Abstract: This article analyzes the consequences of dismantling of the political regimes in the countries of Middle East and Ukraine. As a result of color revolutions, the author notes the escalation within the aforementioned region of the socioeconomic difficulties and problems related to the domestic policy, as well as the global problems of world terrorism and uncontrolled mass migration. It is pointed out that the government overthrows, marked as color revolutions, are organized with the active participation of the countries of Anglo-Saxon political alliance, primarily under the leadership of the United States. The threat of spreading the extremist and fascist ideologies allows stating the fact that overcoming the consequences of color revolutions significantly affects the direction of the Russia’s foreign policy. The defining role of Russia in stabilizing the conflicts in the Middle East and post-Soviet space is evident. The real political actions in Syria and southeastern Ukraine let us claiming that Russia is the only country that conducts constructive policy aimed at stabilization of political situation in these regions. The author also proposes recommendations on regulation of the Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Keywords: Geopolitics, Russia, World politics, U. S. foreign policy, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, “color revolutions”

References:
Byshok S. Evromaydan imeni Stepany Bandery: Ot demokratii k diktature / S. Byshok A. Kochetkov. – M.: Knizhnyy mir, FRIGO «Narodnaya diplomatiya», 2014. – 512 s.
Manoylo A.V. Paradigmy upravleniya mezhdunarodnymi konfliktami: konkurentsiya ili konfrontatsiya. // Natsional'naya bezopasnost' / nota bene. 2011. ¹ 5. S. 135-142.
Dzhabarov M.V. Vstupitel'noe slovo V. M. Dzhabarova – pervogo zamestitelya predsedatelya Komiteta Soveta Federatsii po mezhdunarodnym delam, chlena pravleniya Integratsionnogo kluba pri Predsedatele Soveta Federatsii // Analiticheskiy vestnik. 2015. ¹ 16 (569). Aktual'nye voprosy vneshney politiki rossiyskoy Federatsii (k «pravitel'stvennomu chasu» 374 zasedaniya SFFSRF 25 maya 2015 g.). S. 5–7.
Glaz'ev S. Yu. Ukrainskaya katastrofa: ot amerikanskoy agressii k mirovoy voyne? / S. Yu. Glaz'ev. – M.: Knizhnyy mir, 2015. – 352 s.
Korovin, V. M. Konets proekta «Ukraina» / V. M. Korovin. – SPb.: Piter, 2015. – 256 s.
Zayavlenie Komiteta obshchestvennoy podderzhki zhiteley Yugo-Vostoka Ukrainy ot 11 iyunya 2015 g.: ofits. tekst [Elektronnyy resurs] // Ofitsial'nyy resurs Soveta Federatsii Federal'nogo Sobraniya Rossiyskoy Federatsii. – Rezhim dostupa: http://council.gov.ru/media/files/41d560efb3d0112792d8.pdf, svobodnyy. – Zagl. s ekrana.
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Kommentariy ofitsial'nogo predstavitelya MID Rossii M. V. Zakharovoy otnositel'no koordinatsii usiliy po bor'be s IGIL // Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Ofitsial'nyy sayt. URL: http://www.mid.ru/web/guest/foreign_policy/international_safety/conflicts/-/asset_publisher/xIEMTQ3OvzcA/content/id/1831095.
Fursov, A. I. Kholodnyy vostochnyy veter russkoy vesny / A. I. Fursov. – M.: Knizhnyy mir, 2015. – 320 s.
Glaz'ev S. Yu. Ob eskalatsii mezhdunarodnoy voenno-politicheskoy napryazhennosti i neobkhodimykh deystviyakh Rossii / S. Yu. Glaz'ev // Analiticheskiy vestnik. 2015. ¹ 16 (569). Aktual'nye voprosy vneshney politiki rossiyskoy Federatsii (k «pravitel'stvennomu chasu» 374 zasedaniya SFFSRF 25 maya 2015 g.). S. 30–45.
Interv'yu Ministra inostrannykh del Rossii S. V. Lavrova programme «Voskresnoe Vremya», 13 sentyabrya 2015 g. [Elektronnyy resurs] // Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Ofitsial'nyy sayt. – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/1744777, svobodnyy. – Zagl. s ekrana.

References (transliteration):
Byshok S. Evromaydan imeni Stepany Bandery: Ot demokratii k diktature / S. Byshok A. Kochetkov. – M.: Knizhnyy mir, FRIGO «Narodnaya diplomatiya», 2014. – 512 s.
Manoylo A.V. Paradigmy upravleniya mezhdunarodnymi konfliktami: konkurentsiya ili konfrontatsiya. // Natsional'naya bezopasnost' / nota bene. 2011. ¹ 5. S. 135-142.
Dzhabarov M.V. Vstupitel'noe slovo V. M. Dzhabarova – pervogo zamestitelya predsedatelya Komiteta Soveta Federatsii po mezhdunarodnym delam, chlena pravleniya Integratsionnogo kluba pri Predsedatele Soveta Federatsii // Analiticheskiy vestnik. 2015. ¹ 16 (569). Aktual'nye voprosy vneshney politiki rossiyskoy Federatsii (k «pravitel'stvennomu chasu» 374 zasedaniya SFFSRF 25 maya 2015 g.). S. 5–7.
Glaz'ev S. Yu. Ukrainskaya katastrofa: ot amerikanskoy agressii k mirovoy voyne? / S. Yu. Glaz'ev. – M.: Knizhnyy mir, 2015. – 352 s.
Korovin, V. M. Konets proekta «Ukraina» / V. M. Korovin. – SPb.: Piter, 2015. – 256 s.
Zayavlenie Komiteta obshchestvennoy podderzhki zhiteley Yugo-Vostoka Ukrainy ot 11 iyunya 2015 g.: ofits. tekst [Elektronnyy resurs] // Ofitsial'nyy resurs Soveta Federatsii Federal'nogo Sobraniya Rossiyskoy Federatsii. – Rezhim dostupa: http://council.gov.ru/media/files/41d560efb3d0112792d8.pdf, svobodnyy. – Zagl. s ekrana.
Minoborony: VKS RF unichtozhili shtab upravleniya formirovaniyami IG v Sirii [Elektronnyy resurs] // IA REGNUM. – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1982211.html, svobodnyy. – Zagl. s ekrana.
Kommentariy ofitsial'nogo predstavitelya MID Rossii M. V. Zakharovoy otnositel'no koordinatsii usiliy po bor'be s IGIL // Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Ofitsial'nyy sayt. URL: http://www.mid.ru/web/guest/foreign_policy/international_safety/conflicts/-/asset_publisher/xIEMTQ3OvzcA/content/id/1831095.
Fursov, A. I. Kholodnyy vostochnyy veter russkoy vesny / A. I. Fursov. – M.: Knizhnyy mir, 2015. – 320 s.
Glaz'ev S. Yu. Ob eskalatsii mezhdunarodnoy voenno-politicheskoy napryazhennosti i neobkhodimykh deystviyakh Rossii / S. Yu. Glaz'ev // Analiticheskiy vestnik. 2015. ¹ 16 (569). Aktual'nye voprosy vneshney politiki rossiyskoy Federatsii (k «pravitel'stvennomu chasu» 374 zasedaniya SFFSRF 25 maya 2015 g.). S. 30–45.
Interv'yu Ministra inostrannykh del Rossii S. V. Lavrova programme «Voskresnoe Vremya», 13 sentyabrya 2015 g. [Elektronnyy resurs] // Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Ofitsial'nyy sayt. – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/1744777, svobodnyy. – Zagl. s ekrana.

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to discover and analyze the major, aggregated and measurable factors that define a state’s or region’s security levels. Factors that impact national security (population and its structure, territory, technology level), are studied in order to build a mathematical model for regional, national and global security. In order to evaluate the model’s parameters and its verification, the author employs historical, statistical and analytical data that characterize the security of a state or region: population numbers and composition, territory size, social and economic characteristics, innovation index, etc. Along with the basic model, the author composed a dynamic model that reflects the changes in security, depending on ethnic growth, or reduction in population numbers, as well as affected by technological development. Using the systemic, axiological and historical approaches, and methods of mathematical modeling, the author formulated criteria for national and regional security that reflect the dichotomy of two values: sovereignty (abilities and capabilities for self-realization and freedom) and preservation (order, convenience, comfort). In the conception of this model the author uses the production function and the Pareto distribution. The model parameter evaluation is performed, based on Russian Federation’s statistical data, as well as historical and statistical security data for World War I participant countries. On the example of Austrian-Hungarian Empire’s dissolution, and based on the results of calculations, the author formulates the following hypothesis: Preservation levels of 0.4-0.6 is an indicator for possible dissolution of a large, multinational state.

Keywords: security, national security, regional security, geopolitics, sovereignty, mathematical model, security criteria, function of sovereignty, function of preservation, technological factor.

References:
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References (transliteration):
ABERKROMBI N., KhILL S., TERNER B. Sotsiologicheskiy Slovar'. 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. / Per. s angl. I.G. Yasaveeva, pod red. S.A. Erofeeva. – M.: Ekonomika, 2004. – 620 s.
AKAEV A.A., MALKOV S.Yu. Geopoliticheskaya dinamika: vozmozhnosti logiko-matematicheskogo modelirovaniya // Geopolitika i bezopasnost', 2009. – ¹ 4 (8). – S. 39-55.
ALEKSEEV V. V., NEFEDOV S. A. Tekhnologicheskaya interpretatsiya istorii vtoroy mirovoy voyny // Rossiya v KhKh veke. Voyna 1941-1945 godov. Sovremennye podkhody. – M., 2005. – S. 410-422.
Bol'shaya sovetskaya entsiklopediya: V 30 t. – M.: Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, 1969–1978.
VINOKUROV G.N., KONYaKhIN B.A., PODKORYTOV Yu.A. Geopoliticheskiy status Kitaya kak faktor rossiyskoy politiki yadernogo sderzhivaniya Soedinennykh Shtatov // Strategicheskaya stabil'nost', 2008. ¹ 2. – S. 49-53.
Vsesoyuznaya perepis' naseleniya 1939 goda: osnovnye itogi. – M.: Nauka, 1992. – 254 s.
GUMILEV L.N. Etnogenez i biosfera Zemli / Pod red. V.S. Zhekulina. – 2-e izd. ispr. i dop. – L.: Izd-vo LGU, 1989. – 496 s.
DMITRIEV T. «Ne voz'mu nikogo, krome russkikh, ukraintsev i belorusov»: natsional'noe voennoe stroitel'stvo v SSSR 1920—1930-kh gg. i ego ispytanie «ognem i mechom» v gody Velikoy Otechestvennoy voyny. [Elektronnaya publikatsiya]. – URL: http://www.apn.ru/publications/print29935.htm (data obrashcheniya – 30.07.14).
ELISEEVA I.I., POPOVA I.N. Nachalo mezhdunarodnogo priznaniya rossiyskoy gosudarstvennoy statistiki // Voprosy statistiki, 2013. ¹ 8. – S. 80-85.
EROFEEV N.A. Imperiya sozdavalas' tak. Angliyskiy kolonializm v XVIII veke. – M.: Nauka, 1964. – 117 s.
EFIMOV A.V. Iz istorii velikikh russkikh geograficheskikh otkrytiy. – M.: Uchpedgiz, 1949. – 150 s.
DAL' V.I. Tolkovyy slovar' zhivogo velikorusskogo yazyka: v 4 t. – Spb., 1863-1866.
KADOMTsEV B.P. Professional'nyy i sotsial'nyy sostav naseleniya Evropeyskoy Rossii: po dannym perepisi 1897 goda: (kritiko-statisticheskiy etyud) / B. P. Kadomtsev. – SPb.: Tipografiya Shredera, 1909. – 110 s.
KENETOVA R.O., NAKhUShEV A.M. K matematicheskomu modelirovaniyu vnutrietnicheskoy evolyutsii // Trudy FORA, 1997. ¹ 2. – S. 31-34.
KOROBITsYN V.V., FROLOVA Yu.V. Matematicheskaya model' razvitiya etnicheskikh grupp // Matematicheskie struktury i modelirovanie, 2008. Vyp. 18. – S. 31-42.
LENIN V.I. «Sozhalenie» i «styd» // Polnoe sobranie sochineniy. 5-e izd-e. T. 20. – M.: Politizdat, 1973. – S. 245.
LIVI BAChChI M. Demograficheskaya istoriya Evropy. Per. s ital. A. Mirolyubovoy. – SPb.: Aleksandriya, 2010. – 310 s.
L'VOV D. S., GLAZ'EV S. E. Teoreticheskie i prikladnye aspekty upravleniya nauchno-tekhnicheskim progressom// Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody,1987. T. 23. Vyp. 5. – S. 793-804.
LOPATNIKOV S. Mogushchestvo est' svoboda. [Elektronnaya publikatsiya]. – URL: http://www.contrtv.ru/common/1711/ (data obrashcheniya – 30.07.2014 g.).
LUR'E S.V. Istoricheskaya etnologiya: uchebnik. 2-e izd. – M.: Aspekt Press, 1998. – 448 s.
MAKIAVELLI N. Gosudar'. – M.: Planeta, 1990. – 80 s.
MALKOV S.Yu. Nelineynaya dinamika nelineynogo mira // Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009. – ¹ 8. – S. 43-51.
MASLOU A. Po napravleniyu k psikhologii bytiya / A. Maslou. – M.: Izd-vo: EKSMO-Press, 2002. – 272 s.
Mirovaya voyna v tsifrakh. – M., L.: Gos. voen. izdat., 1934. – 128 s.
NEFEDOV S. A. Kontseptsiya demograficheskikh tsiklov. – Ekaterinburg: Izdatel'stvo UGGU, 2007. – 141 s.
NEFEDOV S. A. Faktornyy analiz istoricheskogo protsessa. Istoriya Vostoka. – M.: «Territoriya budushchego», 2008. – 752 s.
NIKITIN V.A. Organizatsionnye tipy sovremennoy kul'tury: Avtoreferat diss. d-ra kul'turologii. – Tol'yatti, 1998. – 49 s.
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Abstract: The article concerns main specific features of the planning and administration processes in emergency situations (ES). The authors establish and solve the problem of optimal planning of preventive measures against emergency situations in a region, which includes choice of a complex of arrangements in order to prevent (to exclude the causes of appearance and lower the gravity of the consequences of its development) of emergency situations. The authors offer to use the following efficiency criteria: possible human losses, amount of material harm caused by ES, or amount of summary costs for the involvement of forces and means in order to implement preventive measures and to prevent an emergency situation. The problem is reduced to the integral (Boolean) programming, and it may be resolved by standard means. The authors provide formalized methods for problem-solving within operative processes planning for prevention and liquidation of consequences of emergency situations of various types. The authors evaluate a complex of issues regarding higher efficiency of use of temporal, resource-based, structural and technological, natural - climatic, environmental and physiological reserves in order to solve the problems of operative management in emergency situations. The authors solve the problem of minimizing maximal period of time for the complex of emergency rescue and other emergency works at the management objects with the limitation of the amount of final losses, harms and costs of using necessary means and forces. The results of problem solving allows the regional administrative bodies go have a basic prevention plan for the actions in case of appearance and development of an emergency situation in accordance with the formed regional scenario and the relevant graph of causes and effects in emergency situation. The problem belongs to the class of problems of integral programming. The authors provide the results of efficiency analysis for the use of scenario approach in order to solve planning and administration problems in an emergency situation. It is shown that the widely ranged application of normative basis in the process of scenario analysis guarantees the possibility for a complex approach to resolving administrative problems in order to prevent and liquidate the consequences of an emergency situation, since it allows simultaneous evaluation of interrelated and principally different events and processes. It allows providing efficient provision for factors and threats of terrorist, fire, radiation, chemical, energetic, environmental challenges to security within a single scenario model.

Keywords: security, planning, administration, scenario analysis, imitation model, forecast, threat, emergency situation, harm, reserve.

Contact information: Kulba, Vladimir Vasilievich, Russia, 117997, Moskva, Profsoyuznaya ul. d.65

References:
1. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Metody planirovaniya i upravleniya tekhnogennoy bezopasnost'yu na osnove stsenarnogo podkhoda // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'/Nota Bene. – 2013, ¹2 (25).
2. Arkhipova N.I., Kul'ba V.V., Kosyachenko S.A., Chankhieva F.Yu., Shelkov A.B. Organizatsionnoe upravlenie. – M.: Izd-vo RGGU, 2007.
3. Informatsionnoe obespechenie sistem organizatsionnogo upravleniya (teoreticheskie osnovy). V 3-kh chastyakh. Chast' 1. Metodologicheskie osnovy organizatsionnogo upravleniya. / Pod red. E.A. Mikrina i V.V. Kul'by.-M.: Izd-vo fiz.-mat. lit., 2011.
4. Modeli i metody analiza i sinteza stsenariev razvitiya sotsial'no–ekonomicheskikh sistem: v 2-kh kn. / pod red. V.L. Shul'tsa i V.V. Kul'by. – M.: Nauka, 2012.
5. Kul'ba V.V., Kononov D.A., Kosyachenko S.A., Shubin A.N. Metody formirovaniya stsenariev razvitiya sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem. – M.: SINTEG, 2004.
6. Kononov D.A., Kul'ba V.V., Kovalevskiy S.S., Kosyachenko S.A. Formirovanie stsenarnykh prostranstv i analiz dinamiki povedeniya sotsial'no – ekonomicheskikh sistem. / Nauchnoe izdanie. – M.: IPU RAN, 1999.
7. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Metody stsenarnogo analiza ugroz effektivnomu funktsionirovaniyu sistem organizatsionnogo upravleniya. // Trendy i upravlenie/Nota Bene, 2013, ¹ 1.
8. Vladimirov V.A., Vorob'ev Yu.L., Malinetskiy G.G., i dr. Upravlenie riskom. Risk, ustoychivoe razvitie, sinergetika. – M.: Nauka, 2000.
9. Malinetskiy G.G., Mitin N.A., Akhromeeva T.S. i dr. Kognitivnye tsentry kak instrument upravleniya bezopasnost'yu slozhnykh sistem // Trudy XX Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii po problemam upravleniya bezopasnost'yu slozhnykh sistem.-M.: IPU RAN. 2012.
10. Sergienko I.V. Matematicheskie modeli i metody resheniya zadach diskretnoy optimizatsii. ? Kiev: Nauk. dumka, 1988
11. V.L. Shul'ts Stsenarnyy analiz v upravlenii sotsial'noy bezopasnost'yu // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2012. - 6. - C. 4 - 21.
12. V.L. Shul'ts, V.V. Kul'ba, A.B. Shelkov, I.V. Chernov Metody stsenarnogo analiza ugroz effektivnomu funktsionirovaniyu sistem organizatsionnogo upravleniya // Trendy i upravlenie. - 2013. - 1. - C. 6 - 30. DOI: 10.7256/2307-9118.2013.01.2.
13. Yu. P. Lipuntsov Upravlenie identifikatsiey v elektronnom gosudarstve: bezopasnost' dannykh i neprikosnovennost' chastnoy zhizni // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2011. - 6. - C. 18 - 27.
14. V. V. Tsyganov, V. A. Borodin, G. B. Shishkin O modernizatsii sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2012. - 1. - C. 15 - 26.
15. A. V. Tsaregorodtsev, A. K. Kachko Odin iz podkhodov k upravleniyu informatsionnoy bezopasnost'yu pri razrabotke informatsionnoy infrastruktury organizatsii // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2012. - 1. - C. 46 - 59.

References (transliteration):
1. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Metody planirovaniya i upravleniya tekhnogennoy bezopasnost'yu na osnove stsenarnogo podkhoda // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'/Nota Bene. – 2013, ¹2 (25).
2. Arkhipova N.I., Kul'ba V.V., Kosyachenko S.A., Chankhieva F.Yu., Shelkov A.B. Organizatsionnoe upravlenie. – M.: Izd-vo RGGU, 2007.
3. Informatsionnoe obespechenie sistem organizatsionnogo upravleniya (teoreticheskie osnovy). V 3-kh chastyakh. Chast' 1. Metodologicheskie osnovy organizatsionnogo upravleniya. / Pod red. E.A. Mikrina i V.V. Kul'by.-M.: Izd-vo fiz.-mat. lit., 2011.
4. Modeli i metody analiza i sinteza stsenariev razvitiya sotsial'no–ekonomicheskikh sistem: v 2-kh kn. / pod red. V.L. Shul'tsa i V.V. Kul'by. – M.: Nauka, 2012.
5. Kul'ba V.V., Kononov D.A., Kosyachenko S.A., Shubin A.N. Metody formirovaniya stsenariev razvitiya sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem. – M.: SINTEG, 2004.
6. Kononov D.A., Kul'ba V.V., Kovalevskiy S.S., Kosyachenko S.A. Formirovanie stsenarnykh prostranstv i analiz dinamiki povedeniya sotsial'no – ekonomicheskikh sistem. / Nauchnoe izdanie. – M.: IPU RAN, 1999.
7. Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Metody stsenarnogo analiza ugroz effektivnomu funktsionirovaniyu sistem organizatsionnogo upravleniya. // Trendy i upravlenie/Nota Bene, 2013, ¹ 1.
8. Vladimirov V.A., Vorob'ev Yu.L., Malinetskiy G.G., i dr. Upravlenie riskom. Risk, ustoychivoe razvitie, sinergetika. – M.: Nauka, 2000.
9. Malinetskiy G.G., Mitin N.A., Akhromeeva T.S. i dr. Kognitivnye tsentry kak instrument upravleniya bezopasnost'yu slozhnykh sistem // Trudy XX Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii po problemam upravleniya bezopasnost'yu slozhnykh sistem.-M.: IPU RAN. 2012.
10. Sergienko I.V. Matematicheskie modeli i metody resheniya zadach diskretnoy optimizatsii. ? Kiev: Nauk. dumka, 1988
11. V.L. Shul'ts Stsenarnyy analiz v upravlenii sotsial'noy bezopasnost'yu // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2012. - 6. - C. 4 - 21.
12. V.L. Shul'ts, V.V. Kul'ba, A.B. Shelkov, I.V. Chernov Metody stsenarnogo analiza ugroz effektivnomu funktsionirovaniyu sistem organizatsionnogo upravleniya // Trendy i upravlenie. - 2013. - 1. - C. 6 - 30. DOI: 10.7256/2307-9118.2013.01.2.
13. Yu. P. Lipuntsov Upravlenie identifikatsiey v elektronnom gosudarstve: bezopasnost' dannykh i neprikosnovennost' chastnoy zhizni // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2011. - 6. - C. 18 - 27.
14. V. V. Tsyganov, V. A. Borodin, G. B. Shishkin O modernizatsii sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2012. - 1. - C. 15 - 26.
15. A. V. Tsaregorodtsev, A. K. Kachko Odin iz podkhodov k upravleniyu informatsionnoy bezopasnost'yu pri razrabotke informatsionnoy infrastruktury organizatsii // Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. - 2012. - 1. - C. 46 - 59.