Petukhov A.Y., Krasnitsiy N.V. Assessment of the political stability in Russia: problem of an effective measurement

Abstract: The authors make an attempt to analyze the results of a research on the political stability in Russia over the 8 year period using one of the characteristic indexing methods of the Fund for Peace USA and an influential American magazine Foreign Policy — the “Fragile States Index”. As an alternative to such methods the authors offer their own mathematical model of calculating the level of political stability based on the authors’ socioenergetic approach. It is concluded that the politicization of the assessment makes the ratings become just another instrument of a political pressure. From the perspective of the political analysis, the authors’ model gives a more precise evaluation of the existing reality and is also capable of forecasting the progression of the situation, which makes it more effective in a number of particular cases. Therefore, the prognostic nonlinear dynamic models (although they use static data) are more independent and politically neutral instruments in the assessment of the parameters of power and country.

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