Theoretical foundations for the development of criteria for evaluating audience preferences in modern cinema

Shishkanov Andrey Ivanovich General Director, "Movie Universe" 123001, Russia, Moscow, Moscow region, Malaya Bronnaya str., 31/13 andrey.i.shishkanov@gmail.com

Modern cinema today more than ever reflects the current transformations and trends of socio-economic development, promoting the phenomenon of entertainment, which arose in the XIX century, into various platforms of socio-cultural reality. In its evolution, cinema increasingly acquires the character of an economic category where the laws of competition apply, and marketing plays a significant role in this process, where films (with the exception of author's films) are increasingly considered as investment projects. In this study, modern cinema is considered in the totality of understanding the industry of film production and distribution. As an object of research, the author considers a marketing theoretical discourse limited to the mass segment of the film market, which is a fairly wide interdisciplinary field (psychology, cultural studies, sociology, economic theory, and other disciplines), which form part of the theoretical foundations for the development of criteria for evaluating "audience" / consumer preferences. At the same time, marketing in this industry has its own specifics, determined by the combination of art and business in cinema. It can be quite difficult to separate one from the other, and the survival of cinema as an art largely depends on its success as a business. The process of studying the audience and its preferences as a complex socio-economic phenomenon is in constant development and change, becoming the subject of research by art historians who study the attractiveness of film products from the point of view of artistic value; sociologists who make up portraits of the most active groups of viewers; economists who evaluate the commercial results of the film industry, the payback of production costs; entrepreneurs and investors who determine the effectiveness investments in this area.

In order to promote a particular film, it is necessary to justify its economic feasibility, the volume and timing of investments, as well as an assessment of risks. Each project has its own commercial potential, for a film project it is the ability to attract a target audience to various platforms that display films. Forecasting audience preferences is becoming even more relevant in the modern era of rapid development of information and computer technologies, electronic channels of film screenings, which makes significant adjustments to consumption patterns, significantly expands the range of consumer choice, increases competition in the cultural and leisure sphere. Thanks to the personification carried out by modern film screening platforms, film producers and distributors form their own ideas about the needs and interests of the audience. However, the criteria for evaluating audience preferences in modern cinema are becoming more and more layered and diverse, requiring a more formalized methodology for measuring them.

Modern marketing has developed an effective set of tools to influence consumer choice and stimulate the growth of the audience, which led to the emergence of such a phenomenon as global personification of content ^[1]. At the same time, the creation of highly artistic domestic film products should become the main factor in attracting audience attention and increasing the volume of the audience, which determines the need to develop new methods for predicting audience preferences and reducing the uncertainty factor for the film industry.

Modern analysts of the cinematographic sphere ^[2-5] use well-known economic forecasting methods, trying to predict the "failure" of cinematographic films, estimating box office receipts in a long-term plan, determining those parameters that will not only explain one or another background of audience preference, but will also be able to explain on what basis the predictor of demand for this film arose.

A theoretical review of the scientific literature on the problems of obtaining statistical data and forecasting in the field of film production indicates the actual impossibility of making clear forecasts due to the individual psychological characteristics of the viewer and his preferences. This provision presupposes the development of criteria for audience preference, already taking into account the individual factors identified by theorists that influence the formation of audience preference. A.B. Dolgin in the book "Economics of Symbolic Exchange" as a research base presents the connection of information and economic logic in an attempt to scientifically systematize the result of collaborative filtering in cinema. Analyzing the author's reflections, it is possible to identify several cognitive-emotional fundamentals of viewer preference, representing some interconnected system of criteria for evaluating such preferences, which are subject to measurement, study, and consideration in the development of investment cinematographic directions.

The pragmatics of cultural development, which A.B. Dolgin associates with the possibility of integrating economic categories into culture, in our opinion, within the framework of studying the possibility of predicting and optimizing the sphere of domestic market cinema, makes it successful and attractive for investment. The researcher focuses on the fact that, "in everyday, utilitarian matters, the consumer clearly knows his interest and is motivated to pay more for the objectively best. Accordingly, the manufacturer is interested in providing this best" ^{[6, p.14]}. The scientific work of D. Kahneman and A. Tversky is a confirmation of the problematic nature of making forecasts for the subsequent financial success of film projects and obtaining statistical information. According to the results of an empirical study of human behavior patterns in situations involving risk and lack of clear certainty, the key motivation for actions in this case is the desire to avoid losses ^[7].

However, in cinematography as an economic industry, this does not manifest itself quite like that, because the criteria of quality (attractiveness and demand) of a film are not such an objective category as the cost equivalent of such quality. It is in this aspect, in our opinion, that the methodological basis for developing criteria for evaluating audience preference in cinema begins as one of the factors of the general system for evaluating the quality of cultural market products as a potential source of income.

Most potential viewers are not familiar with probability estimation tools, but such a factor is consciously understood by them. In general, this awareness is a well-known fact. So, in accordance with the "Alley paradox", if there are two alternative options: an insignificant, but one hundred percent gain, on the one hand, and an impressive, but only 90% possible, on the other, a person will prefer the first option. The study of this issue in the study by A. Tversky and C. R. Fox contributed to the development of an understanding of such a preference as the "certainty effect" ^[8]. M. Alley, studying the behavior of a rational person under risk conditions, focuses on the fact that the leading cause of the counterproductivity of predicting success is It is not uncommon to groundlessly replace the understanding of probability, suitable for a separate independent case, with another understanding. The extrapolation of these trends of everyday life into the field of filmmaking contributes to the formulation of the hypothesis that, with the alternative of films available for viewing, the specific choice of the audience will be determined by an option with a higher level of "guaranteed winnings" ^[9]. Thus, the consumer will proceed from the feedback of his social environment, recommendations from the portals of the Global Network and other factors.

The "certainty effect" described above is not the only one, the power of which extends to the cases under consideration of the formation of a system of viewer preferences. Thus, the above-mentioned researchers additionally highlight the "formulation effect", the essence of which is expressed in the fundamental effect of the formulation of the results of choosing a specific option from several possible options on the preference realized as a result. To reveal the specifics of this effect, the authors used the material of medical practice. One clear example of this effect is the use of the phrase "lives are lost" instead of the phrase "lives are saved." In the first case, the potential consequences of loss of life provide patients with a choice in favor of risk, as opposed to the second option.

The previously mentioned A.B. Dolgin also cites a similar position, starting from the scientific work of McNeil, Pauker, and other authors. In particular, he notes significant differences in the choice of patients and medical professionals in favor of possible cancer treatment options when formulating the potential consequences of appropriate treatment courses in terms of life or death. For example, in contrast to radiation therapy, when describing the possible risks of using surgery, the death of the patient is indicated, among other things. As a result, familiarization of patients with the statistics of the use of this method, expressed in mortality rates, led to a preferential preference in favor of another treatment option, where statistics were expressed in survival rates.

In the context of the aspect we are considering, the role of the effects of formulations in the audience's preference for a particular film project from existing alternatives, and, accordingly, in making a forecast of the financial productivity of this tape, is available for determination by analyzing the content of modern social networks and reviews of the film on various Internet resources ^[10-13]. To a certain extent, this issue is the subject of scientific interest of N.V. Noakk and A.N. Znamenskaya. Thus, in an analytical comparison of various film projects, these researchers identified the relationship between trailers for released films and subsequent box office receipts. In particular, they point out that the high quality and adequacy of the audio series of the trailer contribute to the consumer's choice of the appropriate film to watch. At the same time, the insufficient level of quality of modern Russian trailers is emphasized, which prevents the positive dynamics of audience preference ^[14].

Considering the issues of statistics, assessment of the potential commercial success of a film production and the complex of factors affecting it, it is advisable to cite D. Kahneman's position. This researcher provides an argument for the value of simple formulas for forecasting, operating with a low number of basic criteria ^[15]. Thus, this author emphasizes the importance of formulas that provide equal weight for each predictive factor, which is due to their indifference to the randomness associated with the organization of the sample.

In the context of the statistics of the film business sector, the corresponding hypothesis will look like this: a model for evaluating the future success of projects in certain genres is able to provide a higher level of reliability compared to models that ignore genre originality. Thus, in the study of methods for predicting the commercial success of films, carried out by A.S. Tatarnikov, the great reliability of the predictive model using information on paintings of certain genres of entertainment (in particular, adventure films, comedies, etc.) was confirmed ^[16].

In conducting this study, it seems advisable to give an example of the analysis of the scientific works of A. Mitta, who focused on the peculiarities of the perception of the film by the audience. A. Mitta pays special attention to ways to activate the emotional interest of consumers of film products and preserve it throughout the entire viewing. So, as the main emotional conditions for the success of the picture are determined, in particular:

1. Implementation of an engagement strategy that ensures the "full immersion" of viewers in the action on the screen.

The availability of intensification of consumer interest is associated with a number of fundamental points:

− strict dosing of the information that the viewer receives;

− giving out less information than the viewer is trying to get;

− leaving the most valuable and meaningful information "for later";

− maintaining the relationship between the issuance of information and the difficulty of obtaining it;

2. Achieving empathy from the audience of the film. For this, a prerequisite is the identity of the character and problems of the characters of the picture to the moral attitudes and stereotypes of consumers of film products. The consequence of the emergence of empathy is identification, in which the audience "lives" the situations and events of the characters, shares their joys and hardships, sincerely "rooting" for a favorable outcome for the hero;

3. Ensuring the phenomenon of "suspense". In other words, we are talking about creating situational moments of maximum penetration of the audience into the scenario plan, the most complete intensification of their empathy for the hero of the film (for example, in case of danger to the life of a character to whom the audience has already become sympathetic). Here a logical question arises about the number of such moments in a high-quality motion picture. The phenomenon of suspense reflects the immediate emotional and sensual reaction of the audience to the current development of the film, due to the unity of the viewer and the hero, in which the visitor of the cinema session experiences sensations identical to the character (for example, fear, anxiety, excitement, etc.). When the character becomes significant and valuable to the viewer, sincerely wishing victory to the protagonist, at this moment and suspense appears. The specificity of this phenomenon is manifested in a change in the usual dynamics of the passage of time. A. N. Mitta in his book "Cinema between Hell and Heaven" notes that A. Hitchcock emphasized that in the decisive phase of suspense, a significant slowdown in time is necessary, and this technique positively contributes to increasing the emotional involvement of the audience ^[17]. For the practical implementation of this condition, in the production of a motion picture, the duration of the suspense moment is purposefully increased by demonstrating the same moment from different angles, in a different perspective, from the position of individual characters.

The "flow experience", mentioned and analyzed by many scientists (albeit under different terms), demonstrates a nature similar to the above phenomenon, and despite the significant variability in understanding its content, its attribution to intrapersonal motivation seems optimal ^[18].

Ideas about the experience of flow as a special psychological state of complete fascination with the subject's activities are characteristic of the psychological concept of flow by M. Csikszentmihalyi. A. E. Voiskunsky starts from the same understanding in his scientific work, indicating the accessibility of classifying this experience as one of the algorithms for the implementation of personal motivation. As A. E. Voiskunsky emphasizes, when considering the experience of flow by Russian scientists, the psychology of attention is determined by the predominant aspect of the analysis ^[19].

Separate characteristics of the flow experience are found in the study by N. V. Noakk and A. N. Znamenskaya, when analyzing the signs of an ideal cinematic work highlighted by the respondents. Thus, many of them noted the loss of a sense of time when viewing a picture, the loss of a sense of self-perception, unity with reality reproduced on the screen, etc. ^[20]. At the same time, it is quite obvious that the peculiarities of using the concept of "flow" in relation to the perception of films need special directed scientific study. In our opinion, the prerequisite for the disclosure of this phenomenon through the term "flow" was the individual perception of their own feelings by a number of respondents who used the association with the absorbing flow to display them.

Thus, summing up, it seems necessary to note some provisions highlighted based on the analysis of a small segment of the theoretical discourse of domestic and foreign literature devoted to the problems and prospects of the development of the film industry, indicating a high degree of study of the problem of assessing audience preferences for predicting the commercial success of a particular motion picture:

– the unproductiveness of statements about the possibility of a clear assessment of the potential financial productivity of a film project. Accessibility of the direction of efforts for the implementation of approximate forecasting when operating with a certain set of factors and differentiation of the application of models for individual situations (genres);

– the need to pay attention to the phenomena of audience choice (for example, the "certainty effect", etc.);

– the high importance of the "stream experience" within the stage of watching a movie for its emotional perception by the audience. Based on this, it seems acceptable to use this phenomenon as one of the characteristics of an "ideal" film. Among the significant psychological features of this phenomenon, it is necessary to highlight the ability to transform the perception of time by the audience. It seems advisable to take this feature into account during the preparation of the organization of subsequent experimental scientific work in the field of developing criteria for audience preference in modern cinema.

The perspective of this study did not include the methodological development of criteria for evaluating audience preferences in modern cinema, however, this work pointed to the relevance and importance of such an approach in the future in order to select the theoretical foundations for the development of an assessment of audience preferences in the mass segment of the domestic film market.

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