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Korobeinikov A.G., Pirozhnikova O.I. Model of mathematical calculations of the probability of unauthorized physical penetration to information assets

Published in journal "Software systems and computational methods", 2014-2 in rubric "Forms and methods of information security administration", pages 160-165.

Resume: according to the current state standards, ôsecurity of information assetsö combines protection of four types: physical, technical, legal and cryptographic. This implies that it is a complex concept. Furthermore, in accordance with regulatory documents, protective actions for providing information security are subdivided into organizational and technical measures. Technical protective actions directed at such functions as restricting threats, deterrence, prevention, detection, notification of various events at the facility of informatization, monitoring the state of information assets, error correction, asset recovery system etc. Analysis of the current state of methods and means for the alarm system, which is the most important component of complex system of information security, showed that such systems need to be constantly improved to meet the constantly raising requirements for protection of modern objects of information. Hence it follows that development of mathematical models for calculating the probabilities of unauthorized physical penetration to information assets, forming the integrated system of information security, is an urgent task. To solve the presented problem the article uses methods of information protection, theory of graphs and probability theory. The presented results were obtained using the Maple system of computer algebra. Scientific novelty is in the methods being based on the graph theory and mathematical model of calculating the probability of unauthorized physical penetration to information assets. The model itself is built in three stages on the base of on the specific source data from the estimation of the probability of detecting an unauthorized physical penetration to information assets by alarm system.

Keywords: neograf, acyclic graph, unauthorized physical penetration, technical protection measures, protection of the information assets, orgraph, adjacency matrix, weight matrix, Dijkstra algorithm, ˝omposition of probabilities

DOI: 10.7256/2305-6061.2014.2.12504

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