Abstract: This research is focused on the processes of situational medical analysis and prediction, which is characterized by uncertainty and, in many cases, is impacted by a lack of retrospective statistical information, which would allow to build adequate mathematical prediction models. The abovementioned issues substantiate the necessity for solving the problem at hand, with the help of experts who are capable of producing quality predictions on the basis of rich professional experience in solving such problems. The author produces a scientifically substantiated, tested situational medical prediction methodology, basing their solutions on expert assistance in the target area. The methodology of the research is based on collecting and processing expert information theory, medical IT and medical statistics. The emergence of a methodological base for situational medical prognosis as a system of stages of factological data and expert judgment processing is the main result of this research. The decision-making assistance system, based on the real-time process and analysis of the existing situation, combined with generated variants of sanitary and hygienic monitoring, assists with prediction of disease spread and charting the situation, calculation of personnel and materiel requirements for realizing treatment and prophylactic procedure complexes, and reaching adequate administrative decisions.

Keywords: situational medical situation, mathematical prognosis, expert information prognosis, medical IT, medical prognosis, health administration, administrative decisions, uncertainty predictions, multi-stage expertise, decision-making support

Abstract: The author examines immigration control and international cooperation in regulating migration. This work points out the importance of all directions in migration politics and demonstrates their defining traits and differences. Migration control manifests in both, legal documentation and the work of public authorities. This article examines the powers that authorities exercise, as well as the volume of said power in Russian Federation. International cooperation in migration control is also a valuable study subject, as a numerical increase of external challenges for national security becomes evident. The heart of the migration policy area that is being studied in this work is defined by a high degree of cooperation between public authorities: the Federal Migration Service, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Federal Security Service, Federal Bailiff Service, Federal Tax Service, Federal Employment Service. To fully understand the specifics of their work, it is necessary to address the main vectors of migration control in Russia. The scientific basis of this work is founded on comprehensive analysis of the Federal Migration Service practice, and the problems that it faces as it exercises its powers in migration control and international cooperation. This work presents the political and legal angle of the issue, which allows to view the migration issues in Russia more broadly.

Keywords: migration, control, deportation, decree, regulation, accounting, trend, violation, cooperation

Abstract: This article presents a comparative analysis of NATO’s political and military activity in Baltic sector countries (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia), on the background of the developing Ukrainian crisis. The author points out the increase in frequency and intensity of military exercises by NATO countries and its overt anti-Russian vector. The author analyzes NATO leadership’s decisions in implementing the Newport (Wales, Great Britain) Summit’s decisions in additional weapons placement in Baltic countries, and in creating a rapid reaction force. The methodological basis of this research is the systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political, geopolitical and cultural-civilizational approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling, observation. The author reaches conclusions regarding NATO’s provocative work to involve neutral Baltic countries into the Alliance – Sweden and Finland. The author points out that the Baltic region, along with Ukraine, one of the major tension points between Russian Federation and NATO.

Keywords: administration, politics, world order, geopolitics, NATO, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukrainian crisis, Baltic region.

Abstract: This article is focused on the evolution of modern Russia-NATO cooperation. The author addresses the starting points of their partnership, and analyzes the agreements signed and structures created to support them. The key Acts that define the evolution of Russia-NATO relations are the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, and the 2002 Summit Cooperation Act, according to which the Russia-NATO permanent council and the Russia-NATO Council were founded. The methodological basis of this research is the systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political, geopolitical, cultural-civilizational approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling, observation. The author focuses his attention on comparing the two structures, and this allows him to reach conclusions on the dynamics of priorities in their cooperation. The author also analyzes key directions between parties in the context of modern institutes and touches the topic of modern Russia-NATO crisis.

Keywords: administration, trends, USA, Russia, NATO, diplomacy, interests, values, security.

Abstract: A similar question was asked in another article called “An attempt to understand China’s development”, which was published in International Relations Journal on February 11, 18 and 23, 2013. In this article, we attempt to take another glance at the available facts and will try to find out how well-substantiated are both, positive and negative impressions of the observers of China’s grand change. For this attempt not to be reduced to simple discourse, we employ comparative and political analysis, selecting China and the USSR for comparing development dynamics. The methodological basis of this research consists of systemic, structural-fucntional, comparative-historical, comparative-political, geopolitical, cultural-civilizational approaches, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. The major changes in China’s national economy planning occurred in the timeframe of creating the 10th 5-year plan (2000-2005), on the background of China’s entrance into World Trade Organization, accelerating the restructuring of world economy, spread of information and new high technologies, the computerization of society and the development of scientific and technical progress, substantial increase of transnational corporations and the broadening of their work’s scale. The resulting effect was China’s considerable changes in national economy – changes that affected the changes in China’s national economy plans. The main changes in the planning system, linked with the transition from directive to indicative planning, have started during the 10th 5-year plan drafting (2001-2005), which signified a full transition from quality to quality in planning.

Keywords: administration, politics, China, trend, conflict, economy, social and economic system, values, state

Abstract: This article explores key vectors in Russia-NATO member countries cooperation. The author examines the three main vectors: war on terror, arms control and the Afghanistan vector. Analyzing the cooperation dynamics along those lines, the author points out the positive results, as well as challenges that arise. Broader and deeper cooperation is hindered by international crises (the Caucasus crisis in 2008 and the Ukrainian crisis (2014). The methodological basis of this research consists of the systemic, structural-functional, comparative-historic, comparative-political, geopolitical and cultural-civilizational approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. Each time the mentioned world crises (Ukraine in 2013-2014 and South Ossetia in 2008) lead to a halt in cooperation, freezing of joint programs and joint institutes. However, the nature of modern threats does not let the parties walk down the path of confrontation, which inevitably leads to the renewal of cooperation along the main vectors.

Keywords: administration, politics, Russia, geopolitics, NATO, diplomacy, state, interests, values, security

Abstract: This article examines the influence of social ideas around a profession that influence professional success. Public servants of varying positions are the subject of this research. Why some public servants are successful in their line of work, while others don’t achieve as much, if anything at all; how aware are the public servants of the system of professional requirements tied to their professional function; those questions, among others, have lead us to researching the structure of role expectations for public servants. The authors employed role analysis, which is seldom used in modern research practice (A. Kudashev, T. Lister, M. Loydt, M. Nuya, A.I. Solovyev), and does not reach upon the psychological mechanisms of public servant’s role expectations. The reconstruction of existing cognitive structures of collective consciousness that mediate professional-role expectations of public servants was the goal of the empirical analysis conducted by the author, who also performed an analytical expert evaluation, aimed at producing intellectual constructs that would allow the subjects (public servants of varying professional categories, experience and success) to be scaled across a multitude of criteria (elements).

Keywords: administration, trends, command roles, field of expectations, social expectations, semantic differential, success, values, conflict, security

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to discover and analyze the major, aggregated and measurable factors that define a state’s or region’s security levels. Factors that impact national security (population and its structure, territory, technology level), are studied in order to build a mathematical model for regional, national and global security. In order to evaluate the model’s parameters and its verification, the author employs historical, statistical and analytical data that characterize the security of a state or region: population numbers and composition, territory size, social and economic characteristics, innovation index, etc. Along with the basic model, the author composed a dynamic model that reflects the changes in security, depending on ethnic growth, or reduction in population numbers, as well as affected by technological development. Using the systemic, axiological and historical approaches, and methods of mathematical modeling, the author formulated criteria for national and regional security that reflect the dichotomy of two values: sovereignty (abilities and capabilities for self-realization and freedom) and preservation (order, convenience, comfort). In the conception of this model the author uses the production function and the Pareto distribution. The model parameter evaluation is performed, based on Russian Federation’s statistical data, as well as historical and statistical security data for World War I participant countries. On the example of Austrian-Hungarian Empire’s dissolution, and based on the results of calculations, the author formulates the following hypothesis: Preservation levels of 0.4-0.6 is an indicator for possible dissolution of a large, multinational state.

Keywords: security, national security, regional security, geopolitics, sovereignty, mathematical model, security criteria, function of sovereignty, function of preservation, technological factor.

Abstract: The issues of accounting for human factor in complex ergatic (man-machine) system function management, without sufficient (insufficient for statistic prognosis) data on extraordinary (emergency) situations brought on by the human factor, as well as data on the preconditions for the development of such situations, form the subject of this research. The author attempts to solve the problem of evaluating the probability of an event that is important for ergatic system management (taking human factor characteristics into account), that was not being observed during the timeframe being studied. The research methodology is based on the “man-machine” system operator functional state theory, the probability theory, as well as mathematical statistics. The novelty of this research is appraisal of functional reliability of the prediction process for pilot reliability, accounting for probability of piloting parameters exceeding operating restrictions in flight, as it is realized in the automated flight risk management system. The results of this research are general in nature, allowing them to be used for adaptive control of any ergatic system functioning.

Keywords: human factor accounting, ergatic system management, human functional reliability, acceptable risk concept, system condition management, statistical prognosis, operational limits accounting, ergatic systems reliability, preventive risk management, safety monitoring

Abstract: This article examines the major stages of evolution for communications technologies and points out the particular traits of the modern stage of their development. The author conducts analysis of main approaches to defining New media, reviews their main types and offers a unique approach to using new media in information policies of public space actors. Means of communication and their role in information politics already are a subject for research throughout the world for quite some time. All sources indicate that communication itself is one of the key factors that define individual consciousness and the configuration of social and political relations during the given time period. The methodological basis of this research consists of the systemic, structural-functional, comparativehistorical, comparative-political, geopolitical, and cultural-civilizational approaches, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. Communication processes influence the structure of public life, and thus, the methods and tools of information politics in public space on a grand scale: the changes in means and technologies of communication inevitably lead to restructuring of social, political, economic and other areas of social functioning. With all that said, the spread of Internet and the emerging of New media present a plethora of unique opportunities for public space communication, and it is wrong to assume that, information politics is easier now than before. On the contrary, actors of communication that are used to work within classic communication paradigms bring significant harm to their reputation by vigorous, yet incompetent usage of New media, which require a deeper understanding of technological and social particularities of developing online resources.

Keywords: administration, politics, New Media, communication, blogs, means of communication, media channels, information politics, microblogs, social networks