Abstract: The subject of the study is to assess the risks in mining of hydrocarbon deposits. The authors suggests a model of an expert system automated assessment of mining risks. The expert system includes a database containing information on the status of the development of a number of deposits of Tomsk region, detailed classification of risk arising during the mining planning process and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields, and the factors causing the risks. Interconnections of risk factors and patterns of their origin established on the basis of expert estimations. To evaluate the development of the risks proposed to use a comprehensive risk characterization. The rating is based on fuzzy logic. Integrated risk profile allows developing an optimal strategy taking into account the current state of the field mining. Expert system of integrated assessment of mining risks brings together experts from different fields of knowledge and provides a general picture including comprehensive assessment of risks, probabilities and risk profiles helpful to managers and other personnel.

Keywords: comprehensive assessment of risks, fuzzy logic, expert system, mining risk classification, mining risk assessment, mining risks, mining of hydrocarbon deposits, designing field of mining, modeling fields, hydrocarbon deposits

Abstract: In modern robotics a problem of development of systems, algorithms and methods of spatial orientation and navigation of robots remains one of the most urgent tasks. The article suggests an algorithm for the simulation of optical flow based on the dynamics of particle motion. Unlike conventional methods of calculation, the author focuses on those aspects of the decision problem of determining the optical flow as the use of methods of calculation of the Fourier series, taking into account elements of the laws of hydrodynamics. This allows considering the problem of determining optical flow with a different, newer perspective. Theoretical research methods are based on methods of digital image processing, pattern recognition, digital transformation and system analysis. Optical flow calculations in this problem are reduced to the determination of the displacement of each point of the frame. It allows constructing the velocity field of each particle of light, the envelope of the selected object. The research results are applicable in the field of modernization of management systems, monitoring and processing of the received picture and video to enhance the effectiveness of work performed by providing a more accurate vision. Therefore, the portability and autonomy of work robots is increased, which in turn may affect the economic component complexes and the use of robotic systems.

Keywords: pattern recognition, computer vision, technical vision, velocity field, the dynamics of particle motion, optical flow, simulation, robotics, vector field, image processing

Abstract: For companies involved in the design and manufacture of a wide class of avionics products (from removable functional modules to navigation systems) ensuring the reliability and quality of products in general are an integral part of the working process. Despite the wide range of software solutions offered, some questions of automation of work to ensure the reliability remain unsolved. One of the components proposed for Automation is the information support of decision-making on the development of measures to improve the reliability. The system is based on the results of analysis enhance reliability by efficiently developed earlier actions, that will determine the direction of the newly developed measures to address the causes of failures. To solve the problem the authors carried out an analysis of the information and analytical activities of the units involved in the design, manufacture and far warranty and post-warranty maintenance of avionics products. The developed model of information support is a database of necessary and sufficient for the timely execution of work on the reliability in the proper form in compliance with the requirements of standards. The implementation of the proposed automated information system of support based on the reliability of the avionics product design, and evaluation of statistical data on the results of the operation will reduce the turnaround time for the reliability and improve the quality of the designed and manufactured products.

Keywords: production, processing statistical data, test, design, infallibility, reliability, quality, database, automation, Information system

Abstract: An important to ensure the efficiency of the solar panels is to carry out periodic monitoring of tightness of connections and inspect their cleanliness. In order for solar cells to work more efficiently the authors suggest use of intelligent monitoring and measurement system. This article presents the development of a scalable system of energy-efficient mechatronic devices with an intelligent control system. Development refers to computer engineering and can be used in services of highly reliable fault-tolerant integrated onboard control complexes in the energy sector and other fields requiring high reliability computing complex, while maintaining fault tolerance and hardware failures. As a means of decision-making when selecting development tools used by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, Saaty method). The novelty of the research is to create a new system service software, the full adjustment of the system software of the automated collection and storage of information on observed parameters, visualization parameters of the four storages and solar converters, real time software updating, safeguarding the basic functionality of the system at the damage and loss of data and protection against emergencies. The purpose of this system is the management of solar panels in real-time automatic monitoring and analysis of the performance of solar panels.

Keywords: programming, optimization of control systems, alternative energy, solar power, scalable systems of energy-efficient mechatronic d, intelligent Control Systems, development of software, service maintenance, software, radioelectronics

Abstract: The object of the study is technology of hiding method calls. Hidden calls are need to hide: entity dependencies; data processing logic; algorithms. The methods used to complete the task are limited by language technologies and its performance. Method can be called directly and indirectly: via the bootstrap method; from native code (JNI); using Reflection; using JRE 1.7, InvokeDynamic. The examples with source code are given. The authors conclude that the most promising methods among considered is invokedynamic technology. The study  present analysis of such methods as the bootstrap method, calling method from through native code, obfuscation calls via Reflection and InvokeDynamic. The article discusses various ways to conceal the method invocation. The characteristic features of obfuscation for most popular ones are reviewed. The most promising among the discussed methods is  invokedynamic technology. It allows completely removing method signature from the source code, leaving only the service information for the bootstrap method. With proper implementation of the bootstrap method it is possible to create bytecode, which will be impossible to decompile into valid Java code, Groovy's or Scala.

Keywords: InvokeDynamic, Reflection mechanism, native code, bootstrap, obfuscate, Data protection, Java, source code, method call, listing

Abstract: In article the approach to forecasting of time series groups with use of technologies of the cluster analysis and the principles of multiobjective optimization has been offered. The description of time series – centroids of clusters with use of the forecasting models on the base of the strictly binary trees and the multiobjective modified clonal selection algorithm in case of which the implementation of two quality indicators of models – the affinity indicator based on calculation of an average forecasting relative error and the tendencies discrepancy indicator are involved in selection process of the best forecasting models has been developed. Accounting of quality two indicators of the forecasting model is realized with use of the Pareto-dominance principles applied when forming new populations of the forecasting models in the multiobjective modified clonal selection algorithm. Within the solution of a problem of multiobjective optimization when forming new population of the forecasting models for maintenance of its high variety it is offered to consider values of the crowding distance of the forecasting models. Prospects of application of the general forecasting models created on the base of the strictly binary trees for forecasting of the time series entering one cluster are shown. The results of experimental studies confirming the efficiency of the offered approach to short-term and mid-term forecasting of time series groups within the solution of a problem of multiobjective optimization are given.

Keywords: tendencies discrepancy indicator, affinity indicator, multiobjective optimization, clonal selection algorithm, strictly binary tree, forecasting model, time series, average error rate, Pareto-dominance, crowding distance

Abstract: The subject of this study is an algorithm for determining the optimal parameters of shallow thin-walled spatial geometrically nonlinear shells on the elastic base. A main attention is paid to the selection algorithm optimization of such structures and its adaptation to the problem of finding the optimal form of shallow shell construction taking into account the material nonlinearity. The paper also demonstrates the possibility of achieving significant savings in volume (weight) of structures such as thin shallow shells on elastic base by changing its shape and thickness distribution. The optimization algorithm is based on a modification of a method of random search, including a combination of random and gradient search, as well as a method of "ravines". The algorithm for determining the optimal parameters of thin-walled spatial structures can be used to determine critical force and stresses for geometrically nonlinear shallow shells on an elastic base with a variable middle surface shape under various constraints. The novelty of the research is to use the combined method of finding the extremum of nonlinear functions with various restrictions.

Keywords: objective function, optimal shape, elastic base, optimization, shallow shells, geometric nonlinearity, random search, gradient descent, algorithm, construction simulation

Abstract: The article focuses on the modeling of information dissemination in online social networks through reposts. The author considers the threshold model and an independent cascade model of information spreading in network. In the context of the independent cascade model author suggests a method of estimating the probability of spreading of information for each pair of connected users. The article reviews visible activity of online social network users that affect the likelihood for a particular user to read the information message, published by one of his friends, and then make a repost. The methodology of the study is related to the mathematical modeling of social processes. To build the model the author uses elements of set theory, graph theory. The main conclusion is that of the models considered (the threshold model and the independent cascade model), which both are special cases of same generalized model, it is the independent cascade model that most accurately reflects the logic of the process of information spreading in the online social network via reposts. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that using the results for independent cascade model the author provides a method for the evaluation of information transmission probabilities for each pair of connected users.

Keywords: connected users, information receiption probability, information diffusion, threshold model, independent cascades model, modeling, social network analysis, online social network, feed, repost

Abstract: The object of this study is strategic planning in the management process. The authors note the importance of innovation and strategic planning in forming an innovative economy. The article gives detailed review of the main tool of strategic analysis - mathematical modeling. The authors make a conclusion about the need to use a more flexible mathematical apparatus, such as the apparatus of game theory. The authors also note that the theory of games is a very complex area of scientific knowledge. It is especially important to understand its application boundaries. A simplified interpretation of the apparatus of game theory can be very dangerous. The theoretical analysis has been used as a method of research. Individual aspects, features and characteristics of mathematical modeling in strategic planning were identified and reviewed. The main conclusion of this paper is to identify and clearly marked a promising field of research. Since the prospects and hopes placed by the authors on the apparatus of game theory for strategic planning aimed at the transition to an innovation economy, can significantly increase the efficiency of the state management of the economy and to ensure its rapid transition from a resource-production to the economy.

Keywords: oil dependence, planning, innovative development, analysis, model, math modeling, strategic management, game theory, innovations, strategic planning

Abstract: The object of research is the model of artificial immune system. Subject of the research is providing a method of constructing a fuzzy decoder. The authors proposed to use fuzzy membership function as the decoders. This functions describes the relevance of a controlled parameter to a critical situation. Using such an approach based on fuzzy decoders allows to move from binary quantitative classification to fuzzy qualitative estimates. The article present an example o f construction of a decoder for fuzzy term “semiperimeter length of L, describing a fragment of the designed product, should be no more than 0.7 nm”. On the basis of the function CON(μ1(L)), describing fuzzy matching condition “very close to 0.7 nm” the authors build a function μ5(L), describing fuzzy matching condition “a little less than 0.7 nm”. Fuzzy decoder for conformity assessment interval is based on the given interval membership function. The authors give a graph of a μ7 decoder  function semiperimeter on the length L, describing the belonging to “semiperimeter desired length from 0.55 to 0.7 nm” condition. By analogy with the conditions “very close to 0.7 nm” and “slightly close to 0.7 nm” it is possible to determine a membership functions “very in range from 0.55 to 0.7 nm” and “slightly in range from 0.55 to 0.7 nm”. The research method is based on the construction of fuzzy decoders describing the undesirable state of the computational process. Fuzziness is described by the membership function. The novelty of the research is in getting fuzzy decoders receptive to fuzzy commands. Using the corresponding fuzzy membership function μ decoder it is possible adjust the process of estimating the degree of closeness of the controlled parameter to a critical situation. Applying CON and DIL functions to the decoder functions allows to change their susceptibility on test data from 20-30% up to 200% -300%.

Keywords: decision making , fuzzy approach, membership function, adaptation, expert systems, semiperimeter, fuzzy condition, decoder, adverse selection, artificial immune system

Abstract: Currently, more attention is paid to the protection of information resources against various threats. There are numerous methods of risk assessment and management, which are aimed at minimizing the threats to information security. However, the risk assessment generally considered a threat, that is, under the action of all potential factors. Wherein the one or other factor may have more influence on the particular threat than others. The paper presents a mathematical model for evaluating the impact coefficient of a single factor on information security threats. The study was based on the evaluation of probability of occurrence and criticality of unrelated threats to information security. The study was based on the probability of occurrence and criticality of unrelated threats to information security. The mathematical model presented in the paper makes it possible to assess the characteristics of threats under the influence of a specific factor. This in turn helps to understand how much a single factor strongly influences information security. The data obtained makes it possible to optimize the protection system counteracting the most critical factors.

Keywords: expert opinion , optimization of protection, threat risk, information security, human factor, impact factor, critical threats, likelihood of the threat, influence factor, mathematical model

Abstract: The subject of study is a new segmentation algorithm that allows improving the quality and speed of image processing in comparison with known algorithms. The authors consider the problem of segmentation of medical images and existing approaches to its solution. It is noted that segmentation is the most difficult part in the processing and analysis of medical images of biological tissue, since it is necessary select areas that correspond to different objects or structures on histological specimens: cells, organelles and artifacts. Particular attention is paid to algorithms of particle swarms and k-means. In solving the problem, authors use swarm intelligence methodology, cluster analysis, the theory of evolutionary computation, mathematical statistics, computer modeling and programming. The article suggests a new hyper-heuristic algorithm and its modification to solve the problem of segmentation of medical images in order to improve image quality and processing speed. Authors present experimental results obtained on the basis of test data from a known set of medical MRI images using the software developed by the authors. The optimal values of coefficients that determine the behavior and efficiency hyper heuristics that reduces the number of iterations of the algorithm are defined. The results demonstrate the advantage and confirm the efficiency of hyper heuristics algorithms in systems of digital medical imaging solutions to the problem of segmentation of medical images.

Keywords: cluster, pixel, k-means algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, hyper heuristics, segmentation images, optimization, distance, experiment, modeling