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Nevolin I.V., Eganov D.A. The Consequences of Tax Reform for the Executors of Government Contracts

Published in journal "Taxes and Taxation", 2015-2 in rubric "PREDICTION AND PLANNING IN TAXATION", pages 86-97.

Resume: This paper investigates the consequences of changes in tax rates for companies that perform government contracts.  Based on the case study of the company participating in road construction, it analyzes the changes in the accumulation of capital with an increase of VAT rates from 18 to 20% and personal income tax from 13 to 15%, respectively. The interest to that topic is provoked by, on the one hand, the discussion of the possibility of such an increase, and on the other hand, by the need to find a balance between supporting entrepreneurship and filling the budget. For a quantitative estimation of the impact of higher interest rates, the work uses the performance indicators of existing enterprise and data on public procurement. A small company is engaged in construction and repairs of roads, and to expand its activities the company needs some additional equipment that could be provided through leasing or purchased with bank loan. The equipment is used for works on government contracts which provide for all payments. The cash flow is exposed to the risks such as defeat in the competition, broken equipment or schedule breakdown. When in the course of its activities, the company is facing losses, it takes out short-term loans. To assess the changes in the retained earnings amount which is accumulated on the settlement account and can be used, for example, for investment, the research uses simulation modeling. Modeling with the software package Cristal Ball has shown that that the increase in VAT up to 20% and 15% in personal income tax may reduce the accumulations of enterprises to minimum 8% over a 5-year period in nominal terms. It should be noted that the estimation does not take into account changes in interest rates of the financial sector. So far all estimates of the increase in tax rates are macroeconomic indicators while the present work attempts to match an increase in tax rates and supporting mechanism of the state order.
 

Keywords: scenario analysis, risks, leasing, tax reform, simulation, construction, tax policy, government procurement, accumulation, investment

DOI: 10.7256/1812-8688.2015.2.13042

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