The history of migration in Northeast China in the XX-XXI centuries.

Van Zirui Postgraduate student; Faculty of the Higher School of Modern Social Sciences; Lomonosov Moscow State University 119991, Russia, Moscow, Leninskie Gory str., 1, p. 13 VanZirui@yandex.ru

introduction

An analysis of the current situation in Northeast China shows that with relatively stable fertility and mortality rates, migration flows have become a significant factor determining the demographic dynamics of the region. In the early 1980s, the number of migrants in China was extremely low due to strict planned economic management and restrictions related to registration at the place of residence. Starting in the mid-1980s, the number of migrants began to grow rapidly, and by 2015, the total number of internal migrants in China reached 247 million people. Migration flows in Northeast China have specific features.

Despite the fact that in China, some studies highlight this issue ^{[30] [31] [32]}, it remains insufficiently researched. In Russia, the field of demographic research is very developed ^{[1] [2] [3]}. At the same time, there is currently no discussion about this problem in the Russian scientific field. By starting it, the author hopes to spur interest in this topic in terms of developing methods to avoid and prevent such situations as the one faced by northeast China.

In terms of the scale of migration, the Northeast is a region with a net outflow of population: since 2011, the average annual outflow has been more than 2 million people, and this trend is increasing every year. Intraregional differences also matter: Liaoning, with its two subprovincial cities, is a province with a net influx of population, whereas Jilin and Heilongjiang are characterized by a net outflow of population, and in Heilongjiang this indicator is the highest ^[16][17][18].

The purpose of this article is to analyze the current situation and the history of the development of internal migration in Northeast China from the end of the XX century to the beginning of the XXI century, as well as to determine the causes of its occurrence and factors influencing migration processes in this region.

The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that, based on the analysis of texts, it is possible to understand the demographic development and the history of migration in underdeveloped regions of China (Northeast), as well as to make some generalizations and conclusions about the underlying causes of demographic changes in underdeveloped regions of other countries.

The history of population development in Northeast China in the 20th century

In modern history, internal migration of the population in China has mainly occurred in three main directions: "movement through Guangdong (to the northeast)", "movement to the west" and "descent to the South China Sea". The number of "going west" is several million people, while the number of "going to the South China Sea" is smaller due to the restrictive policies of other countries ^{[28, p. 62]}. The number of people from the "movement through Guangdong" was the most numerous and numbered tens of millions of people, on average about 500 thousand people moved every year. The "movement through Guangdong" laid the foundation for today's population development in the Northeast.

"Movement through Guangdong" is an abbreviated name for the direction of modern Chinese migration to the northeast, which appeared during the Qing Dynasty and was so large-scale that at that time it was considered one of the largest population movements ever committed by mankind. "Movement through Guangdong" implies that the ultimate goal of human migration will be one of three points: Liaoning Province, Jilin Province, Heilongjiang Province ^{[28, p. 64]}.

In the mid-late 19th century, the productivity of the territory south of Shanhaiguan was seriously undermined by the effects of prolonged wars, and due to frequent disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, where there was little land and many people, especially in Shandong, where disasters were severe, a large number of peasants were in extreme poverty, and their livelihood was not guaranteed. Fertile, sparsely populated and wealthy northeast China was extremely attractive to peasants south of Shanhaiguan, which prompted the starving peasants of Shandong and other places to become the bulk of the population of the "Movement through Guangdong". In fact, Guangdong was a spontaneous and unstoppable movement of poor peasants fleeing poverty ^{[28, p. 64]}.

The history of demographic changes among the migrant population in Northeast China in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century

From the point of view of the entire historical development of modern Northeast China, internal migration in Northeast China can be divided into three stages: Migration at the end of the Qing Dynasty, Migration in the Republic of China and migration during Japanese colonial rule.

1. The migration period at the end of the Qing Dynasty

Migration in the region is always influenced by politics. In the middle of the Qing Dynasty, a strict policy of closure was applied to northeast China, prohibiting the influx of people from the south from Shanhaiguan to northeast China, and at the end of the Qing Dynasty, due to the overpopulation of the territory south of Shanhaiguan, the lack of rational development of natural resources in northeast China, as well as the border crisis, the government, although and it did not pursue a full-fledged policy of encouraging large-scale internal migration to northeast China, and individual concessions began to appear in this regard.

The number of migrants in northeast China grew rapidly: from 5.42 million in 1898 to 14.92 million in 1911, that is, 2.75 times in 13 years. Most of the migrants were from Shandong Province.

2. Migration period in the Republic of China

During the period of the Republic of China, the number of migrants in the Tohoku region grew by leaps and bounds: in the 20 years from the founding of the Republic of China in 1911 to the 1930s, immediately before the September 18 incident, the population of the Tohoku region almost doubled - from 18.117 million to 30.087 million people. With the exception of natural population growth, the vast majority of population growth was caused by internal migration.

If in 1921 the number of migrants from the Northeast was 5 thousand people, by 1923 it had grown to 400 thousand. In subsequent years, under the influence of wars, social unrest and prolonged natural disasters, the scale of migration from the Northeast continued to grow, and on average annually amounted to about 700 thousand people ^{[15, p. 74]}. In addition to the large scale of internal migration, this period was also characterized by a transition from single migrants to people migrating with families, a decrease in seasonal migration and an increase in permanent migration.

3. Migration during Japanese colonial rule

After the occupation of Northeast China by Japan, the Japanese government implemented a policy of restricting internal migration from provinces south of Shanhaiguan to Northeast China. Between 1932 and 1937, a policy of a complete ban on migration was adopted, which forced some refugees to return to the south of Shanhaiguan, significantly reducing the influx of migrants to Northeast China.

Since 1937, Japan began actively exploiting the resources of Northeast China, which led to a shortage of labor in the region. In response, the Japanese government forcibly sent prisoners of war and civilians from all over the country to the northeast. About 100,000 workers were imported annually. According to statistics, from 1930 to 1942, a total of 5.04 million people arrived in Northeast China, of which more than 3.27 million left, and the remaining amounted to about 1.76 million people ^{[26, p. 3]}.

The migration of this period was characterized by a young age composition, a heterogeneous sexual structure, as well as the forced nature of the importation of internal migrants.

Changes in the number of migrants in northeast China from the second half of the twentieth century to the 21st century

During the period from the second half of the 20th century to the 21st century, demographic changes in northeast China went through four main phases.

Phase I: Rapid population growth (1949-1980)

Since the formation of New China, the share of the population of the Northeast region in the total population of the country has shown steady growth: from 7.11% in 1949 to 9.07% in 1980, which is the highest figure in history. At the same time, the population of northeast China increased faster than the national average ^{[25, p. 17]}.

Due to the availability of resources for the development of heavy industry, relatively developed infrastructure and proximity to the Soviet Union, in the period from 1949 to 1962, China's national policy stimulated large-scale migration of labor from other provinces to northeast China. This led to a wave of migration of the rural population, mainly from densely populated areas of the eastern coast to remote areas of the northeastern and northwestern parts of the country, for the purpose of reclamation and development of uninhabited territories ^{[25, p. 17]}.

As part of the First Five-year Plan, Shanghai sent 336.5 thousand people, and the main influx of population to support construction was sent to three northeastern provinces: Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang ^{[14, p. 29]}. The net population inflow to Liaoning amounted to 1.262 million people, and to Heilongjiang - 1.218 million people ^{[25, p. 18]}

Since about 1960, due to a number of factors such as natural disasters and the international situation, the total population of China began to decline. However, the population of northeast China continued to increase. In the period from 1963 to 1980, the influx of population to Northeast China gradually decreased ^{[15, p. 71]}. Political measures such as the return of young intellectuals to the cities, the return of some specialists to the cities and the relocation of enterprises significantly reduced the level of migration to Northeast China, but net migration of the population persisted.

Phase II: Stable population growth (1980-1990)

Since 1980, the proportion of the population of northeast China relative to the total population of the country has shown a downward trend: from a peak of 9.07% in 1980 to 8.68% in 1990. During the same period, Northeast China's annual population growth rate became lower than the national average for the first time and has remained at a relatively low level ever since. In 1990, the annual population growth rate in the northeastern region was only 1.01%, and the region entered a period of stable demographic development ^{[23, p. 38]}.

With the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, the registration system began to weaken. The decree of the State Council of 1984 on the resettlement of peasants to cities relaxed restrictions on the transformation of rural households into urban ones, which led to a rapid increase in the number of internal migrants ^{[25, p. 19]}.

During this period, latent excess labor in rural areas was released, and economic factors such as job search and business management became the main causes of population displacement. Population movement during this period mainly occurred spontaneously on a market basis, and the proportion of planned movement, such as transfer to another job, decreased.

After 1980, the annual population growth rate in northeast China was lower than the national average. In addition to the decrease in the birth rate under the influence of family planning policy, the tendency towards population concentration in the areas of the east coast increased, which led to an acceleration of the net outflow of the population ^{[15, p. 72]}. During this period, northeast China transformed from a region with a net influx of population to a region with a net outflow of population.

Phase III: Slow population growth (1991-1999)

From 1991 to 2000, Northeast China's annual population growth was less than 1%, but steadily exceeded 0.5%, indicating a slow increase in the total population. During this period, the natural population growth of northeast China also remained above 3,000 people annually. The total population of northeast China increased from 99.22 million in 1990 to 105.43 million in 1999, increasing by 6.22 million over the decade ^{[15, p. 73]}. Thus, during this period, the population of northeast China was experiencing a slow growth phase.

Stage IV: the stage of very low population growth (2000-2015)

Since 2000, Northeast China's annual population growth rate has remained below 5% (except for a few years), and its share of China's total population has decreased from 8.35% to 8.17% in 2009. During this decade, the population of Northeast China increased by only 3.26 million people, which is significantly slower compared to previous periods ^{[29, p. 25]}.

Since 2015, the natural population growth rate has fallen below zero, entering a negative phase. In 2016, it turned positive again, but by 2020 it had fallen below zero again, reaching -4.21 per thousand people in 2021. Northeast China experienced a steady decline in population for six out of seven years until 2021, and since 2017 this indicator has remained negative ^{[15, p. 74]}.

The demographic situation of northeast China at the turn of the twentieth-twentieth centuries.

In the 1990s, Northeast China was under the influence of industrial transformation policies, which led to mass unemployment among workers and specialists of state-owned enterprises. As a result, many families faced serious financial difficulties, and the region quickly turned from a dynamically developing to an underdeveloped one. From the 1990s to the present, the demographic development of Northeast China has shifted from stable growth to negative trends.

In 1990, the population of the northeastern region was more than 99,333,291 people. According to the data of the seventh national census in 2020, the population has decreased to 98,511,000 people, which is 820,000 less than in 1990. Until the mid-1960s, the population growth rate in the northeast of the country was higher than the national average. From 1990 to 2020, the population growth rate in the northeast continued to decline: from 7.26% per decade in 1990-2000 to 2.78% per decade in 2000-2010, and then to negative values of -10.04% per decade in 2010-2020 ^{[8, p. 31]}.

The share of the population of the north-eastern region in the total population of the country continues to decrease, and the gap between the population growth rates in the region and the country as a whole is increasing. The population growth rate in the northeast has always been lower than the national average. From 1990 to 2000, the population growth rate in the country was 11.66%, whereas in the northeast it was 4.40% lower ^{[29, p. 26]}. From 2010 to 2020, the gap between population growth rates in the northeast and across the country increased to 15.42%. The discrepancy in population growth rates with national indicators led to a gradual decrease in the share of the population of the North-Eastern region in the total population of the country: from 8.76% in 1990 to 8.42% in 2000, 8.17% in 2010 and 6.98% in 2020 ^{[8, p. 34]}.

Figure 1. The history of population change in Northeast China. Source: National Statistical Yearbook.

The state of the population of the provinces of the Northeast region of China

According to the population census of Heilongjiang Province conducted in 2020, the population was 30.99 million, of which 20.52 million are urban and 10.47 million are rural. In the period between the fourth and fifth censuses (2000), the population of the province increased by 1.68 million people, which is an average of 168 thousand people per year, or 0.48%. Between the fifth and sixth censuses (2005), the population of Heilongjiang Province increased by 1.315 million people, which is an average of 378.8 thousand people per year, or 0.48%. Over the five-year period from the fifth census to 2005, the population of the province increased by 1.31 million people, with an average annual increase of 262 thousand people, or 0.71%. ^{[22, p. 4]}

Figure 2. Changes in the population of Heilongjiang. Source: Platform for city data queries.

Between 1990 and 2010, covering the Sixth Chinese Census, the population of Jilin Province showed a slow growth trend. The total population increased from 24.66 million in 1990 to 27.47 million in 2010, representing an increase of 2.81 million people, with an average annual growth rate of about 0.5%. Since the beginning of the XXI century, despite the continued population growth, the growth rate has gradually stabilized ^{[29, p. 26]}. However, by the time of the seventh national census in 2020, the population of Jilin Province was 24,073,453, which is 3,379,362 fewer than the results of the sixth census in 2010, which corresponds to a decrease of 12.31% over the decade, or an average of 1.31% per year.^[4]

Figure 3. Changes in the population of Jilin. Source: Platform for city data queries.

By 2020, the total population of Liaoning reached 42.38 million people, which allowed it to take the 14th place among the regions of China. Compared with the results of the sixth national population census conducted in 2010, over the past ten years the population has decreased by 1.2 million people, or 2.64%, the average annual growth rate was -0.27%. The data are compiled from the study "The impact of a low birth rate on the future development of the population of northeast China - Hou Jianming" ^{[20, p. 58]}. Among the 14 regions that make up this territory, two are inhabited by more than 5 million people, Shenyang and Dalian; one is inhabited by 3 to 5 million, Anshan; six regions have a population of 2 to 3 million people (Fushun, Benxi, Dandong, Jinzhou, Yingkou, Fuxin); and five regions have less than 2 million people (Liaoyang, Tielin, Chaoyang, Panjin and Huludao). Shenyang and Dalian together make up 38.69% of the total population of the province.

Figure 4. Changes in the population of Liaoning. Source: Platform for city data queries.

The development of the population of Northeast China has gone through several stages from rapid growth to contraction. From the early 1950s to the end of the 1970s, the total population of Northeast China relative to the entire country showed an increasing trend. In the early 1960s, the population of Northeast China continued to grow, even as the total population of the country was declining ^{[29, p. 27]}.

Since the early 1980s, the share of the population of Northeast China in the total population of the country began to decline, and its demographic situation gradually deteriorated against the background of the general demographic map of China. Data from the Fifth and Sixth population censuses show a significantly lower overall fertility rate in the northeast region of China compared to the national average. During the Sixth Population Census, the fertility rate in the three northeastern provinces significantly lagged behind the national average, ranking in the bottom five according to this indicator ^{[29, p. 28]}.

From the point of view of migrants, the development of the migrant movement in the Northeast has gone through the following stages. At the beginning of the 19th century, a large number of migrants from the south of Shanhaiguan, who came to Northeast China as a result of the "movement to Guangdong", laid the foundation for the development of the population of Northeast China.

The first half of the 19th century was also the period of the greatest and fastest growth in the number of immigrants in the Northeast, during which a large number of landless workers from all over the country arrived in the Northeast, which significantly freed the Northeast from productivity constraints.

From the second half of the 19th century to the end of the 19th century, northeast China continued to be an important industrial base and economic center after the creation of new China, which was facilitated by political policy, as a result of which a large number of migrants from all parts of China arrived in the northeast, which significantly stimulated its economic and industrial development.

At the end of the XIX - beginning of the XX century, as a result of the adjustment of China's state policy, the northeast region underwent industrial and economic changes. Many government agencies have left the region, which has significantly affected the economy and the population. As a result of a significant outflow of population, the northeastern region ceased to be an inflow zone and became an outflow zone.

Registration problems for internal migrants in China

In China, the characteristic that determines whether a person is a migrant or not is a change of residence. The most important characteristic of the "floating" population is the separation of the place of registration from the actual place of residence. The large "floating" population of China and their family members move, but according to the papers "stay there"; if they transfer their household registration to their current place of residence, they will become the household population of the place of entry ^{[6, p. 15]}.

However, according to existing studies, migrants' enthusiasm for changing the place of registration is not as great as one might expect, and migrants have a variety of choices in their desire to move their registration, with more than half of them preferring to keep registration at the place of departure or showing indecision. ^{[11, p. 75]}

Migration of the population under the influence of economics and capital

Spatial migration of the population is a long-standing social phenomenon that has a significant impact on the economic development of various regions. Economically developed areas often offer ample employment opportunities and attract specialists, which contributes to their own economic growth. At the same time, the loss of human capital as a result of migration flows has become a significant phenomenon in the economic context of Northeast China ^{[29, p. 28]}.

Migration flows of the population are a consequence of economic inequality between regions and play an important role in strengthening or weakening this inequality. The problem of outflow of human capital caused by population movements is one of the key causes of economic problems in Northeast China, which in the future may have a significant impact on the future economic development of the region.

The effects of migration on human capital

In addition to regional changes associated with an increase or decrease in the population, migration flows of people also lead to changes in human capital. Human capital has a unique value, property, which is naturally attributed to a person, and ownership of it is limited to the person who embodies it.

The population of the northeastern provinces of China - Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang - continues to decrease systematically, which is accompanied by an increase in net outflow of population. The average age of the emigrating population is below the national average, while their level of education is higher, which makes the outflow not only a problem in numbers, but also a loss of human capital, which affects the economic growth of the region.

Most other provinces in China with high levels of population outflow are dominated by large agricultural regions, where outflow actually represents the movement of labor from traditional agriculture to industry. In Northeast China, which is a relatively urbanized region, there is a significant outflow of the population with high education and unrelated to the agricultural sector ^{[21, p. 7]}.

The economic development of the region critically depends on the availability of a sufficient number of specialists, and the loss of such personnel has a significant impact. Currently, the economic downturn in Northeast China is being exacerbated by the departure of highly qualified specialists. Highly educated residents of the region prefer to leave, while the influx of people with a low level of education does not compensate for losses, which reduces the overall quality of the migration flow in the region and reduces its ability to replace specialists.

The net outflow of highly qualified specialists does not contribute to the development of entrepreneurship, innovation and economic activity, which hinders the creation and development of new industries and slows down the economic growth of Northeast China. This is one of the key reasons why this region has become one of the least developed in the country.

The impact of migrants on economic development

The northeast region of China lags behind the country in terms of economic development, which reduces its attractiveness for talented specialists. The problem of human capital outflow caused by population decline is one of the key causes of economic difficulties in this region. In the long term, this may affect its future economic development and deepen the status of an underdeveloped region in China.

The population, as an important factor of socio-economic development, has a significant impact on the economic growth of the region. The size of the population is directly related to the amount of labor needed for the development of the local economy, which is determined by the scale of migration flows. Migration flows also influence the formation of regional human capital.

In the context of the transition to a new level of economic development, human capital is becoming a key growth factor. From 2001 to 2014, the share of the Northeast region in China's total GDP showed a steady decline. In 2001, the region's GDP was 105,436 billion yuan, which was 9.51% of the national GDP. By 2014, this figure had grown to 57,469 billion yuan, which was 8.92% of the national GDP. Over 14 years, the GDP of the Northeast has increased by 5.45 times, which is lower than the national average growth rate of 5.81 times ^{[5, p. 16]}.

Employment in the region showed an upward trend and by 2014 amounted to 7.88% of the total number of people employed in the country. However, the share of investments in fixed assets in the Northeast in 2014 was the lowest in the last 14 years and amounted to only 9.86% of the total volume in the country ^{[12, p. 27]}.

Impact on the quality of the employed population

The outflow of university graduates has a significant impact on the educational structure of the working population in the region, which is manifested in the proportion of the working population with higher or secondary education relative to the total population. This share is associated with the expansion of higher education both at the country level as a whole and in the Northeast region of China. In the context of an increase in the number of graduates of higher educational institutions, there is a tendency to increase the proportion of people with higher education both in the total population of the country and in the Northeast region.

The average share of people with higher education in the total population of the country increased from 5.6% in 2001 to 16% in 2014, which means that the indicator has tripled over the specified period. In the regional context, Liaoning almost always stood out with a significantly higher coefficient compared to the national average, with the exception of a few years after 2011, when the gap began to narrow. In Jilin, the level of education of the population is close to the national average, the difference does not exceed 1.5 percentage points. Until 2011, the share of highly educated workers in Jilin was above the national average, but after this period it decreased to a level below the national average ^{[7, p. 9]}.

In Heilongjiang, until 2011, the corresponding indicators periodically exceeded the national average, but after that time the national indicators significantly exceeded the average level in Heilongjiang, the excess was more than three percentage points.

Figure 5. Percentage of the employed population with higher education and higher in the Northeast and in the country, 2001-2014 Source: Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2002-2015.

The impact of migration on other issues

The outflow of population leads to an increase in the number of children and the elderly remaining in rural areas. When migrants leave, children and the elderly are more likely to remain unaccompanied, as they leave alone or together, which requires significant financial costs to provide their education and care.

Migration also leads to the fact that elderly people left unattended, whose health deteriorates with age, face the risk of being left without the necessary care. Children, due to geographical restrictions, cannot always provide timely and adequate care for them. These people receive less support in the field of health, economic security and social comfort than their peers who remain in cities. At the same time, they are more actively involved in the labor market ^{[27, p. 56]}.

Outflow can also lead to the desolation of land and the destruction of houses in some areas. After the migrants leave, a significant part of the agricultural land remains without proper care, as it is difficult for the remaining elderly people to perform all the necessary work due to limited physical abilities. This leads to land abandonment, which does not contribute to progress in agricultural science and technology. In the northeastern region, the share of empty houses is 82.2%, which is the highest among empty households in the country ^{[24, p. 2]}.

In recent years, the Northeast region has seen a slowdown in economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) continues to increase, but its share in the total Chinese volume has decreased. Economic growth depends on long-term factors such as investment and technological progress. Investments in fixed assets contribute to economic growth, but have their limitations, and relying solely on large-scale investments to stimulate economic growth is not an optimal solution ^{[13, p. 144]}.

The number of people employed plays a significant role in economic growth, especially in the context of a changing economic development model. To accelerate economic growth, it is important to transform labor into human capital. With the development of the economy, human capital becomes a key growth factor, especially significant contributions are made by highly qualified specialists with higher education and higher. Therefore, it is necessary to fully utilize the potential of human capital to promote high-quality economic growth.

Migration and mobility of the population have an impact not only on economic development, but also on other aspects of society. Migration of students to colleges leads to a decrease in the proportion of the population with higher education and higher in regional employment statistics, which leads to an increase in the gap compared to the national average. This phenomenon hinders the development of the regional economy.

The maximum involvement of public associations and social organizations, the promotion of agricultural mechanization and the support of the unattended population are important for ensuring social stability and economic development of the region. These measures help to reduce social tensions and improve the quality of life of vulnerable groups, such as children and elderly people left unattended. Mechanization of agriculture increases productivity and efficiency, which contributes to economic growth and reduces poverty in rural areas. It is also important to maintain local labor resources in order to prevent excessive migration from rural areas to cities, which also contributes to the stable development of the regional and national economy.

This is important for the unsupervised population, including children and the elderly, who need support and care. Rural residents also benefit from the mechanization of agriculture and the improvement of their economic situation. For regional and national economies, these measures contribute to increased productivity and sustainable development. Public associations and social organizations, by providing assistance and access to basic services, play a key role in supporting these groups and improving their quality of life.

To support and develop public associations and social organizations, it is necessary to provide grants and subsidies, organize training and advanced training of employees, as well as create platforms for the exchange of experience and coordination of actions. The promotion of agricultural mechanization requires investments in modern technologies and equipment, access to preferential loans and subsidies, as well as training farmers in new farming methods. Support for the unattended population includes the development of social protection and assistance programs, the creation of day care centers and access to medical and educational services. It is also important to develop infrastructure in rural and remote areas, ensure access to quality public services and promote family reunification.

It is necessary to support urbanization through the development and implementation of strategic plans for the development of cities and rural settlements, which include investments in infrastructure, job creation and improvement of living conditions. It is important to develop transportation systems to provide easy access to urban centers, as well as to build affordable housing for new urban residents. The introduction of vocational training and retraining programs for rural people will help them adapt to urban conditions and find work. It is also necessary to stimulate the development of small and medium-sized businesses in cities to create new jobs and maintain economic activity.

Of course, urbanization has both its positive and negative effects. Among the positive effects are an increase in economic growth, an improvement in the quality of life, and an increase in technological progress. Among the negative ones are overpopulation, environmental problems, which is a rather acute problem in some regions of China. Also, the negative effects should include rural depopulation, which we can observe in the northeast of China. Access to public services can be ensured by developing infrastructure and creating an evenly distributed network of medical, educational and social institutions. It is necessary to build new schools, hospitals and cultural centers in places with an increasing population. It is important to introduce digital technologies to improve access to services, such as telemedicine and online education. The State should provide subsidies and grants to support these institutions, especially in remote and less developed areas. The development of public transport and the improvement of the road network also play a key role in ensuring access to public services, allowing people to easily reach the necessary institutions.

Conclusion

The conclusion of the study identifies serious economic problems faced by northeast China. Depletion of resources, excess production capacity, insufficient economic growth and a significant economic downturn are initiated by historical and geographical factors. These difficulties have led to a marked stagnation in the development of the population, especially in recent decades, when the trend towards population decline has intensified.

Population outflow is a characteristic feature of northeastern China, showing regional imbalance. With the exception of some prefectural-level cities such as Shenyang, Dalian and Changchun, all others have a steady outflow of population. Especially high outflow rates were noted in the cities of Suihua and Daxinganling in Heilongjiang Province, where the level exceeds previous years by 30%. There is also a significant decrease in the population in the border areas of the northeast, where the level of decline reaches a fifth.

It is predicted that the population of northeast China will continue to decline steadily. The birth rate in the region has decreased significantly, which, combined with the accelerating outflow of population, requires effective measures to slow down the decline.

The outflow of population from the northeast of China is increasing both in quantitative and qualitative aspects. The region has become a significant source of net outflow of population, where more than two million people are leaving their homes. This trend has been increasing every year since 2010, with the level of education and youth of the departing population significantly exceeding those who come to the region.

Northeast China is also facing an aging population caused by the outflow of youth, which accelerates its demographic aging. There are significant differences in the level of education between the outgoing and incoming populations, which can lead to a loss of human capital. Net population outflow and migration are the dominant features of demographic trends in the northeast, with population decline in this region outpacing positive population growth in the country as a whole.

Thus, to solve these problems, an integrated approach is needed, including stimulating economic growth, improving social conditions and measures to retain human capital in the region.