'Diagnostics and scenario analysis of the external threats to regional security' National Security / nota bene nbpublish.com
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Shultz V.L., Kulba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Diagnostics and scenario analysis of the external threats to regional security

Published in journal "National Security / nota bene", 2014-5 in rubric "Technologies and methodology of systems of security.", pages 626-664.

Resume: This work is dedicated to the methodological and applied issues of improving the processes of managing regional security under the conditions of aggravated antagonism between nations of the West and Russia, as well as the instability of the world economy. It presents a diagnostic methodology, structural analysis and evaluation of the main threats to national security. We will examine the issues of countermeasures towards the destructive information influences, built upon disinformation and manipulation technologies. This article demonstrates the results of an analysis of the key aspects of the processes of regional security management. It goes over the mechanisms of using scenario analysis in managing the social and economic development of a region and providing protection to social stability from the external and internal threats. We look at the results of scenario research of the developed multigraph models of managing regional security. In order to solve the entirety of the problems at hand, the article offers a methodological approach, which is based on the modeling and advanced scenario analysis of the processes of a situation progression within the regional social and economic systems, as well as in the external environment. Its main advantage is the ability to: assess the level of vulnerability of social and economic systems influenced by the external and internal threats to the regional security; conduct a complex analysis of a particular regions situation within any given timeframe; form a short-term and long-term prognoses of its development; evaluate the effectiveness and concurrence of the multiple, spread across time and space strategic and tactical management solutions for achieving the set goals under the conditions of ambiguity. The article shows that the effectiveness of the countermeasures for the emerging threats to regional security from geopolitical enemies of the Russian Federation, as well as internal sources of vulnerability that they have created and financed, depends on creation and widespread use of complex mechanisms that would provide a coordinated solution to at least two basic sets of tasks: ensuring a stable social and economic development of a region, and its protection from the external and internal informational threats to the social stability.

Keywords: regional security, social stability, diagnostics of threats, management, informational influence, scenario analysis, imitational modeling, symbol graphs, management decisions, threat countermeasures.

DOI: 10.7256/2073-8560.2014.5.13061

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