Romanov E.V., Drozdova T.V..
Formation of the system of sustainable reproduction of human resources for the scientific-technological development of Russia: forecasts and risks. Part I.
// Modern Education. – 2017. – є 3.
– P. 96-108.
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Abstract: The Scientific and Technological Development Strategy of the Russian Federation sets a goal for establishing the national innovation system. The first stage of realization of this goal (2017-2020) stipulates the formation of integral system of reproduction and engagement of human resources for the scientific-technological development of the country. Higher education is viewed as the mainstream social institution capable of ensuring the solution of this task. The goal of this work consists in determination of the potential threats to reproduction of the human resources in the higher school, as well as identification of the prospects aimed at preservation and augmentation of the human capital. The authors provide a long-term forecast for the development of higher education until 2026. Based on the expected change in the population size of the age groups between 17 and 30 years old in one-year intervals and the development trends of higher education, the article determines the contradictions of financial support of higher education and prospects for preservation of human resources of the higher school. It is established that in the current situation, the actual funding of the higher education does not correspond with the standards required by law “On Education in the Russian Federation”. Thus, population size in the age from 17 to 30 years old in 2014 (29,321 people) and in 2015 (28,579.9 people) suggests that on the account of the federal budgetary appropriation, must receive education 2,345.7 and 2,286.4 people correspondingly. On actual basis, in 2014 and 2015 at the expense of federal budged, were educated 1,990.5 and 1,859.9 people correspondingly. In strategic prospect, the size of population in the age of 17-30 years old will continue decreasing, while after 2018, the number of students will start to increase. Such contradiction must be resolved through introducing the appropriate corrections. The amount of students of state universities, having achieved a minimal number in 2018/19 academic year (3,682.0 people), by 2025 will exceed the number of students in 2015/16 academic year, counting 4,132.0 people. The authors present the negative and moderate scenarios of changes in the composition of teaching staff of the state higher educational facilities. It is proven that considering the dynamics of the development of higher education, the number of teaching staff of the state universities in the mid-term perspective must be not lower than 240,000 people.
Keywords: structure of teaching staff, decrease in number of teachning staff, moderate scenario, negative scenario, steady reproduction of shots, long-term forecast, standard of financing, higher education, strategy of scientific and technological development, maintenance of personnel excessiveness
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