ^[10,11], multidimensional classifications of regions and territories are carried out by the method of cluster analysis and using the integral criterion, respectively, in the article ^[12] the conclusions are based on dynamic analysis. In this paper, a slightly different approach is proposed, which allows us to complement the results obtained in the above and similar works, namely, the emphasis is on identifying the most "problematic" and most prosperous regions of the Russian Federation for each characteristic. From the point of view of statistics, it is the objects demonstrating emissions that have a very significant impact on the average values of the attribute (in this case, the average for the Russian Federation). From the point of view of demographic security, studying the experience of the most "successful" and the problems of the least "successful" regions will improve both the regional situation and the situation throughout the country.

Regional characteristics of indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood

1. The infant mortality rate.

Figure 2. Characteristics of the infant mortality rate.

Diagrams 2 (a) and 2 (b) demonstrate an improvement in the characteristics in the regional context: the interregional average is steadily decreasing, the share of regions in which the coefficient value is less than the regional average increased by 2015 and remains unchanged, reflecting an improvement in the situation in a number of regions. At the same time, according to the data of 2022, "emissions" above the norm are found on the scale diagram of coefficient 2(b), that is, there are regions in which the infant mortality rate is abnormally high. According to the initial data, these are the Orel Region, the Altai Republic and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. It should be noted that the high infant mortality in the Orel region is associated with one of the worst values of the overall mortality rate in the country (81st among all regions, where 1 place corresponds to the best value), which means it is due to systemic causes, which in general can be called "quality of life in the region". In the Altai Republic and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the total mortality rate does not exceed the national average. Consequently, high infant mortality may be due to poor maternal health, poor quality of neonatal care, and related causes.

2. The birth rate.

The total fertility rate is the most important indicator of women's reproductive health and reproductive potential in the region.

Figure 3. Characteristics of the total fertility rate.

The peak regional average value of the total fertility rate was noted in 2015, after which, as discussed above, the second wave of depopulation began in Russia (Fig. 3 (a)). Less than half of the regions of the Russian Federation demonstrate higher values of the indicator (Fig. 3 (b)), despite the fact that this share has increased compared to 2005, there is no further growth. The span diagram 3(b) demonstrates the presence of regions with both abnormally high and abnormally low values of the trait. A detailed analysis of the initial sample for 2022 allows us to establish that the lower "outlier" (value 0.9) characterizes the Leningrad region. Throughout the analyzed period, this region demonstrates the worst values of the indicator for the country. High "emissions" characterize the Altai Republic (2.1), the Republic of Tyva (2.5), and the Chechen Republic (2.7). In general, in the Russian Federation, this indicator shows a moderate negative correlation with the number of abortions per 1,000 women of fertile age (the correlation is -0.4 and practically does not change over time). However, these regions do not differ in extreme values of the number of abortions. It can be assumed that in regions with high values of the total fertility rate, a family with a large number of children is one of the priorities, one of the main values of society. As a confirmation of this assumption, we present the statement of the head of the Department of Pedagogy of the Chechen State Pedagogical University, R.A. Alikhanov: "family values have remained the system-forming social structures [of Chechen society] for centuries" ^{[13, p.539]}. As for the consistently low value of the indicator in the Leningrad region, it suggests a conclusion about the poor reproductive health of the inhabitants of the region and the need for preventive measures to improve it.

3. General marriage and divorce rates.

It is believed that marriage and divorce rates are closely related to fertility rates.

Figure 4. Characteristics of the general marriage and divorce rates.

The maximum regional average value of the marriage coefficient was observed in 2015, in 2022 the value was lower than the 2005 level (Fig. 4 (a)). Also, only in 2015 there was an excess of the share of regions in which the marriage rate is higher than the regional average, that is, the fifty percent barrier (Fig. 4 (b)). However, in the same year 2015, the smallest proportion of regions (40%) demonstrated a lower than average divorce rate (Fig. 4 (b)). In the whole country, the regional average value of the total divorce rate in 2022 is the highest in the three years under review (Fig. 4 (a)). The scale diagrams (Fig. 4 (c)), constructed according to the data of 2022, demonstrate the presence of abnormal regional values for both indicators. According to the initial data, the most favorable marriage situation ("emissions" above the "norm") is in St. Petersburg and the Kamchatka Territory (about 10 marriages per 1000 people). The worst values were recorded in the Chechen Republic, the Republics of Dagestan and Ingushetia (from 2.4 to 3 marriages per 1000 people). Abnormally high values of the divorce rate were noted in 2022 in the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Karachay-Cherkess Republic (7 and 7.6 divorces per 1000 people). Thus, the regional characteristics of marriage and divorce over the entire period of observation, at least, do not demonstrate the population's tendency to register marriage officially and show a tendency to increase officially dissolved marriages. A more meaningful analysis of the situation in this area allows the indicator of the ratio of marriages and divorces, as well as a joint analysis of all three indicators of marriage and divorce.

4. The ratio of marriages to divorces (the number of divorces per 1000 marriages).

Figure 5. Characteristics of the ratio of marriages and divorces.

Figures 5 (a) and 5 (b) reflect two remarkable trends: the regional average value of the ratio of marriages and divorces increased sharply, almost one and a half times, and the share of regions in which the situation turned out to be better than the national average increased by more than 2 times. The analysis of the variability of the trait showed that the standard deviation of the ratio of marriages and divorces in 2022 increased by 3 times compared to 2015, while for other studied signs there was a decrease in variability (with the exception of the marriage coefficient, which also showed an increase in the standard deviation). The scale diagram 5(b) shows "outliers" whose values exceed 1000 units, thus, in some regions the number of divorces exceeded the number of marriages in 2022. In 2015, the highest value of the attribute was 732 – there were a maximum of 732 divorces per 1,000 marriages. The carriers of abnormally high values of the analyzed feature are the North Caucasian Republics. At the same time, three of these republics showed abnormally low marriage rates and abnormally high natural growth rates (Table 1).

Table 1. Indicators of marriage, divorce and natural growth in the republics of the North Caucasus in 2022

Note to Table 1: * - abnormally high values, ** - abnormally low values (relative to other regions).

Based on the presence of these multidimensional emissions, it would be rash to conclude that in these regions a high birth rate is characteristic of single-parent families, especially since this contradicts the traditional way of life of the republics of the North Caucasus ^[14]. To explain the reasons for the revealed dissonance, we present an expert opinion with which the authors of this article fully agree: "The share of the increase in births outside of a registered marriage is a side effect of targeted need benefits," says demographer Alexey Raksha. In order to receive them, people often get divorced (assistance is assigned based on family income), while continuing to cohabit. This is especially noticeable in the Caucasus, where there are a lot of divorces and very few marriages. In predominantly Muslim republics, where religious marriage is more important than civil marriage," he added. At the same time, Ingushetia and Chechnya have the highest birth rate in the country, the expert said, "this completely contradicts the unheard-of level of divorce in the last three years." < > "Russia is a country that has made the "loneliness" of mothers a condition for receiving benefits. Therefore, in the Caucasus, many began to divorce urgently fictitiously, while others stopped registering marriages at the registry office," he explained. The demographer believes that, given the fictitiousness of divorces and unregistered marriages, this does not have a significant impact on the birth rate. "Potentially, people who have not formed their union are easier to disperse, but this will have a very weak effect on the overall picture," says Alexey Raksha. (Quoted from the electronic edition of Vedomosti for June 27, 2023. URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2023/06/27/982427-rosstat-nazval-regioni-s-naibolshei-dolei-razvodov). Thus, the statistics of marriages and divorces do not currently allow us to assess the regional number of families and its dynamics, and therefore their impact on the natural movement of the population. Last but not least, the decrease in the number of registered marriages with the actual preservation of families signals the need to adjust the policy of support for families with children in favor of creating favorable conditions for motherhood and childhood in full-fledged families.

Let's summarize the results of identifying regions with abnormally high and abnormally low values of marriage, motherhood and childhood indicators. Table 2 shows the regions in which there is a significant difference from the general pattern in several of the studied features, or an extreme value for one of them. By a significant difference, we mean finding the value of a feature outside the boundaries of the "norm", the method of finding which is described above in the section "Data and research methods".

Table 2. Regions showing "outliers" for several, or extreme values for one of the set of studied features

The regions that are the most prosperous in terms of the analyzed characteristics should be considered as the basis for borrowing positive experience. In addition to studying the causes of demographic distress in the regions showing the worst values of signs, it is possible to assess how the national average values will change if, under the influence of correctly chosen government regulation measures, these regions leave the "emissions" category. For this purpose, the values of each trait that turned out to be "worse" than the so-called norm (for example, less than the lower limit of the "norm" for the total fertility rate, or higher than the upper limit of the "norm" for divorce rates) were replaced by median values, then the change in the regional average values of the signs as a result of such a replacement was estimated (Table 3). That is, it is assumed that it was possible to find measures that made it possible to improve the indicators of these regions to the median level in the Russian Federation.

Table 3 Assessment of the effect of regulatory measures to correct the situation in regions that showed signs of "worse" than the norm.

The smallest effect is observed for the total fertility rate due to the fact that only 42% of the regions of the Russian Federation demonstrate the value of this indicator better than the national average (Fig. 3 (b)), an improvement in regional indicators to the level of the initial median will not bring significant improvement, an increase in the total coefficient should be more significant.

Link analysis

The change in the influence of indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood on the natural growth rate of the population is reflected in table 4.

Table 4. Pearson correlation coefficients of indicators of marriage, motherhood and childhood with the coefficient of natural growth by year.

The correlation coefficients for 2005 and 2015 indicate a pronounced positive relationship between natural growth and the total fertility rate and its negative relationship with the ratio of marriages and divorces. This conclusion, in particular, is important for choosing the direction of stimulating and preventive measures of state family policy, which should not be limited to financial incentives. In terms of measures to increase the total fertility rate, among other things, education in society of respect for motherhood and large families, creation of favorable conditions and working hours for mothers, decent payment for parental leave, creation of an accessible and diverse environment to help parents in the upbringing and development of children of preschool and primary school age can be effective. Equally necessary are measures to reduce the number of divorces. To develop and implement them, of course, it is necessary first of all to analyze the causes, but it will definitely be useful to strengthen the understanding of the value of the family in the minds of the younger generation.

In the values of 2022 (Table 4), the influence of fictitious divorces on the coupling coefficients is found. Thus, only one significant factor of influence on natural growth remains available for analysis – the total fertility rate. The last column shows how the correlation is affected by the exclusion from calculations of regions with extremely high divorce rates, which were mentioned above.

According to the data of 2022, the parameters were estimated and the equation of paired linear regression (1) was obtained:

, (1)

where is the theoretical value of the coefficient of natural growth per 1000 people of the population,

X is the value of the total fertility rate.

The coefficient of determination of the equation is 0.56, the parameters are statistically significant at the level of 0.0001.

Model (1) suggests that an increase in the total fertility rate by 0.1 will increase natural growth by an average of 1.3 units.

However, as it was demonstrated above, it is the total fertility rate that is the most problematic indicator of the entire group under consideration, therefore, the search for measures to increase it is far from a trivial task.

Conclusion

Summing up the results of the study, it is necessary, first, to note the identified demographic threats in terms of characteristics of marriage, motherhood and childhood:

– Abnormally high infant mortality has been noted in a number of regions, which does not correlate with the overall mortality rate;

– the regional average value of the total fertility rate, the most important factor of natural population growth, is significantly lower than the level sufficient for simple reproduction of the population and is decreasing (2022 compared to 2015), 58% of the regions of the Russian Federation demonstrate values of this indicator below the national average;

– the average regional divorce rate increases, the marriage rate decreases (2022 compared to 2015);

– there is a growing reluctance to register marriage officially, as well as the number of fictitious divorces, which is especially evident in the situation in the republics of the North Caucasus, where religious marriage is of great social importance, this makes it difficult to take into account the number of actually existing families and its impact on the natural movement of the population.

Secondly, it was possible to formulate some recommendations on the formation of an effective family policy in terms of solving the problem of depopulation:

– in regions with high infant mortality rates, measures are needed to ensure reproductive health and improve the quality of neonatal and perinatal care;

– since the total fertility rate is defined as the most important factor influencing the natural growth rate, measures to increase it should be considered as a priority, this requires not only financial incentives, but also the formation of a social environment favorable for large families, families with preschool children, creating the possibility of implementing a special work schedule for working mothers, the formation of a universally respectful attitude towards motherhood, improving the health of women of reproductive age ^[10];

– measures of state financial support for single mothers should not be disproportionately large compared to support for full families, since such a disparity leads to a decrease in the number of officially registered marriages, which, in turn, may adversely affect the state of the family institution in the country;

– it is necessary to study the positive experience of social, material, motivational support for families and, in particular, families with children, as well as preventive measures to maintain social incentives for the birth of a third or more children ^[13,15-17] in the most prosperous according to one or more of the characteristics analyzed in the article;

– the most intensive regulatory measures at the State and regional levels should be implemented in the most problematic regions of the Russian Federation, which, like the most prosperous ones, are identified in this study.