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Software systems and computational methods
Reference:

Lushkin A.M. Mathematical software of automated predictive flight safety monitoring

Abstract: The paper presents a study of procedures of automated monitoring and regulation of the safety of aircraft, as well as procedures for the automated control of the changes in the air-operated transport system. Analysis of the dynamics of the safety of aircraft is required to obtain an objective assessment of the effectiveness of corporate safety management system and its planned development, that is a requirement of the standards of the International Air Transport Association and recommended practice of ICAO. A detection of unacceptable values in the current or forecasted level of the safety reflects the state of aviation transport system, characterized by a potentially high risk that requires a rapid response from analysis of aviation incidents and prerequisites to them to determining the cause of unacceptable changes with subsequent regulations in safety management. To solve this problem author uses results of regular monthly monitoring of the current level of safety in the airline statistics of aviation events registered in the safety management system of the company, which was then processed using the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. The novelty of the research is in created software for automated predictive safety monitoring of airlines using statistical detection of potentially dangerous changes in the level of safety, based on the analysis of retrospective information obtained as a result of monitoring of the safety of the flight, taking into account the requirements of international standards in the field of civil aviation.

Keywords:

monitoring of aircraft incidents, flight safety management, flight safety risks, statistical criterion, monitoring flight safety, statistical analysis, aviation avariology, management of risks, retrospective analysis, statistical forecasting

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