Rapid response and tactics
Novikov A.V. —
Methods and models of assessing the choice of strategy in carrying out terrorist attacks
// National Security.
– 2019. – ¹ 5.
– P. 48 - 65.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2019.5.30824 URL: https://en. nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=30824
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This article explores the problem of assessing the terrorists’ choice of strategy for attacking. Particular attention is given to the practices of implementation of tactical innovations to the activity of terrorist organizations. Using the theory of art of destruction, the author provides a brief characteristics to the criteria of innovativeness of the means of carrying out attacks. The first part of the article examines the link between the assessment of tactical innovations, characteristic of weapons, and the purpose of each attack. The results of two-component research allow understanding the nature, difficulty and aspect of tactical innovations. In the course of this work, the author applied the correlation-regression data analysis; factor analysis of the processing of expert opinions; verification of reliability of the scales using Cronbach's alpha. The research results suggest basic assessment of tactical innovations, which may be used for estimating the innovative maturity of terrorist organizations, and serve as the foundation for development of the more adaptive counterterrorism strategies. The author underlines that execution of attacks with high level of novelty of the selected tactic were most likely with the use of explosives, rather than other possible types of weapons. The attacks with high level of tactical novelty and relevance most often target state objects.
criteria of innovativeness, tactics, political violence, violent extremism, terrorism, malevolent creativity, innovations, countering terrorism, factor analysis, regression analysis
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