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A.M. Lushkin Technology of automated risk-measurement of functional reliability of ergatic system operators

Abstract: The issues of accounting for human factor in complex ergatic (man-machine) system function management, without sufficient (insufficient for statistic prognosis) data on extraordinary (emergency) situations brought on by the human factor, as well as data on the preconditions for the development of such situations, form the subject of this research. The author attempts to solve the problem of evaluating the probability of an event that is important for ergatic system management (taking human factor characteristics into account), that was not being observed during the timeframe being studied. The research methodology is based on the “man-machine” system operator functional state theory, the probability theory, as well as mathematical statistics. The novelty of this research is appraisal of functional reliability of the prediction process for pilot reliability, accounting for probability of piloting parameters exceeding operating restrictions in flight, as it is realized in the automated flight risk management system. The results of this research are general in nature, allowing them to be used for adaptive control of any ergatic system functioning.

Keywords:

human factor accounting, ergatic system management, human functional reliability, acceptable risk concept, system condition management, statistical prognosis, operational limits accounting, ergatic systems reliability, preventive risk management, safety monitoring

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