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Dynamic optimization model of formation of an optimal portfolio of regional strategic projects for maximal advancement on the development of human capital
Mazelis Lev Solomonovich

Doctor of Economics

Head of the department of Mathematics and Modelling, Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service

690014, Russia, Primorskii krai, g. Vladivostok, ul. Gogolya, 41, of. 1445

lev.mazelis@vvsu.ru

 

 
Lavrenyuk Kirill Igorevich

PhD in Economics

Human Resource Director, Special Economic Zone Technopolis “Moscow”

109316, Russia, g. Moscow, Volgogradskii prospekt, 42, korp. 13, kab. 238

klavreniuk@technomoscow.ru
Krasova Elena Viktorovna

PhD in Economics

Docent, the department of Economics and Management, Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service

690014, Russia, Primorskii krai, g. Vladivostok, ul. Gogolya, 41, kab. 1527

elena_krasova@rambler.ru

 

 
Krasko Andrei Aleksandrovich

Assistant, the department of Mathematics and Modeling, Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service

690014, Russia, Primorskii krai, g. Vladivostok, ul. Gogolya, 41, of. 1445

andrey.krasko@vvsu.ru

 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2454-0730.2019.4.31874

Review date:

10-02-2020


Publish date:

03-03-2020


Abstract.

This study is conducted within the framework of a relevant scientific research objective consisting in the accumulation and development of regional human capital. In the conditions of uncertainty, risks and resource scarcity, the regional authorities are facing the task of optimal distribution of the budget between strategic projects, which exert direct or indirect influence upon the development of regional human capital. On the example of Primorksy Krai, the goal of this research consists in structuring and approbation of a dynamic optimization model for formation of an optimal portfolio of regional strategic projects form maximally efficient development of human capital in the region. The authors develop a dynamic model in form of a task of a mathematical programming and describing the impact of regional strategic projects upon the human capital indexes in the region. As the target function, the work uses weighted average of the degree of meeting the objective value of regional human capital development indexes on the examined horizon of planning. The functional dependence of human capital indexes upon the volume and structure of investments, forming from the regional budgetary and private spending on the implementation of the projects and ensuring procedural activity on the regional level, serve as lagged econometric models. Variables for conducting optimization are represented by the Boolean variables of inclusion of the project by one or another vector of investing into the project portfolio in a particular moment in time. The optimal portfolio of strategic projects is proposed in annual dynamics, based on the results of the modeling and quantitative calculations made on the example of Primorsky Krai. Such portfolio provides for maximal efficiency in reaching objective values of development of the regional human capital indexes.

Keywords: regional level, project portfolio, economic and mathematical modeling, optimization model, mathematical programming, regional development, regional budget investment, strategic projects, human capital, dynamic model
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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