Abstract: This research is focused on the processes of situational medical analysis and prediction, which is characterized by uncertainty and, in many cases, is impacted by a lack of retrospective statistical information, which would allow to build adequate mathematical prediction models. The abovementioned issues substantiate the necessity for solving the problem at hand, with the help of experts who are capable of producing quality predictions on the basis of rich professional experience in solving such problems. The author produces a scientifically substantiated, tested situational medical prediction methodology, basing their solutions on expert assistance in the target area. The methodology of the research is based on collecting and processing expert information theory, medical IT and medical statistics. The emergence of a methodological base for situational medical prognosis as a system of stages of factological data and expert judgment processing is the main result of this research. The decision-making assistance system, based on the real-time process and analysis of the existing situation, combined with generated variants of sanitary and hygienic monitoring, assists with prediction of disease spread and charting the situation, calculation of personnel and materiel requirements for realizing treatment and prophylactic procedure complexes, and reaching adequate administrative decisions.

Keywords: situational medical situation, mathematical prognosis, expert information prognosis, medical IT, medical prognosis, health administration, administrative decisions, uncertainty predictions, multi-stage expertise, decision-making support

References:
Kukushkin Yu.A., Usov V.M., Bogomolov A.V. Avtomatizirovannoe otsenivanie riska narusheniy sostoyaniya zdorov'ya cheloveka s pomoshch'yu komp'yuternykh voprosnikov na osnove nechetkoy logiki // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2002. № 10. S. 44.
Ushakov I.B., Bogomolov A.V. Informatizatsiya programm personifitsirovannoy adaptatsionnoy meditsiny // Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii meditsinskikh nauk. №5-6, 2014. S. 124-128.
Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V. Method of synthesis of the psychophysiological stress index of operators // Biomedical Engineering. 2001. Vol. 35. № 4. Pp. 207-210.
Gridin L.A., Bobrovnitskiy I.P., Bogomolov A.V. Vozmozhnosti ranney avtomatizirovannoy diagnostiki arterial'noy gipertenzii // Vrach. 2001. № 1. S. 29.
Ushakov I.B., Bogomolov A.V., Kukushkin Yu.A. Tekhnologiya avtomatizirovannoy sindromnoy diagnostiki zabolevaniy na osnove trekhznachnoy logiki // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2003. № 7. S. 34.
Golosovskiy M.S. Model' zhiznennogo tsikla razrabotki programmnogo obespecheniya v ramkakh nauchno-issledovatel'skikh rabot // Avtomatizatsiya i sovremennye tekhnologii. 2014. № 1. S. 43-46.
Bogomolov A.V., Maistrov A.I. Theoretical-experimental analysis of convergence of heart rate variability spectral measures estimated via heart rate and heart period signals // Biomedical Engineering. 2009. Vol. 43. № 2. Pp. 75-80.
Bogomolov A.V. Kontseptsiya matematicheskogo obespecheniya diagnostiki sostoyaniya cheloveka // Informatika i sistemy upravleniya. 2008. № 2 (16). S. 11-13.
Fedorov M.V., Kalinin K.M., Bogomolov A.V., Stetsyuk A.N. Matematicheskaya model' avtomatizirovannogo kontrolya vypolneniya meropriyatiy v organakh voennogo upravleniya // Informatsionno-izmeritel'nye i upravlyayushchie sistemy. 2011. T. 9. № 5. S. 46-54.
Maksimov I.B., Stolyar V.P., Kozhevnikova L.B. Metod Del'fi: teoriya i predlozheniya po primeneniyu v zdravookhranenii i voennoy meditsine // Voenno-meditsinskiy zhurnal. 2012. T. 333. № 4. S. 14-17.
Kozlov V.E., Bogomolov A.V., Rudakov S.V., Olenchenko V.T. Matematicheskoe obespechenie obrabotki reytingovoy informatsii v zadachakh ekspertnogo otsenivaniya // Mir izmereniy. 2012. № 9. S. 42-49.
Bogomolov A.V., Maystrov A.I. Tekhnologiya analiza sistemnykh prichinno-sledstvennykh svyazey na osnove diagramm Isikavy // Sistemnyy analiz v meditsine (SAM 2014): Materialy VIII mezhdunarodnoy nauchnoy konferentsii. Blagoveshchensk, 2014. S. 13-16.
Ushakov I.B., Ponomarenko V.A., Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V. Avtomatizirovannye sistemy dlya kontrolya sostoyaniya spetsialistov opasnykh professiy // Bezopasnost' zhiznedeyatel'nosti. 2005. № 10 (prilozhenie). 24 s.
Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V., Ushakov I.B. Matematicheskoe obespechenie otsenivaniya sostoyaniya material'nykh sistem // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2004. № 7 (prilozhenie). 32 s.
Vorona A.A., Gerasimenko V.D., Kozlovskiy E.A., Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V. Mediko-psikhologicheskoe prognozirovanie professional'noy gotovnosti vypusknika voenno-uchebnogo zavedeniya // Voenno-meditsinskiy zhurnal. 2012. T. 333. № 1. S. 40-44.
Bogomolov A.V., Zueva T.V., Chikova S.S., Golosovskiy M.S. Ekspertno–analiticheskoe obosnovanie prioritetnykh napravleniy sovershenstvovaniya sistemy preduprezhdeniya biologicheskikh terroristicheskikh aktov // Informatika i sistemy upravleniya. 2009. № 4. S. 134–136.
Maistrou A.I., Bogomolov A.V. Technology of automated medical diagnostics using fuzzy linguistic variables and consensus ranking methods // IFMBE Proceedings World Congress on Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering: Diagnostic and Therapeutic Instrumentation, Clinical Engineering. Ser. "World Congress on Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering: Diagnostic and Therapeutic Instrumentation, Clinical Engineering" Munich, 2009. Pp. 38-41.
Bogomolov A.V., Gridin L.A., Kukushkin Yu.A., Ushakov I.B. Diagnostika sostoyaniya cheloveka: matematicheskie podkhody. M.: Meditsina, 2003. 464 s.
Shibanov G.P. Poryadok formirovaniya ekspertnykh grupp i provedeniya kollektivnoy ekspertizy // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2003. №12. S. 26-29.
Maksimov I.B., Stolyar V.P., Bogomolov A.V. Prikladnaya teoriya informatsionnogo obespecheniya mediko-biologicheskikh issledovaniy. M.: Binom, 2013. 312 s.
Bogomolov A.V., Chikova S.S., Zueva T.V., Tushnova L.K. Metodicheskoe obespechenie obosnovaniya prioritetnykh napravleniy sovershenstvovaniya sistemy preduprezhdeniya biologicheskikh terroristicheskikh aktov // Tekhnologii zhivykh sistem. 2006. T.3, № 4. S.33–42.
Kukushkin Yu.A., Vorona A.A., Bogomolov A.V., Chistov S.D. Riskometriya zdorov'ya personala ob'ektov po unichtozheniyu khimicheskogo oruzhiya // Analiz riska zdorov'yu. 2014. № 3. S. 26-33.
Bogomolov A.V., Kukushkin Yu.A. Matematicheskoe obespechenie meta-analiza rezul'tatov nezavisimykh eksperimental'nykh mediko-biologicheskikh issledovaniy // Informatika i sistemy upravleniya. 2011. № 4. S. 65-74

References (transliteration):
Kukushkin Yu.A., Usov V.M., Bogomolov A.V. Avtomatizirovannoe otsenivanie riska narusheniy sostoyaniya zdorov'ya cheloveka s pomoshch'yu komp'yuternykh voprosnikov na osnove nechetkoy logiki // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2002. № 10. S. 44.
Ushakov I.B., Bogomolov A.V. Informatizatsiya programm personifitsirovannoy adaptatsionnoy meditsiny // Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii meditsinskikh nauk. №5-6, 2014. S. 124-128.
Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V. Method of synthesis of the psychophysiological stress index of operators // Biomedical Engineering. 2001. Vol. 35. № 4. Pp. 207-210.
Gridin L.A., Bobrovnitskiy I.P., Bogomolov A.V. Vozmozhnosti ranney avtomatizirovannoy diagnostiki arterial'noy gipertenzii // Vrach. 2001. № 1. S. 29.
Ushakov I.B., Bogomolov A.V., Kukushkin Yu.A. Tekhnologiya avtomatizirovannoy sindromnoy diagnostiki zabolevaniy na osnove trekhznachnoy logiki // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2003. № 7. S. 34.
Golosovskiy M.S. Model' zhiznennogo tsikla razrabotki programmnogo obespecheniya v ramkakh nauchno-issledovatel'skikh rabot // Avtomatizatsiya i sovremennye tekhnologii. 2014. № 1. S. 43-46.
Bogomolov A.V., Maistrov A.I. Theoretical-experimental analysis of convergence of heart rate variability spectral measures estimated via heart rate and heart period signals // Biomedical Engineering. 2009. Vol. 43. № 2. Pp. 75-80.
Bogomolov A.V. Kontseptsiya matematicheskogo obespecheniya diagnostiki sostoyaniya cheloveka // Informatika i sistemy upravleniya. 2008. № 2 (16). S. 11-13.
Fedorov M.V., Kalinin K.M., Bogomolov A.V., Stetsyuk A.N. Matematicheskaya model' avtomatizirovannogo kontrolya vypolneniya meropriyatiy v organakh voennogo upravleniya // Informatsionno-izmeritel'nye i upravlyayushchie sistemy. 2011. T. 9. № 5. S. 46-54.
Maksimov I.B., Stolyar V.P., Kozhevnikova L.B. Metod Del'fi: teoriya i predlozheniya po primeneniyu v zdravookhranenii i voennoy meditsine // Voenno-meditsinskiy zhurnal. 2012. T. 333. № 4. S. 14-17.
Kozlov V.E., Bogomolov A.V., Rudakov S.V., Olenchenko V.T. Matematicheskoe obespechenie obrabotki reytingovoy informatsii v zadachakh ekspertnogo otsenivaniya // Mir izmereniy. 2012. № 9. S. 42-49.
Bogomolov A.V., Maystrov A.I. Tekhnologiya analiza sistemnykh prichinno-sledstvennykh svyazey na osnove diagramm Isikavy // Sistemnyy analiz v meditsine (SAM 2014): Materialy VIII mezhdunarodnoy nauchnoy konferentsii. Blagoveshchensk, 2014. S. 13-16.
Ushakov I.B., Ponomarenko V.A., Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V. Avtomatizirovannye sistemy dlya kontrolya sostoyaniya spetsialistov opasnykh professiy // Bezopasnost' zhiznedeyatel'nosti. 2005. № 10 (prilozhenie). 24 s.
Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V., Ushakov I.B. Matematicheskoe obespechenie otsenivaniya sostoyaniya material'nykh sistem // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2004. № 7 (prilozhenie). 32 s.
Vorona A.A., Gerasimenko V.D., Kozlovskiy E.A., Kukushkin Yu.A., Bogomolov A.V. Mediko-psikhologicheskoe prognozirovanie professional'noy gotovnosti vypusknika voenno-uchebnogo zavedeniya // Voenno-meditsinskiy zhurnal. 2012. T. 333. № 1. S. 40-44.
Bogomolov A.V., Zueva T.V., Chikova S.S., Golosovskiy M.S. Ekspertno–analiticheskoe obosnovanie prioritetnykh napravleniy sovershenstvovaniya sistemy preduprezhdeniya biologicheskikh terroristicheskikh aktov // Informatika i sistemy upravleniya. 2009. № 4. S. 134–136.
Maistrou A.I., Bogomolov A.V. Technology of automated medical diagnostics using fuzzy linguistic variables and consensus ranking methods // IFMBE Proceedings World Congress on Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering: Diagnostic and Therapeutic Instrumentation, Clinical Engineering. Ser. "World Congress on Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering: Diagnostic and Therapeutic Instrumentation, Clinical Engineering" Munich, 2009. Pp. 38-41.
Bogomolov A.V., Gridin L.A., Kukushkin Yu.A., Ushakov I.B. Diagnostika sostoyaniya cheloveka: matematicheskie podkhody. M.: Meditsina, 2003. 464 s.
Shibanov G.P. Poryadok formirovaniya ekspertnykh grupp i provedeniya kollektivnoy ekspertizy // Informatsionnye tekhnologii. 2003. №12. S. 26-29.
Maksimov I.B., Stolyar V.P., Bogomolov A.V. Prikladnaya teoriya informatsionnogo obespecheniya mediko-biologicheskikh issledovaniy. M.: Binom, 2013. 312 s.
Bogomolov A.V., Chikova S.S., Zueva T.V., Tushnova L.K. Metodicheskoe obespechenie obosnovaniya prioritetnykh napravleniy sovershenstvovaniya sistemy preduprezhdeniya biologicheskikh terroristicheskikh aktov // Tekhnologii zhivykh sistem. 2006. T.3, № 4. S.33–42.
Kukushkin Yu.A., Vorona A.A., Bogomolov A.V., Chistov S.D. Riskometriya zdorov'ya personala ob'ektov po unichtozheniyu khimicheskogo oruzhiya // Analiz riska zdorov'yu. 2014. № 3. S. 26-33.
Bogomolov A.V., Kukushkin Yu.A. Matematicheskoe obespechenie meta-analiza rezul'tatov nezavisimykh eksperimental'nykh mediko-biologicheskikh issledovaniy // Informatika i sistemy upravleniya. 2011. № 4. S. 65-74