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Shumov V.V. Public and National Security: Analysis, Modelling and Verification

Published in journal "Politics and Society", 2015-3 in rubric "Social studies and monitoring", pages 303-319.

Resume: Scientific, axiological and historical approaches have been used to consider the model of national (public) security, which reflects the dualism of the values of development and preservation, taking into account the following factors: population of the state, area, the level of technological development and its convertation to actions, diversity of population. The parameters are evaluated by the example of participation of a range of countries in the First and Second World wars, as well as the military campaign of the USA in Iraq. The parameters characterising the diversity of population are based on the statistical data of the regions and ethnicities of Russia (USSR). The demonstrated model meaningfully characterises the potentials of states and societies. The convertations of these potentials to real developments depends on multiple factors studied by humanities. The study involves mathematical and statistical methods of analysis of social processes and phenomena. The parameters have been evaluated using the least squares method. Having used the suggested model, the author concludes that the European Union has probably reached the limits of its enlargement, and it is possible that some states may withdraw their membership. Also, function values of sovereignty, preservation and security have been calculated for the countries of G7 (USA, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, France, Canada and Italy) and E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey). Total function value of sovereignty for the E7 countries is 1.7, whereas for the G7 states it is 4.6.

Keywords: public security, national security, nation, ethnicity, sovereignty, historical approach, axiological approach, modelling, security criterion , mathematical model

DOI: 10.7256/1812-8696.2015.3.13678

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